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Londoner

http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=562307&in_page_id=1770

I don't think Lord Levy's book is going to help Livingstone very much

top of the shot

According to sources on other blogs, the Mr UK Cello poll includes people who are not registered to vote.

MRUK have done most of their previous work in Scotland - and got it wrong !

The Mori poll was commissioned by UNISON, who use a slanted question (the question includes the fact that Mr Livingstone is the current Mayor), is also open to question.

But the only poll that matters is the one on the day.

Marmaduke Bracegirdle

If Boris doesn't win it could be very bad news for the Conservative Party as a whole.

Richard

Have we had any Mruk Cello polls before?

At the end of the day it's who can get their vote out that matters. As Tory voters (concentrated in outer London) are more likely to vote and as outer London has a higher number of voters this gives Boris an advantage.

woodentop

...that means that two of the final polls DON'T point to a victory for Ken Livingstone!

When it comes down to it, victory will go to whichever Campaign gets out more of its voters on the day. It is up to us to make sure it is the Boris team.

Not Boris

Even discounting the MORI and Mruk Cello polls, Boris's poll ratings are well behind the Conservatives' national poll ratings. With Brown and Livingstone unpopular, Boris should have a 10% plus lead on first preferences. His campaign has not been good enough. I doubt whether Lynton Crosby was the right man to act as Jeeves to Boris Wooster.

Sammy Finn

I will trust YouGov's finding when it's published tomorrow.

People are more honest to a web-based questionnaire than on the phone or face-to-face.

Why isn't Populus polling London?

Not Boris

"Why isn't Populus polling London?"

Because no one is paying it to do so. Without the patronage of The Times, Populus would struggle.

Oberon Houston

Its clear that its going to be very tight indeed. The key is going to be getting the vote out (GOTV!), especially if the weather is poor.

On Thursday I have a business engagement in Edinburgh at 10am that I cannot get out off, but I'm getting straight onto a plane after it and down to London to assist until 10pm getting the vote out. I hope everyone else can assist in some way over the next few days, but ESPECIALLY on polling day.

btw,

"If Boris doesn't win it could be very bad news for the Conservative Party as a whole."

Posted by: Marmaduke Bracegirdle | April 27, 2008 at 11:07


No. Boris was never given a hope of winning until recently. Even taking Ken close is a major major step forward for the Conservatives. We should not forget that a third of councils across the land are also voting on Thursday. I am expecting large swings to the Conservatives there too.

Edison Smith

There's no doubt in my mind Livingstone is going to win, and the press are going to have a field day because expectations have not been managed.

I will be doing all I can over the next few days to prevent this however.

top of the shot

Either Not Boris knows nothing about London or he is a Labour stooge - probably both.

London's demographics have changed over the last 20 years. There are now more core Labour supporters in the capital than Conservative core voters.

Therefore the poll results are bound to be very different - Doh !

I have not known an election for well over 20 years where there has been so much enthausiam for a Conservative Candidate. Boris polls well not only among Conservatives, but also Labour voters.

There is a mood for change and they do not want Livingstone any more.

Northernhousewife

Ken is more popular than Labour and always has been. If he wasn't he wouldn't have beaten the Labour candidate when he stood as an Independent and when Labour were popular.

Joining forces means we are up against the Labour vote and Ken's personal vote [which research has shown has includes many Tories].

Ken is wooing the Lib Dems whose candidate is so bad he can't keep them on board. The Greens are backing Ken. The BNP are eating into the far end of the anti Labour vote and BJ has rightly rejected their second prefs.

Boris is up against all comers. If Boris unseats Ken, it will more than the combined efforts of 11 years of Blair, Brown and the Labour Party have managed. I believe Maggie had a damn good try at getting rid of him too. And failed.

The result will affect the media narrative and it will help us enormously if BJ wins. It will be damaging if he looses but I don't for one minute think the media [BBC apart] will take the view that if Ken survives, so will Gordon.
If there was an earthquake tomorrow, which one do you think would emerge from the rubble.

Rob

Ken has a longstanding, unique relationship with London and Londoners. There will be no shame for Boris in running him a close second. If Ken wins, it will certainly not reflect any support for Brown. If the PLP take comfort from it, more fool them. It is not by coincidence that Brown's premiership has been hit by a string of disasters. The longer he is there, the worse it will get so if his position is buttressed by not losing London, that won't be a bad result for us.

Out of interest, should Boris lose, do you think his interest in London politics would extend past May 2nd? I read that Ken would like to give him a job... should Boris consider it or is it just desperate last minute stunt by Ken?

comstock

"There will be no shame for Boris in running him a close second."

Ah come on! You have had massive media attacks on Ken, a 13% polling lead, general disatisfaction with Labour and blown the lot.

Frankly the Conservatives have made a right cock up of this.

Not Boris

"I believe Maggie had a damn good try at getting rid of him too. And failed." Maggie got rid of the GLC.

Cameron should get rid of the Mayor and the GLA (overpaid and under-worked councillors) and return power to the boroughs. Only Lee Rotherham offered that policy. He was barred from the open primary in favour of Batty Boff, Vacuous Vicky and Lightweight.

