MORI Unison poll puts Livingstone 6% ahead on second preferences

A new Ipsos-MORI poll funded by Unison has Livingstone ahead by 3% on first preferences and 6% with second preferences. The Guardian notes that strangely the final results include answers from people known not to be registered voters. With this taken into account the lead decreases to 4%.

PoliticalBetting has the story and notes that it's not yet clear whether the wording has been improved on since the last poll.

Comments

[woodentop]

Unison sponsored...what a surprise at the result then - surprised the lead isn't more!

[olivepeel]

It's only about turnout.

If Tories turnout, Boris wins, otherwise the price for being lazy is Livingstone.

[Umbrella man]

Well said olivepeel.

[Paul D]

The bad news for Ken is that this is a poll of Labour party members

[Craig]

Its worrying if its true. Could have a major knock back effect on the Tories lead I reckon. Labour polls start to recover if Ken wins.

[bluepatriot]

Craig is right and that's why we need to work soooooooo hard over the next six days.

People outside London should forward themudthrower.com to everyone they know in London.

[Margaret Hemmings]

I blame Boris Johnsons bumbling performance on question time and other programmes. He is embarrasing!

We need a real tory candidate.... Norman Tebbit perhaps. He would easily win!

[Mavis Davis]

It's a bit late now Margaret. We are stuck with the buffoon. When will we learn.

We need an ordinary candidiate. John Redwood should run

[eugene]

I thought Boris Johnson demolished Ken Livingstone on QT last night...and I had been a critic of his public performances up to then.

Liked the Labour plants in the audience...they must have practiced in front of the mirror for a week! :) Despite the Unison Mori poll, I think Boris is there.

[Bob Duvall]

I have to say that Boris appeared out of his depth on QT. He had one of those looks.... what on earth am I doing here?

His heart is not in the job. He is not hungry enough for it!

Another 4 years of Ken I guess

[LondonLX]

Yeah.. the labour plants were pathetic on QT - when there's an educated audience they just made themselves look stupid.
"b-b-b-but you said watermelon"... they mud in their hands to throw but it ended up in their pants.
There may be an odd question or 2 where he could have given a yes/no, but he slaughtered ken - did you see ken's body language afterwards? .. trying to put his arm on Boris' shoulder - isn't that a "please don't hurt me" stance?

[Ken Banks]

http://youtube.com/watch?v=fKRJVBqvd04

Having watched Boris as George I just want to disappear down a hole. I just will not vote on Thursday

[Edison Smith]

Boris was awful on Question Time, but so was Paddick and Livingstone.

The whole programme was a put-up job. Paddick had the audacity to attack Boris for his private life, and the audience was seemingly made up of spotty Labour party members looking to bend over for Ken. Dimblebly interrupted so many bleedin' times he spoke for longer than any of the candidates.

Woeful, biased, dumbed-down telly.

No surprise Ken is ahead. I think he is ahead and all this crying in the press and 'owning up to the real propsect of losing' is just a synical move to motivate the otherwise apathetic (and largely pathetic) Labour vote.

I forsee a Ken victory. It truly will be a victory for evil over good.

[Thomas Hardman]

I was rather impressed with Boris on Question Time. I wouldn't say he was out of his depth - he seemed rather well informed.

Anyway, we can't blame this poll on Question Time - the sample were interviewed between the 23-24th.

[Hubert Biggins]

I feel this one slipping away from us.

I think Boris is about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory!

[LondonLX]

lol.. do we have some union people among us trying to sow seeds of doubt.
Can't sow seeds in concrete.. we're solidly sure with our candidate, thanks!

I really don't get the mentallity of people who vote for dictators.. it's not as if they're being threatened with violence if they don't vote for him? .. are they?
You never meet anyone that would admit to want to vote for ken.... who are these people?!

[Batten for Mayor]

Just as I was beginning to think that Boris might, just, be worth voting for, he bumbles his way through QT. Frankly, none of the three main idiots are worthy of my vote.

So I will vote for Gerard Batten, the UKIP candidate. He's the only one who would scrap the GLA circus. He cannot be any worse than three unwise monkeys wearing the red, yellow and blue rosettes.

The Tory GLA slate is even worse - Batty Boff and Vacuous Vicky Borwick at the top. After their pathetic performances in the hustings, they should be hiding in shame. These idiots are simply unelectable.

[John D]

Right, so according to a couple of (in my opinion) delusional posters, Norman Tebitt and John Redwoood would wipe the floor with Livingstone!!!
Have people learned nothing from the last 11 years in opposition?!?

Firstly, do people seriously think that Boris' performance on QT was so bad that they won't vote for him & by default let Livingstone in? 'Cause that's just daft.

[Mr Angry]

In fact the Unison/Guardian poll is even less reliable than it at first appears. It was supposed to be a poll of those "certain to vote" however when a number of them (those polled) were checked (by Unison as it happens) against the electoral rolls it was found that they were not actually registered to vote at all. This poll is meaningless and simply an attempt by Leavingsoon's shrinking fan club to persuade the reluctant Labour voters to turn out, and the even more reluctant Labour activists to do some work.

We need to redouble our efforts in this last phase of the campaign, this election is going to be won and lost on who mounts the more effective GOTV operation and that can be us if we all wade in.

[John D]

Secondly, this is one poll which may have iffy questionning/prompting and included people not even registered!!

[James Stewart]

I don't think that many people are watching the TV debates. But Boris has been bad in all of them. The funny thing is, with his background in the House of Commons and as a journalist, I really don't understand why.

Anwyay, we're stuck with him now. John Redwood or Norman Tebbit? Ken Livingstone would eat them both for breakfast.

