Lib Dems hold Eastleigh; UKIP come second; Tories come third

By Tim Montgomerie
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Here are the results of the Eastleigh by-election:

• Mike Thornton (Lib Dem) 13,342 (32.1%, -14.5%);
• Diane James (UKIP) 11,571 (27.8%, +24.2%);
• Maria Hutchings (Con) 10,559 (25.4%, -14.0%);
• John O'Farrell (Lab) 4,088 (9.8%, +0.2%)

Grant Shapps, Tory Chairman, gave his reaction on Andrew Neil's by-election programme last night:

If the video fails to load please click here.

I'll post a reaction on ToryDiary before 8.30am.

It's final countdown time in the battle for Eastleigh. Can you help elect Maria?

By Tim Montgomerie
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In the final few days of the battle for Eastleigh there is a new spring in the step of the Tory campaign. The bookies still favour the Liberal Democrats for many good reasons but Maria Hutchings is far from defeated. 500 Tory activists descended on the Hampshire constituency on Saturday despite arctic weather conditions and another 180 volunteers helped out yesterday. One new poll suggested that the Tories might be slightly ahead in the by-election. That poll was taken before the mushrooming coverage of the Rennard allegations and suggestions that Nick Clegg and senior Lib Dems tried to sweep the allegations under the carpet.

The Tory campaign is convinced that it has now found the right local message to hurt the Liberal Democrats and that issue is a housing development that has caused consternation among local people.

The latest election literature also has a broader feel. The anti-UKIP messages on immigration, Europe and welfare are still evident but so, too, is a big emphasis on David Cameron's "clear plan to fix Britain's economy". That message was promoted on poster vans of the kind pictured above and also in Maria's latest newspaper (download a PDF).

Help is needed in these crucial last few days either in person or via phone canvassing. If can spare any time at all to help ensure Maria Hutchings replaces Chris Huhne as Eastleigh's MP please click here or here. GO ON, BE PART OF IT!

UKIP is doing well in Eastleigh but its manifesto for the campaign reveals a silly and populist dishonesty

By Tim Montgomerie
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The Times (£) has published the third opinion poll of the Eastleigh by-election campaign and it will do nothing to correct the overwhelming media narrative that the Liberal Democrats are on course to keep the seat vacated by Chris Huhne. AIt puts the Lib Dems ahead by 5%. As with the other two polls (from Lord Ashcroft and then Survation) the Lib Dem share of the vote is down sharply but so, too, is the Tory vote. The party that is growing is UKIP;

Graphic from The Times

I haven't seen the data but I imagine the UKIP candidate is taking votes from across the political spectrum but I also imagine UKIP is hurting the Tories most - and in two ways. One by winning over otherwise Tory voters and two, by pulling the party away from reaching beyond its core vote. As I noted on Thursday morning it is obvious that the Tory campaign has been looking over its shoulder at UKIP, more than worrying about other kinds of voters. Tory leaflets are heavily emphasising harder-line Tory policies on immigration, welfare and Europe rather than, say, pensions, the NHS and childcare. Maria Hutchings is, herself, an almost ideal anti-UKIP candidate. Her views on gay marriage and leaving the EU mean that she's hardly a Cameroon. Matthew Parris has described her as a "the candidate of many ConservativeHome enthusiasts’ dreams"!

Continue reading "UKIP is doing well in Eastleigh but its manifesto for the campaign reveals a silly and populist dishonesty" »

Can you spare a few hours for the battle of Eastleigh?

By Tim Montgomerie
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I spent a day in Eastleigh yesterday, canvassing and delivering leaflets. Contrary to what you may have read on Twitter and in some newspapers the Tory campaign is very well supported. We are getting our leaflets out, the leaflets carry targeted messages for different parts of the constituency and the operation has completed a full canvass. More help is needed, however, in the final week of the campaign and if you can spare some time - either in person or via phone please contact the campaign.

I was struck by the extent to which the Tory campaign is focused on Maria Hutchings. The billboard posters all feature her while the Lib Dem, UKIP and Labour posters are much more party-branded. The Tory literature focuses very heavily on Maria and is also quite old-Tory in its themes. There was a lot of emphasis on opposing development, the In/Out vote on Europe, controlling immigration and cutting welfare costs. I wondered if the rationale is that we can win if we hold our vote and don't lose too much support to UKIP. Similarly the Lib Dems believe they can win if they can keep a lid on Labour.

Continue reading "Can you spare a few hours for the battle of Eastleigh?" »

Lib-Con relations are fracturing – in Eastleigh and elsewhere

By Peter Hoskin
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What larks in Eastleigh! As various Tory MPs have tweeted in identikit fashion, the Lib Dem candidate has today ‘fessed up to voting for 5,000 new homes to be built on previously undeveloped green space – and this despite campaign literature which warns that “countryside spaces between our towns and villages across the borough of Eastleigh are under new threat thanks to Hampshire Conservatives”. Grant Shapps puts it thus:

“The Lib Dems Eastleigh campaign is in turmoil. Their central promise to the people of Eastleigh is to protect the local area’s green spaces. But now their candidate has admitted that they will concrete over the countryside with their plans for 5,000 new houses on green field sites.

The Liberal Democrats cannot mislead the voters forever – they’ve been found out. Nick Clegg now needs to apologise for the Lib Dems’ totally inaccurate claims.”

