Sean Fear: How Well Did the Conservatives Do on May 3rd?

All but two English local authorities have now declared their results.  So far, the Conservatives have made a net gain of 885 seats, Labour a net loss of 492, the Liberal Democrats a net loss 243, and Others and Independents, a net loss of 152.  The Conservatives have made a net gain of 38 councils.  The Conservatives now control over 200 English County, Borough and District councils, which puts them in their strongest position since 1978.  Overall, nearly 44% of council seats in England and Wales are now held by the Conservatives, compared to 26% for Labour.  That is not quite as wide a margin as in 1978, but is still a very large one.

In my previous article, I predicted the Conservatives would gain around 750 seats, and 18 new councils, which some people thought overoptimistic.  In reality, it is clear I was over cautious.  I certainly never expected councils like South Ribble, Windsor & Maidenhead, NW Leicstershire, Harborough, or Blackpool to be won as emphatically as they were.  Nor did I expect to see the Liberal Democrats perform as badly as they did.

The BBC has projected that the Conservatives won the national equivalent of 40% of the vote, compared to 27% for Labour, and 26% for the Liberal Democrats.  If this projection is correct (and Rallings and Thrasher will be producing a much more comprehensive projection in the next few days) then it gives the Conservatives a lead over Labour similar to that achieved in 1978, and similar to that achieved by Labour in 1996.  Ignore the view expressed by Labour that the Conservatives need to be winning 47% of the vote to have a chance of victory at the next election.  That is the sort of vote the Conservatives need to have a chance of winning a landslide, not a working majority.

With one important exception, the Conservatives performed well across all parts of England.  For some hours, the Labour party were attempting to claim the Conservatives were performing poorly in the North of England.  That is not true.  The Conservatives gained more than 110 seats across Yorkshire, the North West and the North East.  The Conservatives now hold more councils than Labour does in both Yorkshire and Lancashire.  The North East remains a Labour stronghold (despite losing Wear Valley and nearly losing Derwentside) but that was the case even in 1983.

The exception to the strong Conservative advance is West Yorkshire, where the Party suffered a small net loss of seats, for a second year in a row,  and where it is not close to outright control of any of the authorities.  There are nine target seats in West Yorkshire, which makes the area crucial in the next general election.  It is disappointing that the Party seems unable to make a breakthrough here, and instead is going backwards. 

The Scottish Parliamentary results produced a net loss of one seat for the Conservatives, due to a fall in their share of the list vote.  The Party did at least perform better than opinion polls had suggested, and maintained its vote share in the constituency section.  It was encouraging to win Roxburgh, and come close to regaining Eastwood, and also to see all three constituency MSP's returned with increased majorities.  Overall, the Conservatives had 16 more councillors elected, although that was only due to changes in the electoral system.  It cannot be denied that Scotland remains bleak for the Conservative Party.  Quite why it is impossible for a centre right party to take at least 25% in Scotland is a mystery to me.

Wales was more encouraging, as the Party gained two constituencies, and pushed up its share of the vote by 2.5% at both constituency and list level.  Indeed, were it not for UKIP intervention, the Party might well have won a further two constituencies.  There is every prospect that the Party will recover the level of representation it had in 1992 at the next general election.

A good set of local results like this does not prove the Conservatives will win the next election, and it is a mistake to treat them as a glorified opinion poll. Local issues (such as waste collection) do matter, and governments tend to lose ground in local elections.  However, parties are dependent on local councillors to keep going in most areas, and if a party's local councillor base is destroyed, it becomes increasingly hard to do well at Parliamentary level.

Sean Fear: How Well Should the Conservatives Do on May 3rd?

On May 3rd, approximately 10,500 council seats will be contested in England, and another 1,100 in Scotland.  In England, 154 District Councils and 25 Unitary Authorities have all-out elections, while the 36 Metropolitan Boroughs, 20 Unitary Authorities, and 77 Districts are electing one third of their  seats.  The 32 Scottish Authorities have all out elections, although they will change from first past the post, to election by way of the Single Transferable Vote, in three member wards.  On the same day, the Scottish Parliamentary and Welsh Assembly elections will also take place.  Due to changes to the law regarding the verification of postal votes, many English authorities, particularly rural ones, will count their votes on the following Friday.

