John Baron MP: When it comes to the economy, the Government lacks the balls – and so does Balls

John Baron is the Member of Parliament for Basildon and Billericay. Before entering politics, John worked in the City advising mostly charities on their investments. He presently writes a column for the FT’s Investors’ Chronicle magazine. 

With the dust now settling on the Budget, it is clear the Chancellor has chosen to stick with his economic plan. Whilst a number of individual measures were welcome, the Coalition has simply tinkered by moving a few £billion around in an economy of £1.5trillion. This will have the same effect as moving deckchairs around on the Titanic – or the band changing the music – and will prove woefully inadequate. What is needed is a substantial cut in spending, allied to substantial tax breaks to get the economy moving.

It is perhaps worth reflecting on yet another set of missed targets. The original plan was that we would have eliminated the annual deficit by 2015, and even begun to reduce the national debt. But we will still be adding to the debt pile in 2017/18. The Government boasts of reducing the deficit by a third – this still means we are adding to the debt, but at one-third less the rate previously.

A common refrain used against Labour when we first came to office was that they had doubled the national debt in their 13 years of power. According to figures from the Taxpayers’ Alliance, the present trajectory suggests that by 2017/18 the Coalition Government will have more than doubled again the official national debt it inherited in 2010. And this assumes the OBR’s optimistic growth forecasts remain intact – something that has yet to be achieved.

John Baron MP: Let's place legislation on the Statute Book in this Parliament for a referendum in the next

John Baron is the Member of Parliament for Basildon and Billericay, and a former Shadow Health Minister.

If six months ago I had told you the Prime Minister was shortly going to offer the country an in/out referendum on our EU membership, you would not have believed me.

We have travelled a long way since then. Many of us have contributed to the journey, and I thank my 100 back bench colleagues who signed our letter in June.

On the Conservative benches, the speech has been met with universal acclaim, for it is in the country’s interest. It will also be welcomed by the British electorate, as I hope opinion polls will confirm. However, there is one further step the Prime Minister should take which would cement this achievement.  

The letter we sent the Prime Minister in June called upon the Government to place legislation on the Statute Book in this Parliament for a referendum in the next. There are good reasons for passing enabling legislation this side of the General Election. Whilst not doubting the Prime Minister’s sincerity, the British public tend to be cynical when they hear promises being made by politicians about Europe.  Too many have been broken about EU referenda. They remember Tony Blair’s promise about the EU Constitution and the Liberal Democrats’ 2010 manifesto. None of which have come to anything.

John Baron MP: We don't want another manifesto promise of a referendum we want Cameron to legislate for a referendum

John Baron MP has recently visited a number of  European capitals with the Foreign Affairs Committee. He suggests David Cameron has a golden opportunity when he makes his EU speech shortly, but only if certain realities are grasped. And only if the right referendum approach is adopted.

The Foreign Affairs Select Committee is currently compiling a report on UK-EU relations. Over the past few months, we have visited Paris, Brussels, Berlin and Bern, and have met fellow Parliamentarians, bankers, diplomats, analysts and opinion-formers from across the political spectrum. For me, the most striking aspect of our visits is the unanimity of opinion on two points in particular.

The first is that deeper political union is the only long-term solution to the ongoing Eurozone crisis. Political leaders have finally realised that monetary union cannot work without fiscal union. More harmonisation is required if the euro is to be saved. If there was any doubt about the political priority attached to this mission, one only has to listen to German bankers and diplomats talking about the need to turn on the printing presses should the ECB actually have to buy periphery sovereign debt.

The second is that the British Government’s stated aim of repatriating powers will be fiercely resisted. Opinion regarding access to an à la carte EU is hardening. The view is that more, not less, Europe is required. As we speak, the Swiss are fighting a rearguard action to preserve the integrity of their bilateral agreements.

Accordingly, the more relevant question is perhaps whether the system is flexible enough to allow the UK to stay where it is - outside the euro, but inside the EU - without its interests being infringed. This, after all, would be a very exclusive club.

John Baron MP: The Government risks missing an opportunity to implement an earlier cancer diagnosis regime

John Baron is the Member of Parliament for Basildon and Billericay, and a former Shadow Health Minister. He is the Chairman of the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Cancer.

The Coalition is laudably committed to preventing the deaths of an extra 5,000 cancer patients by 2015. Though this would only bring us up to the European average, it is an ambitious and achievable aim. However, a decision taken in the next few weeks may throw this into doubt, and risks cancer treatment taking a step backwards.