And there’s another Lib Dem-related story that CCHQ has set about exploiting today: the Mail on Sunday splash about Team Clegg’s plans to extend wealth taxes into your jewellery box. According to the paper, the Lib Dem leadership is considering—alongside the introduction of a souped-up mansion tax—an idea to allow taxmen into people’s homes to value, and then slap levies across, assets such as necklaces and paintings. Admittedly, Vince Cable has since played down many elements of the story, but not before Tories across Twitter seized on it with alacrity and gratitude.

In truth, the Lib Dems’ general eagerness to tax wealth creates as much a conundrum for the Tory leadership as a target. Of course, it’s easy to strike out at any jewellery tax, but a stronger variety of mansion tax is a different matter altogether. As “one influential figure” suggests to James Forsyth, Labour's sympathy for such a levy could alter the balance of negotiations in the event of another hung parliament – meaning that “Cameron will have to fold and accept a mansion tax as the price of power.”

Myself, I think the Tories shouldn’t dismiss higher taxes on expensive properties out-of-hand – for reasons I've set out before. But this is hardly a possiblity that will cheer many party members.

Second Eastleigh poll gives 3% lead to Liberal Democrats

By Tim Montgomerie
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Nearly 200 Tory activists were in Eastleigh yesterday and successfully delivered a first leaflet drop for Maria Hutchings. One source told me that the party was delighted to have got ahead of the Liberal Democrats who only selected their candidate - a local councillor - yesterday evening.

The race is certainly going to be close. On Friday a poll commissioned by Lord Ashcroft found that the Tories were 3% ahead with UKIP in fourth place. A new poll by Survation for today's Mail on Sunday gives the LIb Dems an equally narrow lead and puts UKIP in third place. Its headline numbers are:

• LD 36% (-10.7% compared to the general election)
• Conservative 33% (-6.3%)
• UKIP 16% (+12.9%)
• Labour 13% (+3.8%)
• Other 2% (+0.6%)

Continue reading "Second Eastleigh poll gives 3% lead to Liberal Democrats" »

It's neck-and-neck in the battle for Eastleigh

By Tim Montgomerie
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Last night the Eastleigh Conservatives re-adopted Maria Hutchings as their candidate for the by-election. Grant Shapps described her as a "mum of four who lives locally". You can read all about Maria on her Vote4Maria website and you can also follow her on Twitter. Most importantly you can get involved in helping her to win.

***

Yesterday Paul Goodman argued that David Cameron needed to win Eastleigh and a new poll from Lord Ashcroft suggests that the Conservatives enjoy a slender 3% lead in the seat vacated by Chris Huhne. You can read Lord Ashcroft's commentary on the poll here. His conclusion is that the race is far too close to call. We may have a 3% local lead but (i) the Lib Dems have a very good local organisation and (ii) they also will be aiming to convince a large chunk of Labour voters to vote Lib Dem in order to keep the Tory out. The encouraging news for the Conservatives is that the people of Eastleigh are very positive about David Cameron and some of our key messages:

• Asked to choose between having David Cameron continuing as PM or Ed Miliband becoming PM 67% want David Cameron and only 21% want Ed Miliband.
• By 57% to 25% all voters prefer Cameron and Osborne to manage the economny than Miliband and Balls. The advantage widens slightly to 59% to 23% when the choice is between Cameron, Osborne and Clegg and Miliband and Balls.
• Many Labour voters in Eastleigh prefer the Tory approach to issues than the Lib Dem approach. Labour voters who don't choose the Labour Party as the best party on a particular issue choose the Conservatives on five issues as better than the Lib Dems (eg cutting the deficit, dealing with crime and defending Britain's interests in Europe) while they only prefer the LibDems on three issues including protecting the environment.

Continue reading "It's neck-and-neck in the battle for Eastleigh" »

It's neck-and-neck in the battle for Eastleigh

By Tim Montgomerie
Follow Tim on Twitter

Last night the Eastleigh Conservatives re-adopted Maria Hutchings as their candidate for the by-election. Grant Shapps described her as a "mum of four who lives locally". You can read all about Maria on her Vote4Maria website and you can also follow her on Twitter. Most importantly you can get involved in helping her to win.

***

Yesterday Paul Goodman argued that David Cameron needed to win Eastleigh and a new poll from Lord Ashcroft suggests that the Conservatives enjoy a slender 3% lead in the seat vacated by Chris Huhne. You can read Lord Ashcroft's commentary on the poll here. His conclusion is that the race is far too close to call. We may have a 3% local lead but (i) the Lib Dems have a very good local organisation and (ii) they also will be aiming to convince a large chunk of Labour voters to vote Lib Dem in order to keep the Tory out. The encouraging news for the Conservatives is that the people of Eastleigh are very positive about David Cameron and some of our key messages:

• Asked to choose between having David Cameron continuing as PM or Ed Miliband becoming PM 67% want David Cameron and only 21% want Ed Miliband.
• By 57% to 25% all voters prefer Cameron and Osborne to manage the economny than Miliband and Balls. The advantage widens slightly to 59% to 23% when the choice is between Cameron, Osborne and Clegg and Miliband and Balls.
• Many Labour voters in Eastleigh prefer the Tory approach to issues than the Lib Dem approach. Labour voters who don't choose the Labour Party as the best party on a particular issue choose the Conservatives on five issues as better than the Lib Dems (eg cutting the deficit, dealing with crime and defending Britain's interests in Europe) while they only prefer the LibDems on three issues including protecting the environment.

Continue reading "It's neck-and-neck in the battle for Eastleigh" »