New YouGov poll suggests economic recovery won't rescue Labour

From now on it's total politics.  The August season ends today and from tomorrow we are in countdown to the General Election.

Alistair Darling gets in some early fire this morning with an article in The Guardian that seeks to take credit for the nascent economic recovery:

"I am determined the recovery will be sustainable and lasting, that no one should be consigned to the scrap-heap, like so many were in the 1980s and 1990s. The Tories were wrong then, just as they are wrong now – David Cameron and George Osborne appear to wallow in the prospect of swingeing cuts, unwilling to spell out their economic and social consequences."

There are at least four reasons why recovery won't rescue Labour:

• It will be a slow recovery and unemployment will continue to rise as a lagging economic indicator.
• People will not necessarily feel better off... as taxes begin to rise to pay off the huge Darling/Brown deficit (VAT will go up at year end/ fuel duty has risen 2p today)... interest rates may start to rise again as inflation worries grow... and the public spending squeeze will begin to hurt frontline services.
• Most people know that the British recession has been deeper than most of our competitor economies because Brown's mismanagement.
• Labour's multitude other failures on crime, immigration, social breakdown... You are familiar with the list.

In today's Telegraph there is an opinion poll which does show that public confidence about the economy is growing but it shows a stable Tory lead of 16%.  Time will tell but I don't think that will change much.

Tim Montgomerie