In 2009, the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Cancer (APPGC) produced a report which showed that the NHS stood as much chance as any health service in Europe at getting cancer patients who had survived for one year from diagnosis to the five-year point. Where the NHS fell down, however, was getting patients to the one-year point: this suggests the NHS treats patients as well as any other health service once cancer is detected, but is poor at detecting it in the first place.

The best way of improving one-year survival figures is to encourage earlier diagnosis. This can rightly be called the "magic key" for cancer treatment, since the chances of successful treatment are greatly magnified by catching the disease in its early stages. As a consequence, the APPGC has been campaigning hard to get the NHS to introduce one- and five-year cancer survival indicators at both a national and local level.

John Baron MP: Now is the time to talk to the Taliban - some of them, anyway

John Baron is the Member of Parliament for Basildon and Billericay and a Member of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee.

It has been abundantly clear for some years now that NATO forces, despite winning individual skirmishes, are nevertheless losing the ‘long game’ in Afghanistan. Opinion-formers on all sides of the debate – not least the Secretary of State for Defence – are recasting the preconditions before our 2014 withdrawal of combat forces.

Writing in The Times yesterday, Lord Ashdown suggested Britain should bring troops home from Afghanistan ‘as soon as decently possible’, noting that staying any longer would only result in further deaths ‘for no purpose’. Lord Ashdown, a former soldier himself, lends his voice to the ever-increasing number of us who have been advocating a change in policy for far too long.

John Baron MP: The Prime Minister is moving in our direction over an EU referendum

A fortnight since his piece on ConHome musing on why the Prime Minister had not replied to his June EU referendum letter, John Baron MP writes after finally receiving a response. He is the MP for Billericay

Two weeks ago I reflected on why people put off responding to letters. Could it be, I asked, because they do not know the answer; have not formed a view; or are changing their position? It now looks as though the last of these applies to the Prime Minister.

This week I finally received the Prime Minister’s reply to my letter of 27th June, co-signed by 100 Conservative MPs. In the letter, we called upon the Prime Minister to place on the Statute Book a commitment to hold a referendum within the next Parliament on the nature of our relationship with the EU.

John Baron MP: The Defence Secretary says one thing. The Development Secretary says another. The Government must clear up its confusion over Afghanistan.

John Baron MP is the MP for Basildon and Billericay and a Member of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee

The contradictory statements on Afghanistan by Justine Greening in the House of Commons on Thursday and those by Philip Hammond whilst visiting our troops suggests Government policy remains confused. Talk of nation-building and women’s rights does not sit well with suggestions that our strategic interest should be the key determinant as to when our soldiers return. But confusion apart, the key stumbling-block remains the American refusal to conduct non-conditional talks with the Taliban.

For those of us who opposed our involvement in Afghanistan, it was obvious from early on that the Taliban would not be beaten given available resources, and that we were fighting the wrong enemy in the wrong country.

John Baron MP: Why is the Prime Minister taking so long to answer our European referendum letter?

John Baron MP is the Member of Parliament for Basildon and Billericay and a Member of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee.

In June, John Baron delivered a letter to No 10 co-signed by 100 Conservative MPs calling for an EU referendum. Two and a half months later, despite numerous prompts, there has still been no reply.

Why does anyone take a long time to respond to an important letter? Can it be that the answer is not known, that the recipient has not formed a view, or even that one’s opinion is changing?

I delivered the letter, co-signed by 100 Conservative MPs, on 27^th June. It called upon the Prime Minister to place on the Statute Book a commitment to hold a referendum within the next Parliament on the nature of our relationship with the EU. David Cameron subsequently invited me to a meeting on 9^th July to discuss the matter, during which we agreed to disagree, and he promised to reply. However, two and a half months later, and after multiple attempts to chase, we are still awaiting a reply.

The advantages of committing to a referendum now are numerous. It would address the very real lack of public trust when people hear politicians making promises – they remember Labour’s broken promises over the EU Constitution/Lisbon Treaty. Such a referendum would address this credibility gap. Promises or commitments made nearer election time, or in manifestos, risk being seen as election ploys.

I personally would like an in/out referendum as soon as possible. However, our letter was pragmatic in asking the Prime Minister to commit now for a referendum in the next Parliament. This would allow time for an informed debate as to the question to be asked, and for the Eurozone crisis to play out. It would also give time for any renegotiations to take place – after all, we have been promised a repatriation of powers. The proposal does not ‘corner’ the Prime Minister, but it would commit him to sticking to a promise important to many of us across the country.

John Baron MP: A military strike against Iran would be disastrous

John Baron is the Member of Parliament for Basildon and Billericay. A former soldier and member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, he resigned from the shadow frontbench to vote against the Iraq War, opposed our intervention in Afghanistan, and was the only Tory MP to vote against the Libyan intervention.

