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The parliamentary arithmetic that shows the Conservatives to be 16 votes short of a working majority

Here is a summary of the arithmetic in the House of Commons (based on the assumptions that Anne McIntosh is returned as Conservative MP for Thirsk and Malton later in the month, and that when it comes to the appointment/election of deputy speakers, there will be one Conservative and two Labour MPs taking those posts).

The 641 MPs voting in divisions

Conservatives - 305 MPs

All others - 336 MPs
Labour - 256
Lib Dem - 57
DUP - 8
SNP - 6
Plaid Cymru - 3
SDLP - 3
Green - 1
Alliance  - 1
Sylvia Hermon - 1

The 9 MPs not taking part in divisions

Speaker and three deputies - 4
Sinn Fein - 5 (will not take their seats)

So with 641 MPs taking part, 321 votes are required to attain a majority of one, meaning that 16 non-Conservatives are required to vote alongside Conservative MPs (assuming they all vote as one) for any Conservative proposal to be passed.

Jonathan Isaby


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