John O’Sullivan: The next election is probably already lost but a programme of long-term renewal may also help the Conservative Party maximise its vote against Brown

Former Special Adviser to Margaret Thatcher, John is now Editor-in-Chief of the international affairs magazine, The National Interest, Editor-at-Large of the magazine the National Review, and a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute.

The first step is to face reality. Gordon Brown will probably win the next election and, if he does not, the likely reason is that he will have been defeated by events in the real world. But be of good cheer. “Project Cameron” has been only a modest contributory factor to this discouraging prospect.

Its first phase—“I’m a Celebrity, Get Me out of Opposition”—never really took. It won few converts and gave a general impression of frivolity and cynicism which Brown has shrewdly exploited. Its second phase—here are the in-depth conservative policies at long last—has hit an obvious obstacle: any serious conservative policies are likely to clash with the fashionable postures of phase one, generating both ideological confusion and media embarrassment. See the coverage of the Redwood-Wolfson report.

Some journalists, justifying their own predictions, camouflage these failures with the line: “But Cameron has made the Conservatives electable again.” Really? A party that was only four points behind Labour in the 2005 election was always electable. Polls today show that the Tories, after a short bounce largely attributable to Blair’s unpopularity, are back to that level. So “Project Cameron” has not really improved matters but, on the other hand, the crisis of Toryism was never as deep as the more masochistic modernisers believed. A Tory revival is perfectly possible, though not guaranteed, if the party keeps its head and acts sensibly.

And there is a third reason for comfort: the actions needed for a long-term revival are pretty much the same as those required to profit from a Labour downturn before or during the next election. Let me suggest a few to the party leadership:

First, don’t strategise in public. It gives the impression, mentioned above, of insincerity and cynicism and subtly devalues any political or moral commitment you make. Policies should be justified on the grounds that they are good for the country, not that they are useful devices for getting elected.

Nick Wood: Cameron must tackle the Brownite glacier that threatens to engulf him (and then give voters some reasons to vote Conservative)

Former Times journalist Nick Wood was a media adviser to Conservative leaders William Hague and Iain Duncan Smith. He now runs Media Intelligence Partners.

Politicians face two key imperatives – to be right and to be popular. David Cameron’s biggest mistake has been to elevate popularity over being right.

He has become a political fashion victim, striking attitudes calculated to appeal to the chattering classes who dominate the Westminster village. But fashion is by definition ephemeral. During the dying days of the disintegrating Blair regime, it mattered little that Cameron was to be seen parading his concern about climate change by posing with huskies in the Arctic or warning about the perils of chocolate oranges. But while he fretted about distant reefs he failed to spot the more immediate threat posed by the shift in the political weather from Blair to Brown.

A big chill has descended upon the Conservatives, triggered by Brown’s eclipse of the tawdry glitz of the Blair era and the advent of “serious” politics with a socially conservative wrapping.

Cameron’s quest for popularity – his ‘Hug a Hoodie” phase – has had a doubly damaging effect. He has dismayed his natural supporters but he has also made himself appear lightweight and insubstantial alongside the Stakhanovite Brown.

Cameron must start to campaign for what is right and stop worrying about whether the BBC and The Guardian will judge it popular – a lot of the time they won’t.

By demonstrating that he is prepared to fight for what he believes in – and what his supporters believe in – he will at least start to improve his ratings and reputation in the leadership stakes. He will gain respect, even among people who don’t agree with him, because he will be perceived to be sincere. His biggest handicap as he anxiously contemplates the prospect of an autumn election is that Brown is viewed by the public as strong and as capable of leading the country through difficult times.

Let’s leave policies to Cameron. Suffice it to say his position on tax is muddled, his position on reform of health and education is too timid, and his profile in areas such as youth crime, Europe, immigration and waste of public money is almost invisible. He needs to do something about all of them fast.

Ruth Lea: Expose the underlying weaknesses of Brown’s economy and champion Euroscepticism

Ruth Lea is Director of the Centre for Policy Studies and Director of Global Vision.  She writes the sixth contribution to ConservativeHome's What David Cameron Should Do Next series.

