The latest opinion poll gives Boris Johnson a 12% lead over Ken Livingstone. Fraser Nelson is even speculating that the bicycling Boris might win on the first round. Things aren't exactly getting any better for Mr Livingstone. His campaign launch has been overshadowed by the news that he might have been in breach of Electoral Commission rules for seven years. Credit to the tireless Greg Hands MP for doing the digging on that.
Many people deserve credit for Boris' success. Stand outs are George Osborne for leading the party's attempts to correct last autumn's drift and Lynton Crosby for bringing strategic clarity to the campaign. But most of all, of course, the hero is Boris himself.
He always had celebrity. At the Gateshead Spring Forum, staff behind the bar were overheard saying that they regretted not meeting him. But he's got some discipline too, now.
Across London Conservatives who once moaned about a lack of reliability are noting punctuality and a crispness and directness of message.
The Johnson campaign has also produced interesting policies on a range of issues of concern to London: housing, London's share of the public expenditure pie, transparency of London governance, transport and crime. A Boris Mayoralty probably wouldn't transform London but it would undoubtedly make tangible improvements - most notably in crime if he succeeds in introducing New York-style crime mapping.
What can Boris do to close the deal with Londoners? In a commentary for Monday's Evening Standard Tony Travers identified the Tory hopeful's main remaining weaknesses. Labour's detailed polling suggests, not surprisingly, that Boris is vulnerable to charges of "incompetence" and "inexperience".
In the final phase of the campaign - there are about forty days left - Boris Johnson won't be able to transform all perceptions of himself but he can offer reassurance to voters that he plans to put a team in place that Londoners can have confidence in. Boris needs to take up some of the ideas proposed last week by the London Policy Institute's James Morris. Central to James Morris' five point plan was a Mayoral Cabinet that could include GLA members, council leaders and people with relevant experience of the business world. Such a proposal would not convince every sceptic but it would reassure many people that Boris Johnson had a plan to ensure a competent and effective administration.
There is also some speculation as to who Boris could appoint as a race adviser - he has faced unfair charges from Livingstone and Livingstone-funded surrogates that he is insensitive on race issues. Rather than a race adviser his Mayoral Cabinet could usefully include people from minority communities who are also authorities in key areas of policy importance. Ray Lewis, for example, of the Eastside Young Leaders' Academy would be an excellent pick. A former prison governor, Ray would be an first class adviser to the Mayor on social enterprise and youth crime.
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