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ComRes poll has Tory lead constant at 19% but both main parties take a hit

Further to the results of tonight's BPIX poll for tomorrow's Mail on Sunday, there is also tonight a new  ComRes poll, to be published in tomorrow's Independent on Sunday. The Conservative lead is constant at 19%, but both major parties are down five points in the wake of the daily revelations about MPs' expenses, meaning that Labour hits another new low in ComRes polling history. The figures are:

ComRes Meanwhile, combined "Others" are at 21%, up nine points.

Comparisons are with the ComRes/Independent poll published at the end of April and these new figures compute into a Conservative Commons majority of 140, according to the UK Polling Report Swing Calculator.

Some other statistics to be pulled out from the poll:

  • The Conservatives lead Labour among all regions and social groups – including Scotland;
  • 88% of people who voted Conservative in 2005 will vote Conservative now; 58% of people who voted Labour in 2005 say that they will vote Labour now; 69% of people who voted Lib Dem in 2005 will now vote Lib Dem; whilst 18% of people who voted Labour in 2005 will now vote for a minor party;
  • 15% of Labour voters and 11% of Lib Dem voters in 2005 are Tory voters now;
  • Only 37% of Labour identifiers are absolutely certain to vote, compared with 45% of LDs and 64% of Conservative identifiers.
  • 43% of people agree they are "very likely" to vote for one of the minor parties, such as the Green Party or UKIP, at the European elections;
  • 46% agree that "most MPs are honest and have been let down by the greed of a minority", whilst 50% disagree with that proposition;
  • 59% agree that David Cameron has dealt with the issue of MPs’ expenses better than Gordon Brown (31% disagree).

ComRes telephoned 1,010 adults between 13th and 14th May.


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