Ipsos MORI puts Livingstone ahead by 2% on second preferences

The race for the London Mayoralty isn't just a battle between Boris, Ken and Brian but also between YouGov, ICM and MORI.

YouGov are showing Boris well ahead while ICM and now MORI are pointing to a much closer race.  As revealed by The Guardian, MORI (Ken Livingstone's own pollster) has him 2% ahead on second preferences.  The graphic above illustrates the position on first preferences.

The Johnson campaign won't mind this finding too much.  They know that getting out the vote is crucial and they want every Conservative voter to think that it matters that they get to the polls. It does.

Comments

[C Powell]

It's not just getting the Tory vote out which matters; he needs to do something about the second preference votes. If those voting for Paddick choose Ken as their 2nd preference then he gets in, even if he loses on the first preference votes. So Boris needs to do more to get Paddick voters and to appeal to those who don't want Ken to have another term ie not just vote Boris because you're a Tory/like his policies etc but vote Boris to get Ken out. That needs to be much more explicit. My sense is that there are lots of people who don't want Ken, far more than those who positively want Boris so his campaign needs to get those "Anyone but Ken" voters.

[Adam-]

COMMENT OVERWRITTEN

[Londoner]

It was a mistake for Boris on Newsnight last night not to say, when asked, that his second preference would to to Paddick. By letting Ken say he would vote for Paddick over Boris, but Boris not reciprocating, it might lead Lib Dem/centrist types to think they are closer to Ken.

There is time for Boris to start emphasising the overwhelming need to be rid of Ken and to appeal to Lib Dem voters for their second choices to ensure this happens "just as my second choice vote will go to your candidate".

[john]

The poll was sponsored by Unison, a left-wing union.

[Kate Barker]

What was he doing in that debate last night? Not ready for prime time is he, our man.

[Sceptic]

The polls are erratic because the turnout will be lower than a general election. Yougov is showing a high preference amongst young people for Boris but they are less likely to vote. My view is that the race is too close to call.

There are signs that team Boris is panicking. This week, I received a long, frantic and hysterical telephone message from one of his staff, a Sloan with a cut glass accent, asking me to telephone canvass for him. I let my party membership lapse two years ago in protest at the blatant gerrymandering and cronyism of the candidates list, priority list and PPC selections. And we think that Boris and his team of useless trustafarian toffs can run London?

[snegchui]

In agreement with FT article a couple of days ago (directed to from this site), I think Boris MUST declare his management team, because unless he does, what are people REALLY voting for? Boris, unfortunately, has too much history to shake off his shaggydog happy-golucky persona, and more than a few people, even if anti-Ken, are going to have reservations about being pro-Boris. Now this Management Team is on the table, but as an unknown - and guess what people look at Boris's sense of humour and want nothing to do with this pig-in-the-poke. Will it be Vote Labour/McIntosh, get FarLeft/Ken being repeated by the Conservative Party ???? Or what, Boris/Norris? Maybe a stupid question but if not addressed cost more than it's worth. Come on Boris, it's not hubris to let people know what they will get, and if you have selected wisely it should boost the campaign. Aaah, the choice.....

[Gloy Plopwell]

COMMENT OVERWRITTEN.

[James Ford]

If Lib Dem voters in London do end up saving the disgraced and discredited Ken Livingstone, they will be guilty of the unprincipled opportunism that everyone accuses them of.

Surely no committed Lib Dem supporters would endorse the extremist cleric Yusuf al-Qaradwi, who supports female genital mutilation, wife-beating, and the execution of homosexuals? Ken Livingstone invited him to a GLA conference in 2004.

Do Lib Dems think Ken was right to back Sir Ian Blair over the De Menezes shooting? Brian Paddick doesn't think so - he quite the Met over its handling of this issue.

Are Lib Dems unperturbed by Ken's enthusiastic support for the regimes in Cuba and China, despite the well-documented human rights abuses?

Lib Dems say they are concerned about the impact that council tax has on pensioners and those on low incomes - but in London it is Mayor Ken that is driving up council tax bills through the 153% increase in his precept since 2000.

To have any credibility - or even to sleep at night - Lib Dem voters should really be giving their second preference votes to the only candidate that can beat Ken - Boris Johnson.

[Sean Fear]

MORI's lead for Ken Livingstone is actually 3% down on the last time they polled. The trend is towards Johnson.