We can all agree that the Baghdad talks on Iran’s nuclear programme are very important. The signs of tension are evident: naval forces continue to muster in the Persian Gulf; Israel is still open to a military strike; while possible military options are being discussed in the UK’s National Security Council. Some or all of this is about setting the mood music prior to the talks. But the outcome of these negotiations will largely define how this crisis unfolds, and to a large extent whether military strikes are conducted. There can be little doubt that a further diplomatic push is warranted.

We should remember that the International Atomic Energy Agency’s November report contained no ‘smoking gun’. When a number of Parliamentary colleagues and I visited the IAEA’s headquarters in Vienna last month, we were told that there was no evidence that Iran had contravened the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. They have not contravened Article II, which bans manufacture, whilst Article X makes allowances for research.

There is no hard evidence of construction of nuclear weapons, nor of a decision to do so – a fact confirmed recently by US intelligence sources. Neither is there evidence of diversion of nuclear materials. Yes, there is circumstantial evidence, but we know where this led us when it came to Iraq: we must base our foreign policy decisions on solid ground.

John Baron MP: A prize awaits the Prime Minister if he seizes the moment over the Eurozone Crisis

John Baron is the Member of Parliament for Basildon and Billericay. Before entering Parliament, John managed portfolios for charities, pension funds and private clients, and was a director of two City fund management groups. He now writes a regular column for the FT’s Investors’ Chronicle.

The Eurozone crisis continues to unfold.  The economic news goes from bad to worse. Furthermore, with the ink hardly dry on the fiscal compact treaty, many countries are already in breach of the EU’s debt limits. Politicians are now queuing up to argue against austerity packages, if not the Euro itself. No wonder the Prime Minister has changed his tone: but his comment that we are not yet half-way through the crisis falsely assumes a solution has been found. A prize awaits him the sooner he realises this is not the case.

Short term, the federalists may be relieved. Christine Lagarde has been successful in drumming up support for increased loans to the IMF. Meanwhile, the ECB’s initiative for three-year loans to beleaguered banks has bought time. But in the absence of a growth agenda, the market knows such measures are nothing more than sticking plasters.

Unlike previous recessions, this one is the result of excessive debt. The solution to such a crisis is not more debt. And no amount of moving this high debt around the system, between banks and governments, will conceal or erode its scale. At some point there has to be a reckoning.

John Baron MP: The politicians risk failing our soldiers in Afghanistan

John Baron MP is a member of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee. He opposed our involvement in Afghanistan, has been critical of policy ever since, and was the only Conservative to vote against Government policy in the first ever vote on Afghanistan in 2010.

No-one can question the professionalism and sacrifice of our troops in Afghanistan. But there comes a defining moment in such campaigns when a political settlement must be negotiated. Up to this point, the politicians have failed. So far, they have confused both the mission and the enemy. Following the Taliban’s withdrawal from talks due to American preconditions, they now risk a disorderly handover. Shades of Vietnam are coming into focus. If allowed to happen, the politicians will have utterly failed our soldiers.

At the end of what has been a terrible few weeks in Afghanistan, we are no closer to the solution to this decade-old war. The shocking loss of six of our soldiers in one incident confirms once again the recently leaked NATO report that the Taliban insurgency remains intact – despite NATO’s public assertions to the contrary. Meanwhile, the politicians talk of progress. They even bring forward their deadline for ceasing military combat operations. But the reality on the ground is very different.

No-one can criticise our troops. As an ex-soldier, I know they have done everything we have asked of them. Instead, criticism should be levied against the US and UK governments for failing to recognise two fundamentally important distinctions.

The first is that the West has confused the mission. The original objective was to deny Afghanistan to al-Qaeda. Intelligence reports confirm this was achieved many years ago. Since then, the mission has morphed into one of nation-building, with all the accompanying goals of human rights and liberal democracy. This loss of focus has produced mission creep.

John Baron MP: Throwing good money after bad to save the Eurozone is economic madness

John Baron is Conservative MP for Basildon and Billericay. He managed portfolios for charities, pension funds and private clients as a Director of Hendersons and then Rothschild Asset Management. He remains a member of the Securities Institute. He now writes a regular column for the FT’s Investors’ Chronicle magazine.

Once again there are siren voices suggesting further tens of billions of pounds should be given to the IMF to help the Eurozone through its crisis. This is economic illiteracy. Trying to cure a crisis caused by excessive debt by piling on yet more debt is a fool’s errand. Yet Parliament may be asked to do just that despite such a policy contradicting the Government’s own austerity policy at home. Instead, the Eurozone should be aggressively tackling the root cause of its crisis – which is a lack of competitiveness. They have the tools at their disposal, but lack the political will.

