James Arbuthnot MP: Britain must come to a sensible decision on the UN Palestinian statehood vote to ensure peace

James Arbuthnot MP is Chairman of Conservative Friends of Israel and of the Defence Select Committee.

Next week, the United Nations Security Council will vote on a resolution to grant ‘Palestine’ full membership. It is now time for the international community to decide whether to support the Palestinians unilateral diplomatic strategy. The UK holds an important vote in the Security Council and how we use it will certainly have ramifications on the future of the peace process and what future role we intend to play in creating peace in the region.

To date, the Palestinian strategy has been to secure enough support in the Security Council to win an outright majority. Failing this, they are aiming to trigger a US veto and thereby win a ‘moral majority’ in the Security Council before moving the vote to the General Assembly where an outright win on ‘non-member’ statehood would be guaranteed.

The Palestinians currently have eight Security Council votes in the bag - Russia, China, India, South Africa, Brazil, Lebanon, Gabon and Nigeria –just shy of the nine votes needed for a win. The United States has announced its intention to vote against the resolution, labelling it a distraction from the goal of restarting negotiations between the parties. Crucially, Europe has become the swing vote in this debate.

James Arbuthnot MP: Israel did the right thing in trading 1,000 prisoners for one captured Israeli soldier

James Arbuthnot MP is Chairman of Conservative Friends of Israel.

In June 2006, Israeli Corporal, Gilad Shalit was kidnapped from inside Israel in a cross border attack. After spending 1,940 days in Hamas captivity, today he was finally released into Israeli custody, in a prisoner exchange deal that will see the release of over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners – convicted terrorists and murders – from Israeli Jails.
 
The freed Palestinian prisoners make their way back to Gaza, the West Bank and in the case of Israeli Arab prisoners, East Jerusalem. Shalit meanwhile, is now back in the arms of his family has been deemed in good and stable health, but Israel’s literal ‘prisoners dilemma’ will always plague the country. What price was Israel willing to pay for the safe return of Sergeant Shalit?

Most western states would balk at the cost incurred. It is said that the people on the list for the exchange deal have been directly responsible for the deaths of 599 Israelis. One of the exchanged prisoners, Amna Muna was jailed for life in 2003 for luring 16-year-old Israeli Ofir Rahum from Ashkelon to Ramallah, where he was shot dead by Fatah terrorists. Others were responsible for some of the most vicious terrorist attacks in Israel’s history.

But this exchange deal is characteristic of a country that places extremely high value on the lives of its citizens. National service means that almost every Israeli family has someone in the army. As a result, the State makes a promise to those everyday people who donate their youth, and risk their lives in order to defend it.

James Arbuthnot MP: Egypt, Israel and the Middle East Merry-Go-Round

James Arbuthnot MP is Chairman of Conservative Friends of Israel and of the Defence Select Committee.

The world has been watching the massive protests throughout North Africa and the Middle East. Following the ousting of Tunisia’s President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, protests spread into Egypt with dramatic consequences, leading to President Mubarak’s assertion that he would not stand again. In Jordan, protests prompted Jordanian King Abdullah to sack his government whilst in Yemen, President Ali Abdullah Saleh, a key US ally in the battle against Al-Qaeda, called on the opposition to help form a national unity government. With the imminent departure of Mubarak a political vacuum is opening up. Who will fill this vacuum and entrench themselves in a position of power? What effect will this have on peace in the region? And what are the wider security threats emanating from this for Israel and the West?

Although the current unrest did not stem from fundamentalist Islamic elements, the past has taught us that in the absence of the foundations of modern democracy, electorally successful regimes lacking in the central tenants of democracy, often emerge from the pandemonium. In Egypt, there are strong indicators that support for the Islamist movement is growing. The Muslim Brotherhood is a popular force and the only truly organised opposition group. A Pew Poll in December 2010 revealed that when asked if they identified with ‘modernisers’ or ‘Islamists’ only 27% of Egyptians surveyed  said modernisers, whilst 59% said Islamists. In light of these results, it is apparent that there is sizeable grassroots support for radical Islamism that could be exploited and built upon within Egypt.

Alongside the possibility of an emerging Islamist state, the emergence of a political vacuum in the country has dealt a blow to prospects for Middle East Peace. Egypt is a vital bulwark for peace in the region and has emerged as one of Israel’s closest regional allies, having honoured the 1979 peace treaty between the two countries for over thirty years. For Israel, the end of the conflict with the Arab world depends on the durability of the peace with Egypt; for all its limitations it is the only successful model of Israel’s central ‘land for peace’ philosophy. The US and the UK must play a central role in ensuring that the peace agreement remains the foundation stone of Egyptian –Israeli bilateral relations, irrespective of who fills the vacuum.