In one of his leadership campaign speeches David Cameron said:

“Britain will do best if we apply our trusted Conservative principles of limited government, personal responsibility, sound money and national self-government”.

I, for one, would not disagree. And whilst I perfectly well understand the reasons for David’s re-branding of the party image – it was a necessary exercise - these basic principles behind Conservatism should surely drive his agenda forward in forthcoming months. It is only by using principles as the foundation for sound policies can any coherent strategy be developed and be understood by the electorate. 

Indeed I would suggest that it is already happening. Iain Duncan Smith’s report, warmly welcomed by the leadership, contained some long overdue truths about Britain’s social problems. David’s unqualified support for family and marriage is a breath of fresh air. Similarly, there are encouraging signs that John Redwood’s report on economic competitiveness, which promotes lower taxes and less onerous business regulation, will inform the leadership’s approach to economic policy. Gordon Brown’s 10 years of damage to the economy’s underlying health needs to be robustly challenged.

And then there is the EU – arguably the biggest issue of all. The Party’s recent insistence on the need for a referendum on the Reform Treaty is absolutely right. Gordon Brown’s claim that the Treaty is materially different from the Constitution is of course complete piffle. It cannot be emphasised enough that this Treaty is the final power grab by the EU in its determination to build economic and political union in Europe.

Polls show that the majority of British people, while liking Europe, are deeply suspicious, if not hostile, to the EU. David should not be embarrassed or deflected by the Party’s Federalist dinosaurs to drive forward a healthily sceptical European agenda which is in tune with the people.

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Daniel Finkelstein: Convince voters that the changes of the last eighteen months are real and will continue

Danny Finkelstein is Comment Editor of The Times and edits the Comment Central blog. Before joining the paper in 2001, he was adviser to both Prime Minister John Major and Conservative leader William Hague.

1. Keep calm. For two reasons. First, because all new Prime Ministers have a honeymoon, there's nothing you can do about it and it won't last forever. Second, because the electorate like you but worry about the party. They therefore need to believe that you are strong. Given your character serenity and optimism is the best way to convey this.

2. Reinforce the strategy. Moving towards the centre is the correct strategy, the only one. The problem isn't that people dislike a changed Tory Party, it is that they still don't believe the Tories have changed. So keep showing that you have. For instance, keep stressing that with you stability will always come before tax cuts.

3. Stop being oppositionalist. It is very tempting to oppose Brown vigorously from the word go. It's also a mistake. People believe he should be given a chance. You can't influence people's view of Brown, just their view of you. When they see you comment on the new PM they'll wonder - are you reasonable, are you fair, are you trustworthy. They'll be judging you. Your self discipline on the tone of opposition isn't bad at all. The party as a whole, though, hasn't been as disciplined. Perhaps you need some simple rules, forbidding people from standard oppositionalist comments about the new PM.

4. Be optimistic. There is a big tension between your optimistic strain and your social breakdown rhetoric. You need to resolve this and you can, quite simply. Crime, for instance, is a tremendous weakness for the government, but talking of our dark and forbidding streets cuts across your optimistic message. So talk instead in optimistic tones of your faith that it can be tackled and the sort of society we'd have if we ended social breakdown.

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Alex Deane: Establish a policy group to rethink Britain’s relationship with Europe

Alexander Deane is a Barrister. A former chief of staff to David Cameron MP in the UK, he currently works for the Liberal Party in Australia.

The Conservative Party has been riven for two generations by a single issue – Europe.

Whilst in the current climate it may seem to have dropped from the forefront of the agenda, it has by no means “gone away” – it affects the Cameron leadership profoundly (indeed, in the shape of the unfulfilled promise to leave the EPP, it can be said to have led to it).

What is the Conservative Party’s policy on Europe?  I’m a committed Conservative with an avid interest in policy, and I don’t know.  I bet you don’t either.

