Tom Richmond: The EU itself doesn't interest voters, but the issues it affects do

Tom Richmond, a researcher at the Social Market Foundation think-tank and a columnist for Tory Radio, explains why the EU matters to the public more than they realise. The Lisbon Treaty was signed a month ago today.

If a week is a long time in politics then a month must be an eternity, and as we pass the one-month anniversary of the Lisbon Treaty being ratified by Parliament, the newspaper headlines have long forgotten the backlash from the public and the appalling breach of trust that saw Labour and the Liberal Democrats break their manifesto pledge on a referendum.  With the newspapers losing interest, the Lisbon Treaty having passed through the Commons and polls suggesting that only 3% of voters consider the EU to be an ‘important issue’, the obvious conclusion to reach is that the EU will not be a key battleground in the run-up to the next election – or will it?

According to an Ipsos MORI poll from February of this year, the seven most important issues facing this country are:

1. Crime / law and order;
2. Race relations / immigration;
3. The NHS;
4. The economy;
5. Education and schools;
6. Defence / terrorism;
7. Housing. 

For the sake of comparison, the EU is in 18th place, below petrol prices and the minimum wage.  Needless to say policymakers will be tempted to focus on the top items in the list, but this would ignore the reality of domestic and European politics.  Even though the public might not proclaim any great interest in the EU, Britain’s relationship with the EU remains the biggest debate of our generation as it feeds into virtually every policy debate. 

Tom Richmond: The curse of the favourite

Tom Richmond, a researcher at the Social Market Foundation think-tank and a columnist for Tory Radio, explains why he thinks the plight of Hillary Clinton was predictable from the very beginning of the Presidential race.

Odds of 3/1 to win the Democrat nomination, let alone the Presidency, must make it hard for Hillary Clinton to keep putting on a brave face. The contest is not lost by any means, although if the Clinton team thought that offering Barack Obama the role of Vice President was going to distract him when he leads the nomination race by over 100 delegates, they were very much mistaken.  Hillary possesses a formidable campaigning machine and has more contacts than the Yellow Pages, yet she finds herself struggling to compete with a man who has risen from relative obscurity to a beacon of hope for millions of Americans.  In order to understand the plight of the former First Lady, perhaps we should turn to the British political history books (well, those written since 2005) to see if it helps us understand what makes for a winning formula in leadership contests.   

There is no question that David Davis was the early favourite to become the next Conservative leader three years ago.  He was experienced at ministerial level, appealed to the centre-right elements of the party, had a composed manner, and seemed to have a solid grasp of political life.  His position as frontrunner, however, was short-lived.  All of a sudden, one mediocre speech at the party conference and some lacklustre media performances saw him slip behind his opponent; a position from which he never recovered.  The youthful, energetic and charismatic David Cameron quietly moved into the lead and ended up comfortably winning the leadership vote by a margin of two to one.

Tom Richmond: The drawbacks of financial rewards for marriage

Tom Richmond, a columnist for Tory Radio, questions the value of marriage incentives without being coupled with divorce disincentives.

"My family, and my marriage, are the most important things in my life" said David Cameron, when interviewed about the Social Justice Report produced by Iain Duncan Smith and his policy group.  His personal touch to politics makes David Cameron seem almost human by political standards and despite a few grumbles from some media commentators, the report has been greeted with open arms in many quarters.  The best Gordon Brown has come up with is to tell his Ministers not to talk about marriage – hardly the fighting spirit we expected.

The proposals from Iain Duncan Smith have been carefully worded and given a gentle tone so that David Cameron can weave in his own ideas and stake his claim as the future Prime Minister who cares about the family.  Not only does David Cameron stand to gain from popular initiatives, the tax and benefits system is an excellent route through which he can make more progress in setting out the themes, such as social responsibility, that he continually refers to.  Having a range of policy ideas for different areas of government that all share a common theme will do his credibility the world of good.

Tom Richmond: In pursuit of the perfect policies

Tom Richmond, a columnist for Tory Radio, on the fine balance between too much policy substance too soon, and too little too late.

‘Stand up, Speak up - The Nation's Dispatch Box’ is not the most media-friendly slogan ever to grace our political debates, but the strategy behind it is much more engaging.  By offering the public a chance to shape Conservative Party policy, David Cameron’s desire to distance himself from the top-down legacy of the Blair era couldn’t be plainer.

That is not to say that he is abandoning the work of his policy groups, who are scheduled to report back in the near future after 18 months of discussions.  By the mere act of creating these six groups, he wiped the slate clean of previous Conservative policies and gave himself the chance to take the party in a new direction.  It is worth remembering that ‘Grammargate’ was nothing to do with his Public Service Challenge committee and the deliberations of all the policy groups have been carefully guarded.