Survation for the Mail on Sunday has Maria Hutchings four points ahead in Eastleigh

By Paul Goodman
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The figures are:

• Conservatives: 33
• Liberal Democrats: 29
• Labour: 13
• UKIP: 22

This morning's Populus poll for the Times (£) found the following:

• Conservatives: 28
• Liberal Democrats: 33
• Labour: 11
• UKIP: 21

Lord Ashcroft's poll a fortnight ago recorded:

• Conservatives: 34
• Liberal Democrats: 31
• Labour: 19
• UKIP: 13

A few quick points:

• If the polls to date are to be believed, the Coalition partners are battling it out for first place.

• Anthony Wells of Yougov noted earlier today noted of the Populus poll that "a quarter said don’t know and a further 12% refused to give a voting intention" - a big total percentage.

• UKIP are clearly coming up on the rails very fast indeed, having increased their support since the Ashcroft poll, according to the others, by over a third.

• Labour's John O'Farrell is being squeezed out, and some of Labour's support, like some of that from the two main parties, has gone to UKIP.

• It is still probable that one of the two main parties will win, but it is clearly not impossible that UKIP will come second or even first, and should now come a good third at least.

• Tim Montgomerie has just tweeted that it is vital that Tory activists pour into the seat before Thursday.

• I plan to pour myself into Eastleigh, so to speak, on Wednesday, but have noted that the LibDem information on the ground will be better than CCHQ's.