One of the best things the Cameron leadership has done thus far was the creation of the six policy groups.  They grant the party’s thinkers space and time to develop policies and ideas and are seen as a serious attempt to contribute to the national social life.  Policies need to be born of conviction and considered analysis, not snatched at late in the game for electoral advantage – the impression that the latter course was being taken enormously harmed the electoral prospects of both Hague and Howard.

A policy group should be established to consider our country’s future relationship with the EU.

There should be no limits placed on its thinking.  If, contrary to experience thus far, our involvement with this domineering institution can be made to work to our advantage, good.  If not, we should be prepared to leave.

Pragmatically, this policy would allow David breathing space on this issue.  It would also be seen as something for the right wing rank and file, of which I’m one.  And it really may help the party’s stance on the issue that still troubles us so much.

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James Forsyth: Be more sensitive to internal critics but confront the NIMBYs on the need for more housebuilding

James Forsyth is the online editor of The Spectator and The Business. He blogs regularly for the Spectator's Coffee House blog as well as writing for both magazines.  This is the fourth contribution to ConservativeHome's What David Cameron Should Do Next series.

David Cameron needs to move from persuading people to listen to the Conservatives, to getting them to vote for the Conservatives. Decontaminating the brand was necessary but the exercise has gone on too long and helped foster an impression of Cameron as nothing more than a PR man. Cameron now needs to start rolling out substantive reasons to want the party to form the next government: a start would be to make clear how the tax burden will be shifted from work to waste.

The leadership also needs to manage the party far better than it has to date. Quentin Davis might be an arrogant bore with an inflated sense of his own importance, but if some attention was all that was needed to prevent him from defecting to Labour he should have been given it. Equally, the Cameroons need to show that they understand that not everyone who criticises them is a dinosaur or a glory hunter. And for goodness sake, stop sending Cameron on the Today programme to bash his internal critics. It makes him look--in equal parts--thin-skinned, arrogant and weak and guarantees that any ‘Tory splits’ story rumbles on far longer than it otherwise would.

Cameron, however, must stand up to entrenched lobbies in the party when the national, and thus party, interest demands it. So in his conference speech, Cameron should make clear that as a party of aspiration the Conservatives support building more houses and extending home ownership. Gordon Brown is determined to steal the cause of property owning democracy away from the Conservatives; it would be a disaster for them if they aided and abetted him in this scheme. 

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Fiona Melville: Activists and CCHQ need to do more to embody the modernising and optimistic message of Project Cameron

Fiona Melville is a political consultant at Apex Communications.  She worked for the Conservative Party for four years, in the Political Unit for the 2005 General Election, on David Cameron's leadership campaign and as Head of External Relations. She is part of the team behind Platform 10.

If he hasn’t yet, David Cameron and his team should read Alistair Campbell's Diaries. They (and we) should take note especially of the iron focus on victory. Then he should take a deep breath, remember what happened to previous Conservative leaders who abandoned their original modernising instincts, and resolve to continue the programme of change.

CCHQ needs to politicise and beef up its approach – sending a press release out and expecting coverage isn’t enough.  Everyone in that building needs to relentlessly promote the value of Conservative ideas.

David cannot give in to the temptation to personalise the attack on Brown. It’s his record, not his personality, that counts.  The critique needs to be in terms that voters understand, and the solutions need to be personalised.  Now that the policy groups are reporting, it’s time to articulate the vision of how to make Britain a better country.

Remaining in the mainstream of British politics is what counts.  Focusing on what affects people’s daily lives is what gave the party its poll lead for 19 of the last 20 months.

The Party needs to make sure that a consistent Conservative message is sustained and coherent.  The leadership needs to repeat the same thing over and over again, and make sure that the same message is carried by every single activist, councillor and member.

Now the Policy Groups have reported, David has the opportunity to prove that he can make the tough choices for the good of the country. He mustn’t take the easy, grass-roots pleasing route, but the right one for Britain.

Finally – but perhaps most urgently - David needs to remind us of why we picked him. That sense of optimism and success is what will make him and the Party winners at the general election.