To us Eurosceptics, the Euro project was always flawed. Binding divergent economies together without fiscal union was, and remains, a massive mistake. But this economic lesson of history was ignored in the quest for political union. The Eurozone leaders have finally realised their mistake. However, fault lines are already appearing in the new fiscal compact. And the market remembers how readily the Eurozone countries ignored the last fiscal strictures when the Euro was born.

These Eurocrats are failing to solve the crisis because they refuse to address the fundamental cause of the problem. Governments are failing to pay their way in the world because of a lack of competitiveness. These Eurozone economies continue to fall behind their competitors. Germany is the exception, but then its exporters have benefitted from an artificially low currency courtesy of the weaker Eurozone members.

The only true long term remedy for these economies is to become more competitive, to generate growth and therefore close the gap between what they spend and what they earn. But there is little sign of this happening. I see very little of the sweeping supply-side reforms that are needed to accomplish this. The political will simply doesn’t exist. Until this happens, all other measures are sticking plasters – and the market knows it. In the short term, relief may be provided if the ECB relents and starts printing money. This decision remains in the balance. But it is not a long term solution. There is no evidence quantitative easing generates sustainable economic growth.

John Baron MP: We must talk to the Taliban without preconditions

John Baron MP is a Member of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, has consistently opposed the West’s policy in Afghanistan, and was the only Conservative to vote against the Government’s continued policy in the first vote on the issue in 2010.

The leaked NATO report should be making people sit up and think. It is the result of 27,000 interviews from 4,000 captured Taliban, Al Qaeda and other foreign fighters. The report claims that the Taliban insurgency remains intact – despite NATO’s assertions to the contrary; that the Taliban are being directly assisted by Pakistani security services – despite their claims to the contrary; and that the Taliban enjoys wide support among the Afghan people – again despite NATO claims to the contrary.

These findings confirm that the West now needs to respond positively to Taliban overtures about talks, before it is too late. The British Government has its work cut out to persuade the US to better recognise this fact.

Our strategy in Afghanistan has been dogged by the failure to recognise two fundamentally important distinctions.

John Baron MP: We need clarity from the Prime Minister on Europe

John Baron is MP for Basildon and Billericay and in this article he suggests a route-map would be helpful in the European storm.

It is nearly a month since the Prime Minister vetoed the EU’s misguided proposals to defuse the Eurozone crisis. He returned from Brussels to a warm reception in Parliament and a significant boost in the pre-Christmas polls. However, now that the fanfares have died down, and as the political year re-starts after the festive break, the country needs some clarity on where Britain stands.

Across the Channel, the Eurozone is still in the mire. Spanish unemployment is hitting a 15-year high, and there is renewed talk of an Italian bailout. Germany meanwhile enjoys record employment figures and a buoyant housing market. Such are the strains and contradictions within the Euro – which may yet sink it.

The Prime Minister was right to stand up for British interests but, as I have said before, the veto should only be the beginning of a much wider process of recasting our entire relationship with the EU. As a country we may have managed to steer clear of the Euro, but the Prime Minister’s success in the polls underlines the fact that many are fed up with the EU’s constant meddling in our affairs, that many baulk at the cost of EU membership (some £40 billion over the next seven years) and that our businesses are frustrated by the endless reams of EU regulations and associated red tape.

John Baron MP: The Prime Minister must seize the moment and recast our relationship with the EU forever

With the Prime Minister having used our veto, John Baron MP argues that this is now a once in a lifetime opportunity to fundamentally renegotiate our relationship with the EU on the basis of trade and not politics. John is the Member of Parliament for Basildon and Billericay.

There have been some seminal moments in the history of the European Union, and the Prime Minister’s wielding of the veto last night may turn out to be one of them. We are on the cusp of a once in a lifetime opportunity to recast our relationship with the EU for the better. The Prime Minister must now seize this moment.

This fundamental renegotiation of our relationship needs to be based on free trade, competitiveness and growth, and not on political union and dead-weight regulation. This is not some grand utopian vision – it exists today. Switzerland in particular has an excellent relationship with the EU, enjoys easy access to its markets without burdensome regulation, and prospers as a result.

Such a relationship would reflect the fact that the British electorate in 1975 voted for a free-trade area and not a political union. It would recognise the fact that people are fed up with mindless interference from the EU; that our businesses, especially SMEs, are fed up with the endless tide of EU regulations which hamper their competiveness; and that taxpayers are fed up with the costs of EU membership – some £40 billion over the next seven years. It would also reflect the fact that the Conservative Party is increasingly fed up of promises to ‘reign in the EU’, only for yet more sovereignty to be parcelled off to Brussels.