[H.Hemmelig]

I watched last night's debate and was underwhelmed and disappointed with Boris's performance. His answers were evasive and shallow, and was clearly not on top of his brief. Ken clearly outshone him.

Boris is going to have to do better than this or he risks snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Myself, I am normally a Tory voter in general and local elections but did not vote Tory in the last mayoral election because I agreed with Ken on the congestion charge and his policy of opposing PPP for the tube.

On balance I still prefer Ken's transport policies but had been planning to vote for Boris because the negative side of Ken, the corruption and pandering to minorities, has really begun to outweigh his positives for me. After seeing the performance last night, however, I am beginning to wonder if that is the right decision.

[Serf]

If people can really choose a useless loser like Ken, then I give up. He costs 3 times what he did 8 years ago, with nothing to show for it.

How difficult is that to understand?

[Matt Barnett]

Why won't Boris prepare for debates and media interviews? He is letting all of us down.

[top of the shot]

I wonder how much time Labour Party employees spend each day posting gloomy snippits on Conservative Come. Or worse still, MPs staff, who are paid by the state.

On the ground in the Borough of Brnet, this has been the best campaign since the 1980s. Anyone who has knocked on doors will know that Labour voters are fed up, wont be voting or are like hundreds of Lib Dems voting for Boris.

I can see the poll being higher than last time and in this area we had a 43% turnout in 2004, one of the highest in London.

[Matt Barnett]

This is a forum for party activists, not the Boris campaign, which has its own website, www.backboris.com

If we are out on the streets night after night working hard for him, then he needs to work hard and the things it's his job to get right.

[NorthernMonkey]

I hope for your party's sake that Johnson doesn't win the election because if last night's debate was anything to go by a Johnson-led London would be catastrophic and hopefully put the Tories out of power for a generation in London.

[Kathleen Marsh]

Does Boris not have to debate in the House of Commons, did he not have to do this at the Oxford Union? What's the problem?

[David McEwan Hill]

I note the jitters starting now. Boris was a really careless choice as Tory candidate. All that was needed was a safe pair of hands to beat Ken. Instead you have a candidate that a substantial proportion of the electorate think is an amiable buffoon.
This could possibly start the salvation of the Labour Party.

[Voreas]

I don't know what debate the trolls and doomongers were watching but frankly boris held his own against Paxman. Livingstone tried Gutless Gordon's approach of spouting nonsense statistics and was effectively shown up to be a corrupt, wasteful and ineffective egomaniac, who like his master (lets cut the pretence of independent Ken) has a real soft spot for porky pies.
As for Paddick, he just seemed out of his depth.

[West London Tory]

I'm afraid last night's performance was Duff Hoon, and no, I'm not a troll.

[RedSam]

Top of the Shot - are you talking about LB Barnet or LB Brent (your spelling error makes it unclear!)

Brent would be something, but Barnet rather less exciting, given the way the political land lies...

[H.Hemmelig]

It's tiresome how anyone with an independent mind on here is automtically labelled a troll or a Labour hack.

I certainly am neither.

I will very likely still vote for Boris but with a heavy heart. He needs to up his game.

[top of the shot]

To Red Sam

Sorry for the typo, letter A was missing. It is Barnet. But dont forget, From 1994 - 2002, Barnet had a Labour controlled Council (albeit with Lib Dem support). Two of the three MPs since 1997 are Labour.

The swings back to the Conservatives are being recorded all over the Borough.

But my other comment about the number of anti-Conservative comments on here still applies.

You always know when the Labour Party are about to loose, they get nasty!

[Graeme Archer]

There are signs that team Boris is panicking. This week, I received a long, frantic and hysterical telephone message from one of his staff, a Sloan with a cut glass accent, asking me to telephone canvass for him

I have been impressed with the Back Boris organisation. We get targets for individual wards in the borough, daily emails asking for attendance at public events, and, yes, emails and phone calls asking us to telephone canvass. I don't think that's panic - I think it's a well-organised campaign. I have known nothing like it in 20+ years of Tory activism. I had zero contact from the Tory HQ during the first two mayorals.

[Graeme Archer]

PS

We get targets for individual wards in the borough

... which we are more than achieving, I hasten to add, in case anyone from Team Boris is reading!