A longer version of Fiona's piece can be read on Platform 10.

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Janet Daley: Stop talking about changing the Conservative Party and focus on changing the country

Janet Daley was raised in New York and was an academic before becoming a conservative commentator.  Former Moral Maze panelist she is The Daily Telegraph's principal Monday columnist.  Click here to scroll through all of today's contributions to the What David Cameron Should Do Next series.

The most debilitating mistake that the Tories have made over the past decade is thinking that the question, “What do we have to do to become popular again?” is more important than “What does the country need?” Under David Cameron’s leadership this has become explicit – rather as if he believed the electorate would be flattered by being included in this introspective exercise. As a result, even when the Conservatives are saying things that are potentially attractive, they are greeted with suspicion because they seem to be uttered for the wrong reason – that is, for the sake of appearing attractive rather than out of genuine conviction. This will be a very difficult impression to erase because it has been so firmly and deliberately implanted in the public consciousness. The only possible antidote is to bring the disparate elements of emerging policy into a straightforward philosophical message which can be presented with consistency and sincerity.

Iain Duncan Smith and John Redwood’s policy groups have now produced some excellent ideas in almost excessive detail. But in the absence of an overall theme under which they can be subsumed and made into a coherent whole, they are in danger of being lost in the noise of Labour shrieking “lurch to the Right” (while it picks off the more interesting points to plagiarise). Cameron should choose a couple of overarching principles – say, the need to reform welfare and the public services – which can be the heart of what the new Conservatism stands for, and present them in humane and morally unimpeachable terms: “Responsible people who work hard deserve our support: they need better healthcare, better schools, safer neighbourhoods and fairer treatment from government when they try to secure a better future for themselves and their families.” He then needs to make a clear and comprehensible argument for why his policies will produce that result.

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Matthew Parris: At least one solid, distinctively and obviously Conservative policy should be found (but don't retreat on the huggy, green stuff)

Matthew Parris, a columnist for The Times and winner of last year's ConservativeHome award for best British writer, begins today's series on 'What David Cameron Should Do Next'.

DC should not be spooked by talk of an early general election. However strongly Brown might enter such a contest, elections have lives of their own and this Prime Minister is eminently de-railable.  Whenever the contest comes, DC should aim off: aim to win, of course, but remember that the best result would be to wing Brown then let Britain see him flap around for a year or two with a shrunk or non-existent majority.

Between now and then the watchwords should be Statesmanship and Authority. Recommendations coming in from his range of policy commissions should be treated as just that – recommendations – and cherry-picked with relaxed command, the media being given to understand that he is positively looking forward to rejecting ideas that won’t fly. This should be done with despatch, nobody and nothing left hanging in the air, and care taken in advance to nurse bruisable egos. At least one solid, distinctively and obviously Conservative policy should be found – death duties, whatever –  headlined, showcased, and stuck to regardless.

Guns must be stuck to on Euro-referendum, etc, but calmly, quietly, always understanding that the public are not all that bothered and the treaty’s probably going to happen anyway – or be rejected by someone else.

No more pictures with poor people – we’ve got that message. Abroad only for pictures with powerful people. Suits and ties, sometimes; red carpets; aircraft steps; handshakes, presidential palaces.

A sense of command should be exuded as he settles the final shape of his potential Cabinet.  Some of the faces and voices are not right from the viewpoint of the world outside his party, and that’s the viewpoint that counts. An act of ruthlessness would come in handy.

Much that was unhelpful in the party’s image has now been successfully neutralised. There must be no backsliding or signs of nerve-failure on any of the huggy, caring or green stuff. It’s all good. But next, DC must come across as what Gordon Brown keeps insisting that at core he is: a proper Conservative. By Christmas Britain needs to have seen (what DC, in my view, spectacularly is): an imaginable prime minister. 

NEXT IN THIS 'WHAT DAVID CAMERON SHOULD DO NEXT' SERIES: JANET DALEY AT 10AM