“The number-one driver of not voting Conservative is not being white”

By Tim Montgomerie
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The title of this blog was an observation reportedly made by Andrew Cooper - the PM's polling and strategy adviser - at a recent meeting of Tory MPs.

A major survey by the TNS-BMRB polling organisation for the Runnymede Trust (PDF) found that just 16% of Britain's ethnic minority population were Conservative voters at the last election. That compared to 37% among white Britons. Members of the Indian community were most likely to back the Tories (at about 25%). The least likely were black Britons. Under one-in-ten Caribbean and African Britons are Tory voters. The Lib Dems didn't do much better than the Conservatives and worse among Indian voters. Labour is the dominant political party among Black and Minority Ethnic communities - winning 68% of all of its votes.

The Tory masterplan to win 36 seats from Labour and 14 from the Liberal Democrats

By Tim Montgomerie
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Just over a week ago Tory MPs gathered in Westminster for a half-day of presentations and briefings. One of the briefings was given jointly by Andrew Cooper, Cameron's pollster and strategy adviser, and Stephen Gilbert, the PM's Political Secretary and mastermind of the party's campaign operations. Over the last week I've been speaking to MPs that were present and piecing together what they were told and also their reactions to it. In speaking to other members of the Tory inner circle I've also learnt about some of the party's other general election plans.

There are ten things you most need to know:

1. Uphill struggle: The Tory leadership know that the next election is going to be a steep challenge. They insist they are working for victory but another hung parliament is "very likely" according to one senior Cabinet minister.
2. Battle for values: The Conservative Party and David Cameron are seen as strong but not enough voters see the party as "fair". In the next three years - off the back of welfare reforms, in particular, the Conservative party must present itself, as the party of true fairness and therefore win the values battle. This began with Cameron's speech on Saturday.
3. Reassurance not radicalism: The party will scare target voters with too much radical messaging. The emphasis must be on "grip and competence", not "frightening talk of transformation".
4. 100 target seats: The party is targeting 100 seats in total - fifty it already holds and fifty it hopes to win. The aim is to win 36 from Labour and 14 from the Liberal Democrats.
5. No expectation of Scottish recovery: Nearly all of the winnable seats are in England - mainly the South West, North West and Midlands. There is a possibility of one or two pickups in Wales but the party is not counting on any gains in Scotland. "Anything in Scotland will be a bonus," said one Conservative aide, "but we need to be able to build a UK majority without any Scottish MP."
6. Urban focus: 34 of the 36 Labour-held seats are largely or entirely urban. They have large public sector and often ethnic minority populations.
7. Neutralising negatives: Poor showings among women, ethnic minorities and NHS patients are biggest threats to a Tory majority and must be avoided by careful and strategic interventions.
8. The 10% most reachable: It's very early but the new voters most open to voting Conservative in target seats are disproportionately under 35, unmarried, above-average-income and from a BME background.
9. Major recruitment exercise: In April ConHQ will be looking to recruit eighty new graduates as campaign managers and, after intensive training, these will spearhead the Tory effort in a two-and-a-half year push from early next year. 
10. Beyond the presentation: In speaking to other senior Tory aides I've learnt about some of the other campaign ploys. They include fairer funding of the trade union movement; staggered timing of the election debates; and, most interestingly, the holding of a referendum on general election day to mobilise the maximum possible Tory vote.

Taking each of these ten points in turn...

(1) Uphill struggle: The Tory leadership know that the next election is going to be hard. They insist they are working for victory but another hung parliament is "very likely" according to one senior Cabinet minister.

The result of the last election is still the unmentionable topic in Number 10. Hushed tones descend whenever anyone dares to mention the topic in Cameron's presence. One source told me it's like mentioning Heather Mills to Paul McCartney. Certain issues are still tiptoed around, therefore, and there is a reluctance to conduct a root-and-branch reassessment of election strategy. The strategy that the Conservatives have, therefore, is one that is most noticeable for its continuity rather than its differences. Radicalism is eschewed. There is more emphasis on chasing the votes of the metropolitan rather than the striving class. Many 'Court of Dave' members still can't believe that Britain didn't vote for Mr Cameron last time and they don't know that much more can be done next time to persuade them that he's the ideal Prime Minister. There is a strong expectation amongst some courtiers that the party will therefore fall short again. A clear instruction has been issued to do nothing that would fatally jeopardise co-operation with the Lib Dems after another hung parliament. "If we don't quite win but the battlefield is covered in blood and gore the biggest casualty of an all-out election campaign might be us," said one aide.

Why Labour won four of the last five elections: a 2024 letter to Prime Minister Miliband

Paul Goodman looks forward to 2024 and in doing so explains some of the hurdles between the Tories and winning a majority.

Tuesday December 31 2024

Dear Prime Minister,

Why the Tories last governed with an overall majority in 1992 - over 30 years ago

Let me say at the start how grateful I am for the opportunity you have given me once again to serve the Labour Party, and of course the country, as Deputy Prime Minister since you first won office in 2015. As you know, I have been your strongest supporter from the very beginning.

Having won two successive election victories and being now on the verge of a third - an achievement that would match both Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair - you will presently be besieged by memos advising you how to achieve it.

