ICM points to much tighter mayoral race

The latest YouGov survey - on Monday - had Boris 10% ahead but ICM for tomorrow's Guardian has Boris just 1% ahead.  Boris has a 2% advantage once second preferences have been allocated.

A poll yesterday of political insiders for the new PoliticsHome.com website showed that 75% expected a victory for Boris Johnson and just 25% a victory for the incumbent.

What the polls don't measure is the crucial get-out-the-vote operation where the Tories probably have the edge.  No room for complacency though for Boris.  Livingstone will enjoy painting himself as Komeback Ken.

Comments

[Paul]

Boris might be reconsidering those BNP second preference votes now...

[Dave B]

"The obvious question that lots of people have already asked in the comments to the last post is how to explain the big difference between this and the YouGov poll. There is a five point difference in the two companies scores for Boris Johnson, a four point difference in their scores for Livingstone - it seems unlikely to be just random chance, more likely it is something to do with methodology. After Ken Livingstone’s criticism of the YouGov poll the Guardian point out that (unlike YouGov) the ICM poll did include 29% ethnic minorities, which is the estimated proportion of London adults from ethnic minorities (though I’m not sure if it the correct proportion of the London electorate). The couple of percentage points difference in the ethnic make-up of the panel is unlikely to be all the difference though.

There is also the question of how ICM have dealt with turnout, and whether there is the equivalent of their normal ’spiral of silence’ re-allocation of don’t knows. We’ll really have to wait for the ICM tables to turn up before we can see. " Anthony Wells, UK Polling Report

[Ian McKellar]

The problem is Postal Votes. From my perspective, Labour use of Postal Votes is straight out of the Robert Mugabe Big Book on how to win elections.

Every PV should be checked and if necessary challenged-even if it means visiting each house and trying to speak to the elector

[Edison Smith]

In a way, this poll is a positive: it starkly highlights that there can be no resting of laurels.

Boris and his team (and every volunteer that can lend a hand) must bust a gut every waking hour up to polling day.

Have no doubt, Livingstone will use every dirty, underhand trick in the book to finish on top, and it's going to be very very close. The Boris campaign must serenly rise about the melee, and stay focused.

[Politico]

Its a double edged sword with boris - he is now on a tight lead, ducking and diving out of hustings etc for fear of a gaffe (which is inevitable) which could have implications on national conservative polls.

Almost all lib dem second pref and certainly all green will go to Ken. As much as i would dearly like a vicTORY, i really cant see it happening.

[Serf]

Almost all lib dem second pref and certainly all green will go to Ken.

In all the polls, Lib Dem seconds are going more to Boris.

Check this out
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/04/02/icm-has-boris-just-2-ahead/
for a level headed assessment.

[Geezer]

a Guardian poll eh? they always seem to come out with some polling cheer, when there socialist friends need it.