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Conservatives 24% ahead in thirty most marginal seats

I'm not sure of exactly how the balance of Con/Lab and Con/LD seats but Crosby/Textor/Pepper have found that the Conservatives enjoy a massive 24% lead in the 30 top target seats for the Conservatives:

ThirtyTopTargets Tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph has the details.  The newspaper's Political Editor Patrick Hennessy concludes that "David Cameron's party is doing even better in vital "swing" constituencies than it is in the country as a whole."

A year ago the same poll found the Tories on 41%, Labour on 17% and the LibDems on 18%.

The Crosby/Textor/Pepper poll was carried out for Flying Matters.  75% of voters agreed that air passenger duty was a "stealth" tax and 89% were unaware that big increases in the duty will come into effect in November this year and next.

The most recent nationwide poll was from YouGov and found the Conservatives 14% ahead.

The ConservativeHome Poll of Polls has the Tories 14.8% ahead in a crude average of the latest polls from the big five opinion testing organisations.  If reflected in a General Election that sort of lead could produce a Conservative majority of 82 on a uniform swing.

Logo_small5cm Putting all this into perspective let's give tonight's final word to Populus and their July bulletin:

"A year ago, as Parliament rose for the summer, the average of published polls put the Conservatives on 42%, Labour on 26% and the Lib Dems on 19%. As MPs departed wearily for their summer break this year, the average of published polls for the month of July 2009 showed the Conservatives on 40%, Labour on 26% and the Lib Dems on 19%. The net effect of twelve months of frenetic political activity, argument, drama and farce is a 2% shift from the Conservatives to 'Others' (principally UKIP)."

Tim Montgomerie


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