I have no wish to add to their number, but believe that it is useful to review the history of the last half-century to help establish why Labour is achieving Roy Jenkins's strategic aim of making the centre-left as dominant in this century as the centre-right was during the last one.

Labour has won four out of the last five elections.

Of the ten general elections that have taken place in the past 50 years, five saw a Labour Prime Minister take office and five a Conservative one. The last 25 years, however, show a trend. We have won four out of the last five polls. The Tories last governed with an overall majority in 1992.

How has this come about? It is evident from our poor share of the vote - we have won the last two elections without reaching the 41% share of the vote that we achieved in 2001, let alone the 44% share in 1997 - that the explanation lies with Conservative failure, not Labour success.

The Conservative Party we have and the Conservative Party we need

By Tim Montgomerie
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Today sees the launch of MajorityConservatism.com*. It's my thinking on how the Tories might win the next election. Over time, however, I hope it will be much more than my thinking. I hope others will critique my thoughts and others will offer alternative ideas as to how we achieve a majority at the next election.

As I explain in today's Times (£) the Tory electoral position is not as good as it might seem. Our current opinion poll rating is flattered by the weakness of Labour. Ed Miliband is both too odd and too red. Labour has failed to detoxify their economic reputation. On welfare, immigration and borrowing Ed Miliband's party is badly out of touch with public opinion. But as Stephan Shakespeare and I argued in a recent edition of The Sunday Telegraph, the Tory leadership should not think itself strong because Labour is weak.

Let's look at some arresting facts:

1. The Conservatives haven't won a general election outright since 1992.
2. Against a discredited, disunited and badly-led Labour government we added just 4% to our support at the last election and 2005 was one of our worst ever defeats.
3. Only 27% of voters in the most marginal seats think we are on the side of ordinary people.
4. We have lost our advantage among women voters. Favourability towards the coalition is 12% lower among female voters according to internal Tory polling (£).
5. Most voters think the spending cuts are "unfair".
6. We were 10% behind Labour in the north of England in 1979. We are now 13% behind. In Scotland, of course, the situation is even worse.
7. After the NHS reform debacle only 20% think the health service is safe in David Cameron's hands.
8. Asked to say who the Conservative Party and David Cameron most understands, voters say the rich and big business. The group the Conservative Party understands least according to a YouGov survey for ConHome of 2,333 voters are families struggling to make ends meet. 
9. The Tories are still fishing in a smaller pool than Labour. While 70% would consider voting for Ed Miliband's party and 64% would consider voting Liberal Democrat, the ceiling for the Tories is just 58%. In order to win an election we need to convert a good three quarters of our potential voters while Labour only needs to capture a much smaller proportion.
10. Lord Ashcroft's 'Project Blueprint' survey of 10,000 voters found that (in his words): "For those who considered voting Tory in 2010 but thought better of it, the biggest barrier (which Tories are sick of hearing about but is real nonetheless) was the continuing impression that the party is for the rich, not people like them."

The Cameroons concluded that the process of reassuring voters that the Conservatives didn't have two heads could only be completed in government. Only by actually sitting in the nursery and not eating babies would we prove that our intentions were honest. Early experience of government, however, is suggesting we might be recontaminating our brand as much as continuing the decontamination. Her's a snippet from my Times piece:

"Voters, for example, are most anxious about jobs and incomes but the coalition spends too much time talking about the deficit. The shambolic health reforms erased the lead on the NHS that he spent five painstaking years building. His flagship project to define his compassionate conservatism, the Big Society, may be intellectually potent but has confused the public. Rather than arguing that poverty is beaten by strong families, good schools and work, the Government has often reinforced the left-wing idea that compassion is measured by how much taxpayers’ money it spends."

This problem isn't helped by Liberal Democrats taking every opportunity to paint the Conservatives in the worst possible light. There is worrying evidence that voters are giving the Liberal Democrats the credit for the 'kind and gentle' things that the Coalition is doing.

Over the next ten days I'll be setting out ways of getting to the top of the steep climb that is pictured at the top of this post. Replacing the Big Society with a streetwise description of compassionate conservatism. Putting the hard-working poor at the front of the queue when it comes to tax cuts. Taxing wealth more and income less. Emphasising job creation, not debt reduction in the party's economic narrative. Taking a tough approach to crime and sentencing. Pursuing achievable rather than change-the-world environmentalism. Turning St George's Day into a public holiday and holding a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU. Replacing state funding of voluntary organisations with voucher funding. Ending the Barnett formula. Worrying more about the local roots of candidates than about their gender or skin colour. Changing the Conservative Party into an Alliance of networked campaigners. Spending more Tory funds on targeted campaigning rather than motorway billboards.

Most of all we need a compelling economic narrative. Households are living under the shadow of two great challenges - massive debts and the fast-growing economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China. People are nervous. The Tory leadership is wrong to think they can be reassured by half measures. Tested individually the components of a bold economic rescue strategy will be controversial and unpopular but that's the wrong way of thinking about things. The most worrying thing for a sick economy isn't controversial medicines but a sense that the doctor has no cure.

* I have to apologise for renaming this site MajorityConservatism. ConHome readers had voted for FutureConservatism but I couldn't get used to it. MajorityConservatism captures what this part of the site is all about. It's about winning a Conservative majority at the next election and it's about listening to the majority of the British people's views on the great issues of our time.