Conservative Diary

« William Hague accuses Brown of losing moral compass over U-turn on IRA families and Libya | Main | Beyond Afghanistan, Liam Fox makes the case for investment in defence »

YouGov poll for the Telegraph puts Tory lead at 13% - but the details suggest David Cameron will struggle to attain a big majority

Benedict Brogan has blogged that tomorrow's Daily Telegraph carries a new YouGov poll with the following figures:

YouGov Comparisons are with the YouGov poll for Thursday's Sun.

The paper's political editor Andrew Porter draws out a number of other conclusions from the survey which will remind Conservatives of the need to guard against complacency:

"Nearly two thirds are still unconvinced about whether there is substance behind David Cameron’s words. And more than half agree that it is hard to know what the Conservatives stand for at the moment.

"A dangerous north-south divide shows Mr Cameron making progress in the south, but Labour still polls better in the north with 33 per cent backing the Tories and 35 per cent Labour. With few Tory gains expected in Scotland and only marginally more in Wales, Mr Cameron needs to improve his standing outside the south if he is to deliver a sizeable Conservative win."

He goes on to state some some facts which echo my a previous blog post of mine in which I cautioned fellow Conservatives to take a reality check every now and again, look at the scale of the task ahead and remember that not a single vote has yet been cast before talking about the scale of the Tory landslide to come:

"Today, in a detailed analysis, the Telegraph reveals the true extent of the electoral mountain Mr Cameron has to climb if he is to win power. To win a majority the Tories need to hold every seat they won in 2005 and then find a further 117 others.

"Not since 1931 have they made that many gains. In 1970 and 1979, occasions when the Tories won power from a Labour Government the gains were only 77 and 63 respectively.

"The swing from Labour also needs to be 6.9 per cent to secure that prized majority. The previous best under “normal circumstances” was in Margaret Thatcher’s 1979 triumph when the swing was 5.4 per cent."

Jonathan Isaby


You must be logged in using Intense Debate, Wordpress, Twitter or Facebook to comment.