Final YouGov poll predicts 6% Boris victory

The final poll of the election has just been (officially) published in the London Evening Standard and YouGov have Boris winning on second preferences by 6%.  On Monday the divide was 10%.

It's all about turnout now - a point reinforced by a presentation being circulated by Ipsos-MORI.  The chart below shows how, according to their numbers, Livingstone's likelihood of winning increases as turnout increases.

Here is a PDF of MORI's full analysis.

Comments

[Chad Noble]

May I be so bold as to predict less than 1% difference between RedKen and BoJo?

[Yet Another Anon]

Polls will close in just over 8 hours anyway, with postal voting many votes already will have been cast when they opened, and broadcast media are operating according to special rules so not actually covering campaigning.

So while it might be an opportunity for experimentation in comparison of polling and results, so far as the actual results go it's pretty much over bar the shouting.

[Edison Smith]

CPFC BBS poll of 358 voters (mostly in Bromley, Croydon and Sutton):

Boris 150 (41%)
Livingstone 112 (31%)
Paddick 37 (10%)
BNP (20 (5%)
Green 15 (4%)

http://forums.cpfc.org/showthread.php?s=&threadid=168578&perpage=20&highlight=&pagenumber=36

[Craig Fuller]

Why hasn't the Conservative Party offered a candidate who can do the job of Mayor?

[ToBusyToTalk]

Craig Fuller - is there nothing to read on your own Party's website?

[Orlando]

Regarding the IPSOS-MORI analysis, their top-line figures of 52-48 in favor of Ken are based on 61% turnout. The turnout in 2004 was 37% and the highest turnout in London local elections was 48% in 1990 council elections...now does anyone think that turnout will nearly double??!! I want the most people as possible to vote, that is democratic, BUT I doubt very much that turnout will be any higher than 45-48%. I think Boris is in very good shape, indeed! No complancency! The work continues until all polls close!!
Additionally, postal ballots are likely to favor Boris--IF Labour doesn't manipulate them as they've done before...

[Craig Fuller]

I am a Conservative but not, unlike Boris Johnson, a buffoon.

[LondonLX]

Let's see your membership card then Craig.... hmm I can see it from here.. you appear to have spelt "Conservative" wrong.. it doens't begin with an L or end in an R... or have 'abou' in the middle!

[Craig Fuller]

There are loads of Conservatives who don't rate "BJ":

* William Hague: "an eccentric"
* Michael Howard: fired him from a very minor junior shadow role for lying
* Michael Portillo: "unserious"
* Iain Duncan-Smith: didn't think he devoted his energy to his job
* Simon Heffer: see yesterday's Telegraph
* Peregrine Worthstone: see the First Post
* Andrew Sullivan: "a preposterous, if amusing ra ra, playing a preposterous, if amusing ra ra,"
* Amanda Platell: when he sold The Spectator on Edward Heath calling Hague a laughing stock while also a candidate in the 2001 election
* Not to mention David Cameron, Michael Howard and William Hague who all decided that they didn't want him in the shadow cabinet

[Julian Melford]

(Sung to the tune of Karma Chameleon, one of the Millbank Mafia's favourite tunes)

We’ve had four hard Labour years until today.
It’s been bloated council tax we’ve had to pay.
He’s a man who needs eviction.
He’s a plan ‘Taxpayers to soak’
He’s a man who likes extremists
He’s a man – who is a joke –

Karma Karma Karma Karma Karma Ken Livingstone
You’ve got to go
You’ve got to go

Mugging us was easy with his media spin machine
Red sold as ‘Green’
Red sold as ‘Green’

Every time he mugs a driver
It’s eight pounds now, not a fiver.

[Jill, London]

YouGov are vindicated with their predictions. Comrade Livingstone was smearing them and suggesting they were giving a distorted picture! So glad to see the back of Comrade Livingstone after eight miserable years of having to pay for him! Ken Leaving-soon - so true!