[Paul Oakley]

Edison Smith is quite right at 6.45. Paddick is a typical holier-than-thou Lib Dem. His audacity in having a go at BoJo's private life was astounding. This from the hypocritical gay man who married a woman, Mary Stone.

[Sam R]

Steady boys, steady!
Far better at this time to have Boris appear as the underdog. That way the loafers who might think to turn out for Newt, if it appeared he might lose, will presume that he is on the way to victory, and stay at home.
Wonder how Paddick's comments about being able to work with Boris but not with Ken will react with his supporters - second preferences?

[Edison Smith]

Further to Sam R's comments, would it not be good for Boris to come out before polling day and say that, if elected, he'd ask Paddick to join his team?

That would bag him some Lib Dem second preferences, surely?

[Happy Tory]

I think some of the Labour plants from Question Time have migrated to this thread. Boris will make a brilliant mayor. Its incredibly easy to be on top of the detail of a job when you've been doing it for 8 years. Boris will very soon be on top of the detail once he's in office. And the sooner we get rid of Ken, who is absolutely gleeful and shameless when he acknowledges being power-hungry and conning Londoners, the better. He displays such shocking vanity and hubris that its a marvel to me that people have allowed him to get away with it. This is a democracy. It is our job to get rid of this terrible manipulative man.

[Edison Smith]

Happy Tory - how can you, and some others on here, be so certain of a Boris victory?

The polls point to - if anything - a dead heat. I simply am not convinced Boris will win. Believe me, I want Livingstone to lose as much as anyone, but until he's actually standing on the steps of the GLA reading his concession speech, I simply refuse to believe he will.

I have a nasty feeling in my gut that, despite the Boris campaign working its nuts off, Livingstone is going to cling on. If anyone can, it's this underhand and slimey incumbent.

Like in the horror movies, only when the zombie has its head clean removed from its body can the good guys rest assured. And only then.

[Serf]

Vote early, vote often.

This one is still in the balance. Everyone on our side must vote.

[Paul D]

I agree Serf - on the back of an 18% poll lead there may have been a temptation to think it was all over bar the counting

If this poll removes a touch of complacency ahead of next week's GOTV effort then it could be argued it's a good, or at least timely, poll for us

[For the Union]

What should worry the tories is that Ken appears somewhat immune from National labour....

Vote Ken, get Gordon seems to be an idea floating about in the tory rank and file but it doesn't look like it's working.

Lib Dems are FAR more likely to second pref Ken than Boris...

People hate the idea of racism...even if it was in jest.

[Edison Smith]

Not sure if this is old or new news, or indeed news at all, but The Times has come out for Boris:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article3818466.ece

Seems Murdoch is making himself clear.

[Northernhousewife]

Plenty of spoof Tories on here tonight.
Real Tories need to calm down and put their energies into a win for Boris.
Spoof Tories are only here cos they are worried.

Talking of spoof...For The Union, that's what it was. Boris was mocking certain attitudes in an attempt to and make them look ridiculous.

[tory picaninny]

A vote for Boris is a vote for a buffoon.

[Oscar Miller]

Boris put in a solid, decent performance on QT. Paddick was a disgrace - interrupting and making personal comments. He must have lost a lot of support. Ken was slick but who would really trust him? I really can't understand all these Boris put-downs. He will be a great Mayor of London. There is absolutely no reason to get demoralised by a somewhat dodgy poll funded by a pro Ken union.

[LondonLX]

"People hate the idea of racism" ... so they shouldn't be voting ken then!

I'm all for democracy but it appears some people are too dumb to vote for what's good for them.

I think people should be able to earn extra votes by getting qualifications or other ways. Maybe a multiple choice test about local politics to get another.

[Oscar Miller]

Three Line Whip have a great quote dug up by Dan Hannan.
Said Ken in his 1998 "Manifesto for a Mayor and London Assembly":

"So much of the American experience of directly elected mayors shows it gets progressively more difficult to defeat a well-dug-in incumbent who has been able to establish extensive systems of patronage.

"As recent experience in Paris also shows, corruption tends to flourish the longer an incumbent is able to hold onto power.

"In a city that changes as rapidly as London it is hard to believe that a mayor who has served two terms will have the freshness of approach that is required to stay abreast of such a dynamic city. I therefore recommend that no mayor should serve more than two terms.

"If I am lucky enough to be elected as London’s first mayor and bearing in mind that I have already served 5 years as leader of the GLC, I would not seek to serve more than one term."

[Treacle]

...and a big 'hello' to all the new faces on this thread tonight.

Anyone want to check the computers in City Hall for our new, oh so helpful, friends?

come on Mr Campbell, you can do better than this weedy effort!

[Yet Another Anon]

The Guardian notes that strangely the final results include answers from people known not to be registered voters.
If that is the case then why didn't they produce an amended version with those who were not registered voters left out, otherwise surely it is completely invalidated even before any other consideration.

[Geezer]

A Trade Union / Bob Worcester poll, published in the Guardian!!! Why the hell is anyone else giving this blatant piece of Livingslime bullshit any credence? They want to take the wind out of BJ's sails, Labour and their cohorts have been abusing "polls" for many years.

[snegchui]

Well, I will be down at the Voting Centre cheering for Boris. I have to admit on QT, he brought back memories of "Just William" reluctantly dealing with awkward adults. He fair scampered off the platform. I think it fair to say Paddick did the best, but that might be because he is under less stress than the others as he has no chance, so give it a welly. If Boris does get it ( I hope) I hope he has prepared himself for a rocky first month because I believe mayoral politics is a lot more basic and get-down dirty than national politics because you have much narrower interests taking things very seriously indeed.

[Londoner]

Check out the number of fake Conservatives here versus the number of fake Socialists on Labour Home. Then tell me what that says about the anxiety quotient in the Livingstone camp versus that in Boris' camp.