According to figures provided by Richard Willis, the Conservatives have fielded 9,264 council candidates in England, Labour  6,360 , the Lib Dems  6,667, the Greens 1,394, UKIP 805, and the BNP 717. In all likelihood, five or six hundred Conservative councillors have already “won” without a vote being cast, either because they have been returned unopposed, or because they do not face a full slate of opposition candidates in multi-member wards.  Additionally, in a number of rural Conservative seats, the Conservatives face no opposition at all from either Labour or the Lib Dems, but rather from Independents or UKIP candidates.  For this reason, the Conservatives have already “won” at least five authorities, and are within striking distance of taking several others, even before May 3rd.  Labour have also “won” Easington and Bolsover for the same reason.  As yet, I have no information about the number of council candidates fielded in Scotland. 

The Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly, and the majority of the seats coming up in District and Unitary Authorities were last contested in 2003.  All of the seats coming up in the Metropolitan Boroughs were last fought in 2004 (except for by-elections).  In 2003, the Conservatives were estimated by the BBC to have led Labour by 5% in terms of projected national vote share, and the Lib Dems by 8%.  In 2004, the respective figures were 12%, and again 8%, although the Lib Dems overtook Labour.  In Scotland and Wales, inevitably, the Conservatives performed much less well, winning a maximum of 17% in Scotland, and 20% in Wales, and coming third in terms of seats, in both elections.  The Party almost won control of one Scottish authority, South Ayrshire, but Labour retained control by the toss of a coin (although the Conservatives subsequently took control after a by-election).

The only poll of the Welsh campaign, so far, places the Conservatives on 24%, a creditable result, which would enable them to take second place in the Assembly.  The Welsh Conservatives have been quite successful in recovering from the defeat of 1997, regaining three Parliamentary seats in 2005, and coming close in another three.  The Scottish situation is less encouraging.  The United Kingdom Parliamentary boundary changes in Scotland, in 2005, were harmful to the Party, breaking up two of the Conservatives’ best prospects, Edinburgh Pentlands, and Ayr, with the result that the Scottish Conservatives only won one seat in 2005.  However, their fundamental problem is that their support has remained stuck in the range of 14-18% ever since 1997, and that is spread far too thinly across the country to win at constituency level.  Currently, opinion polls suggest the Conservatives will win a maximum of 14% in the Parliamentary election, which would cost them two or three seats, and probably push them into fourth place.  It is worth noting, however, that Scottish opinion polls regularly understate Conservative support.  It really would be very disappointing if the Party could not increase its support slightly on 2003, perhaps to as much as 20%, with a gain of a couple of seats.  It is most unlikely that the Conservatives will retain South Ayrshire council, following the introduction of PR in local elections.  Overall, their seat total will probably remain similar to its current level of 127.

In England the Conservatives can expect big gains.  Last year’s local elections gave a projected lead of 13% over Labour, and 14% over the Lib Dems.  Both opinion polls, and local by-election results, suggest that the lead over Labour has widened since then.  A net gain of anything under 500 seats, and a dozen councils, should be regarded as a poor result for the Conservatives.  In practice, I expect their net gain to be nearer 750 seats and around 18 councils. 

Councils to watch out for, for Conservative gains from Labour, include Gravesham, Plymouth, and Lincoln.  If the night is really bad for Labour, then authorities such as Blackpool, Darlington, and Nottingham might fall as well.  The Conservatives ought to take Torbay, Bournemouth, and Uttlesford from the Liberal Democrats, as well as Shepway, which the Liberal Democrats won in 2003, before subsequently falling apart.  The Conservatives may well be able to deprive the Liberal Democrats of overall control of St. Alban’s as well.  Most Conservative gains are likely to come from No Overall Control.  Councils to look out for include East Riding of Yorkshire, Bath and NE Somerset, Waverley, Rugby, Basingstoke, Barrow in Furness, Brighton and Hove, Braintree, Chester, Ipswich, Maidstone, and perhaps also Bury, as well as winning a majority of the seats on North Tyneside, although a Labour Mayor means that authority will remain under Labour control.

Naturally, there are bound to be losses against the trend.  The Conservatives are vulnerable in Hyndburn, where Labour has done well in by-elections, Thurrock, where Labour recovered ground last year, and North Lincolnshire, where they have a majority of just one seat.  The Liberal Democrats should be able to pull off a surprise win or two at the Conservatives’ expense as well.

One myth which should be nailed is that the Conservatives have “no councillors in the main Northern cities”.  In fact they have over 300 councillors in Northern Metropolitan Boroughs, and will probably have more after May 3rd.  It is true that the Conservatives have underperformed in Northern urban areas for some years, relative to their overall performance, but this is a very good example of lazy journalism.