Drop gay marriage. Commit to the NHS. Cut foreign aid. Attack Miliband. Leave Afghanistan.

By Tim Montgomerie
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Over the last few days we've been publishing your rating of 23 ideas to win the next election. 1,419 Tory members were asked to rate the ideas listed below on a scale of minus five (least helpful to winning a majority) to plus five (most helpful to winning a majority).

I've already blogged my encouragement that so many Tory members think that blue collar conservatism is so central to Tory election hopes. Some of the other ideas rated highly by Tory members are less resonant with the kind of conservatism I'd hope we might advance in coming years. Idea ten in the list, for example, is cutting foreign aid and spending the savings on British pensioners. Item 16 is about leaving Afghanistan. For a lot of Tory members it is clear that charity begins at home. There is also a belief (misplaced in my view) that dropping David Cameron's support for a policy like gay marriage (ranked seventh) will be more potent than, for example, recommitting to the NHS (ranked eighth). That overstates the potency of the gay marriage issue and understates the importance of the NHS. I'd have re-establishment of our NHS credentials near the top of my list of election-winning ideas.

In contrast there is more agreement between ConHome and its readers on the need for Conservative HQ to make sustained attacks on Ed Miliband and Ed Balls (item 14) and the need for more candidates with northern and working class roots (item 11).

60% of Tory members think pact with UKIP will help Tories win next election

By Tim Montgomerie
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This is the fourth instalment of a series of blogposts examining which of 23 ideas to win the next election tested best among Tory members. I've already blogged about the popularity of a blue collar message, members' lukewarm interest in a change of leader and the need for a bolder economic plan. Today we turn to Europe.

The poll finds support for an attempt to end the new division on the Right of British politics and forge some kind of pact with UKIP. Respondents were asked to rate "a pact with UKIP that avoids the two parties standing against each other in marginal seats" on a scale of -5 to +5 (where +5 equalled a "very positive impact" and -5 equalled a "very bad impact".)

1,419 members voted in the survey. 397 members (28%) said a pact would have a negative impact. 128 (9%) said a pact would have no impact at all. 856 (60%) said it would have a positive impact. 38 (3%) did not give an answer.

The overall average rating was +1.18, putting it number 18 in the list of 23 ideas.

It's the economy stupid: Tory members see recovery as the key to majority

By Tim Montgomerie
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Over the last few days we've been examining the potency of 23 ideas to win the next election. 1,419 Tory members rated the various ideas and so far we've learnt that members are lukewarm about changing the party leader and very positive about the need for a blue collar message.

Completely unsurprisingly the factor that was rated most important to Tory election prospects was "signs of an economic recovery". That option got a score of +4.16*.

Will we get those signs though? Is the worst of the recession over or will years of continuing austerity and the unresolved €uro situation mean that the economy will remain stuck in stagnation?

Tory grassroots see blue collar message as more important to Tory fortunes than Europe, crime or immigration

By Tim Montgomerie
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Nearly two weeks ago ConHome readers ranked the potency of 23 ideas to win the next election. Yesterday I noted the relatively weak showing of changing the leader to Boris Johnson or William Hague. Members said that greater party unity and greater loyalty to David Cameron were more likely to help the Tory cause.

Today I report the strong showing for what I have described as conservatism for the little guy. Dom Raab MP has called it conservatism for the underdog. It's conservatism for Howard's battlers, Reagan's Democrats, Harper's Tim Horton voters, Thatcher's Essex Man. It's a conservative politics that understands that the party cannot win without solidarity with the striving classes. It's the 1992 model when John Major's mix of soapbox-and-Brixton-conservatism saw the party win 14,093,007 votes - more than any British party leader had won before or has won since.

Installing Boris as Tory leader comes 20th in list of 23 ways to win next election

By Tim Montgomerie
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Borismania hits a new peak today with a Sun/ YouGov opinion poll suggesting that the Tories might be more competitive if he was Conservative leader:

"Labour’s current poll lead would be slashed to one point if Boris was Conservative leader. It revealed 34 per cent of people would vote for a Cameron-led Tory party, while 40 per cent would vote for Ed Miliband’s Labour. But if Boris was leader, support for the Tories would rise to 37 per cent, while Labour’s would fall to 38 per cent."

Earlier in the week we found that Cameron remained the strong favourite of Tory members to lead the party into the next election. Although Boris Johnson is Tory members' favourite to be the next leader once Cameron has stepped aside the Prime Minister enjoys a three-to-one advantage over the Mayor of London for now.