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Survation for the Mail on Sunday has Maria Hutchings four points ahead in Eastleigh

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By Paul Goodman
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The figures are:

  • Conservatives: 33
  • Liberal Democrats: 29
  • Labour: 13
  • UKIP: 22

This morning's Populus poll for the Times (£) found the following:

  • Conservatives: 28
  • Liberal Democrats: 33
  • Labour: 11
  • UKIP: 21

Lord Ashcroft's poll a fortnight ago recorded:

  • Conservatives: 34
  • Liberal Democrats: 31
  • Labour: 19
  • UKIP: 13

A few quick points:

  • If the polls to date are to be believed, the Coalition partners are battling it out for first place.
  • UKIP are clearly coming up on the rails very fast indeed, having increased their support since the Ashcroft poll, according to the others, by over a third.
  • Labour's John O'Farrell is being squeezed out, and some of Labour's support, like some of that from the two main parties, has gone to UKIP.
  • It is still probable that one of the two main parties will win, but it is clearly not impossible that UKIP will come second or even first, and should now come a good third at least.
  • Tim Montgomerie has just tweeted that it is vital that Tory activists pour into the seat before Thursday.
  • I plan to pour myself into Eastleigh, so to speak, on Wednesday, but have noted that the LibDem information on the ground will be better than CCHQ's.


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