Matthew Hancock is MP for West Suffolk and has contributed to the Social Market Foundation's new book, The Class of 2010, which is published today and includes contributions from a variety of new MPs.
The pundits and political soothsayers got it wrong. As the coalition was formed, almost all predicted the Coalition Government would be short and weak. Even now, most people think its strength is a surprise given the difficult times. Yet from my new seat in the Commons, I find that these difficult times do not weaken the coalition, but strengthen it.
These political dynamics are underpinned by a clear economic analysis: that it is only by following a credible plan to restore the nation’s finances to health that growth can sustainably be restored. Political opponents of the UK’s plan to deal with the deficit do not themselves have a plan to put in its place. Instead they raise questions about the cause of the fiscal hole we find ourselves in, the timing of action to deal with it, and where the growth will come from. These questions must be answered head-on.
Deficit Denial
Firstly, some deny the scale and cause of the problem. Too often, this includes a wilful attempt to confuse the deficit with the debt. The annual deficit, by which the debt rises each year, is the gap between what the nation spends and what it takes in taxes. At 11% of national income, the UK’s deficit was the highest in the G20 going into the crisis, rose fastest, and became the highest in our peacetime history.
Clearly before we can even touch the debt, the first act must be to tackle its growth: the deficit. After all, even while dealing with the deficit, the Government’s current plan will leave the debt rising every year of the current Parliament. Acting more slowly would leave the debt rising in the next Parliament too.
For those who accept the need to act, some then argue for delay. Taking longer to deal with the deficit would leave us with higher debt, so permanently higher interest costs, and greater cuts in other government spending. The indirect costs of delay are higher still, in terms of the loss of confidence and private sector growth.
Evidence is put forward about the likely number of job losses from dealing with the deficit. Yet even those who have estimated the likely cost in terms of jobs argue that inaction would be worse. A further argument is sometimes made that by reducing public sector employment, costs actually rise due to unemployment benefits and lost tax revenues. For anyone losing their job it is very difficult. But for this argument to be valid, the cost to the state of not employing someone must be higher than the cost of employing someone. Were this “redundancy fallacy” true, it would be a terrible indictment of the system. Thankfully it is not.
Sometimes they say that only deficit-funded growth will get the deficit down. So let’s go through the logical steps. They say increase the deficit to help growth, then the growth will help deal with the deficit. That collapses to saying we should increase the deficit to deal with the deficit. The argument so obviously defies logic it’s a surprise anyone serious uses it.