Brian Monteith: Scottish Conservatives facing a humiliation

Brian Monteith is a former Tory student chairman and Conservative MSP.  He is now editor of ThinkScotland.org

On Monday Lord Ashcroft’s polling of Scottish voters’ views and intentions caused a predictable stir.  It even led to the rare occurrence of a Scottish political story making the pages of  MailOnline!

The focus was, understandably, the opinions on the independence referendum (a resounding 65 to 26 No), that the SNP’s fixation with independence was not shared by the majority of the electorate and that there remains a good deal of confusion about what the Scottish Parliament is responsible for and what it has actually achieved (the most popular being making various benefits or services ‘free’).

I reviewed that aspect of the polling here.

There was, however, some other rather revealing information that readers of ConservativeHome will be especially interested and I’m afraid it was not good news. Here are the headline findings:

• In the poll of voting intentions for the Scottish Parliament that will not be held until May 2016 (sample of 1000 between 7 and 17 June) the Scottish Conservatives were third at 15 percent for the constituency vote;
• In the same poll but for the second (regional list) vote the Scottish Conservatives were pushed into fifth at 10 per cent, behind the Lib Dems on 13 percent and UKIP on 11 per cent;
• In a different poll with a mega sample of 10,007 the Scottish Conservative leader, Ruth Davidson, had the worst popularity rating with a net −20, behind the Lib Dem Willie Rennie on −8, Alex Salmond on −4 and Johann Lamont on +3.
• In the same poll Ruth Davidson was not known or provoked no opinion by 27 per cent of her own supporters (better than the Labour or the Lib Dem leaders) but had the largest unpopular percentage, at 18 per cent, and the poorest net popularity at +37 with her own supporters.

Brian Monteith: David Cameron is pushing at an open door with his call to tackle "Big Government" - but we need to hear more about how he will put a stop to the bully state

Brian Monteith is a former Conservative MSP whose new book, The Bully State: The End of Tolerance was recently published by The Free Society and is available to buy via Amazon.

Recently I had a book published, my second in fact. Now there’s nothing especially remarkable about this except for the different reaction the two books have elicited from readers. Both books are political. The first looks at how our overweening government takes too much of our hard-earned money while the second considers how politicians have given up on the nanny state and have created a more malevolent and malicious bully state instead.

The first book by definition, being limited to Scottish political economy and declaring the moral case for lower taxes there, spoke to a relatively small market.  It would be fair to say that its reach beyond natural conservatives and liberals of the old Joe Grimond school was fairly limited. While its arguments are still relevant to today’s economic and constitutional questions most people that liked it were already in the same camp as me.

Not so with my latest offering The Bully State: The End of Tolerance. It is provoking an entirely different reaction. I am receiving some very nice compliments from people who are not, and in many cases have never been, Conservative supporters. It is the mothers and spouses of friends, the politically uninterested, the work acquaintances that don’t care to talk politics who are sending texts saying they are my number one fan (how scary and embarrassing at the same time), or how can they order a dozen copies for Christmas presents (go to Amazon!) or that I would make a better First Minister than the present incumbent (flattering, but Scotland’s more likely to qualify for a World Cup!).

I don’t reveal any of this to hype myself up. I now work in Trinidad and have no political ambitions other than to continue arguing for the open society I believe in. I raise the point that non-conservatives are agreeing with what I’ve written simply to illustrate what I think is a gaping void in the Conservative strategy for the next general election, the silence on what will be done about the overbearing politically correct bully state.

Brian Monteith: Poor Scottish result augurs change

Former Conservative MSP Brian Monteith is unimpressed with the Tories' performance in last Thursday's elections to Holyrood.

Now that the understandable distraction of the bourach that was the Holyrood election meltdown has subsided and the actual results can be assessed with some cold detachment rather than the emotion of the early morning battlefield, Scottish Conservatives have to accept it was in general terms a disastrous night, lightened only by one or two personal triumphs.

Here is a summary of what happened.

The Scottish people, tired and jaundiced with Blair’s Labour nationally and McConnell’s Lib Lab coalition in Scotland – voted for change. The result was that the coalition’s 67 seats (50 Labour and 17 Liberal Democrats) was reduced to 62 (46 Labour and 16 Liberal Democrats).  This was not as bleak a setback as was being anticipated by Labour a fortnight ago, for its net loss was only four seats when much worse had been feared. Nor was the SNP advance as dramatic as its cheerleaders had hoped.  The ten gains in individual constituencies was relatively muted, the difference being that the nationalists hoovered up so many of the second votes that they took ten more from the twelve minor party seats that departed the scene (six Trotskyists, five of the seven Greens and the sole Pensioner’s Party MSP).  The demise of the fringe parties not only resulted in the SNP being the largest with 47 seats; it also ensured that coalition building is more difficult with fewer options available for negotiating.

Brian Monteith MSP: What we need is New Unionism across the UK

Member of the Scottish Parliament Brian Monteith - until recently a Tory - sets out his manifesto for 'New Unionism across the UK':

• The Scottish Conservatives must become truly independent of the British Party so that they have credibility in their own land
• The Scottish Parliament must have more financial powers so that it can be held to account by its electorate
• There should be a referendum to reconfirm the Union held separately by all four constituent nations so we can lance the boil of nationalism; and
• Reform of the House of Lords reform should be completed with its Scottish members sitting as a second chamber for the Scottish Parliament so that there is a check on its mob democracy and its legislation is better scrutinised.

I have not easily or lightly come to these conclusions. I write this as the person who, in 1997 when everyone else in Scotland ran to the hills for cover, stepped forward, set up and ran the No campaign. Having lost that battle (which was conducted in an atmosphere of emotional hysteria fed by a media and three other parties rejoicing in Tory defeat) I believed I should stand for Holyrood to offer constructive criticism that might rebuild the Tory position.  I have, I believe, been the Parliament’s most outspoken unionist critic and yet I am now convinced only a separate Scottish party, taking the whip at Westminster, also sitting in an Edinburgh Parliament with greater powers can work for the Scottish Tories.

From day one I have said that Labour’s devolution settlement would not work because, as Enoch Powell with typical prescience predicted, it is designed to retain the real power at the Treasury.  This straightjacket means it is never able to satisfy the demands placed upon it in Scotland while the block grant and Barnett formula will always be a source of resentment for the bounty it delivers at cost, real real or imaginary, to the English taxpayer.  With the resurgence of Scottish nationalism, the questions about Scottish MPs deciding English laws and the debate about an MP from Scotland becoming Prime Minister, the predictions of myself and others are bearing fruit.

Abolishing the Parliament has never been a serious option as us Scots would never admit our mistake and for Scottish Tories to advocate it would be seen as to be taking the side of English dominance at Westminster (again, real or imaginary).  The choice lies in finding a solution for Scottish devolution that works or moving to independence and the break up of the United Kingdom.