Another YouGov poll points to risk of hung parliament

We had a YouGov poll overnight suggesting a 7% Tory lead. Nigel Nelson of The People has just Twittered this YouGov finding for his newspaper tomorrow:

For reasons outlined here I don't believe that a 40% to 31% actual result would produce a hung parliament. Nonetheless, the Tories need a more disciplined campaign and a more positive message if they are to be sure of avoiding an indecisive election result.

Tim Montgomerie