Nobody gives a hoot who their GLA member is. Our Tory slate is full of the usual nonentities and failed candidates (including Batty Boff, Vacuous Vicky and Not So Cleverly). Lousy candidates for a lousy quango!

Yet Another Anon

I don't think Lord Levy's book is going to help Livingstone very much
There isn't much sign of an identification of Ken Livingstone in the minds of most people with Tony Blair or those in charge of fundraising or political campaigning in Labour during Tony Blair's time as leader.

The Greens and George Galloway are backing him because he is not New Labour, Labour re-adopted him because at that time he appeared to be more popular than the party nationally was.

I doubt anything in the book will have much effect, in fact the fact that Lord Levy is now an outsider may even help the chances of those who had been outsiders under Tony Blair, and may foster the image of Gordon Brown as being a change from the Tony Blair era even though so far as fiscal and monetary policies go with rare exceptions Gordon Brown led on them from the election as leader of Tony Blair on.

Oberon Houston

Comstock.

Mate, in 1997, the Tory candidate, Norris, a very good one, got 26.5% of the vote.

In 97, Ken had a 15 point lead, in 2004 he still had a 10-point lead. After all that time to perform, his lead gone. GONE!

In November you, Comstock wrote:

I would question how much this guy [Boris] wants this. Ken is going to make mincemeat of him at this rate."

Bit early to start spinning the line that if he doesn't win, its a huge failure. And if he does win? What will your line be then? Probably that the Standard won it for him, Ken was witch-hunted out and he'll prove a disaster. And when he does a great job as Mayor.... Well, never mind.

Yet Another Anon

in 1997
In 2000 I think you mean

comstock

Oberon, FWIW I'm no fan of Ken. But I'm going into a betting shop for the first time in my life tomorrow to back him. Why?

Well, what I said in november has come true. Boris has been dreadful in every debate I have seen.

Given that the polls had the Conservatives way ahead in London it *will* be a huge failure for you if Ken wins on thursday.

nobody

It is set to rain on Thurs!

Andrew Ian Dodge

Boris peaked too early and has scared the stuffing out of the Tory hating left. I predict Ken by a slim margin alas.

David

Has Boris confirmed whether he will stand down as an MP if he does win?

comstock

Yes, he will david

http://www.epolitix.com/EN/Interviews/200804/07a7a059-b343-43c8-bdc3-7aede24d8aaa.htm?wbc_purpose=Ba%252

4th question down

Oberon Houston

Comstock, I'm not sure where you get the confidence that Ken will win. The polls have been very unstable and its clear that it could go either way. Things haven't been helped by the partisan nature - on both sides - of many of the pollsters.

I think the result, if gaff free, will depend on the weather. If it's a nice sunny day and the Tories can get their vote out, Boris will win - but its going to be very close. That's why I'm taking days off this week to help the Boris Campaign, especially Thursday - its that close, everyone counts and there is still everything to play for. Lyntons strategy of concentrating on the outer boroughs is, I think, the correct one - but we will just have to wait and see.

I agree Boris hasn't shone in the debates, but most agree none of the candidates have done well. Given the 'nasty' edge to Ken (and Paddick recently for some weird reason I can't fathom), Boris would do well to get through these debates on a neutral basis.

Oberon Houston

...ps you won't get good odds on Ken at 11/10 to win, and Boris is still (just) favorite at 4/6.

This is a more accurate reflection of the closeness of how close things are, than all those wobbly polls.

Oberon Houston

...ps you won't get good odds on Ken at 11/10 to win, and Boris is still (just) favorite at 4/6.

This is a more accurate reflection of the closeness of how close things are, than all those wobbly polls.

Oberon Houston

...ps you won't get good odds on Ken at 11/10 to win, and Boris is still (just) favorite at 4/6.

This is a more accurate reflection of the closeness of how close things are, than all those wobbly polls.

Oberon Houston

Sorry, typepad was being a bit thick.

Forecast at the moment is for Sunshine..... and showers!!!!

Sh1t.

comstock

Oberon, I'd save my leave for something more productive if I was you because you haven't a cat in hell's chance- Ken's price is in freefall on Betfair as we speak......

If I'm wrong I'll run down the full length of Oxford Street naked this Friday night and that is a absolute promise.

woodentop

When do the tickets go on sale for Comstock's Big (?) Appearance? They will be selling like Hot Cakes I predict!

Andrew Jenkins

The tide is turing Ken's way from the people that I speak too. I think Ken will win. However, nobody is actually talking about 'Labour & Conservative'. This is 'X-Factor Politics'. Thus win or lose you'll all draw too much from the conclusion. This is about personaility to most people.

Yorkshire Tory

Ken or Boris winning really isn't going to make any difference in the marginals up here - we will judge Gordon Brown and the Government.

Perhaps if you got out of your London bubble a little you would realise that the Mayoral race, although important in some respects, really is of little influence in most places outside of the South East.

Oberon Houston

... Yes, with your William Hill betting slip in the drain.

I'm sure Tim and Sam will agree to post the occasion on conhome...

To avoid any legal implications, I'd settle for a promise to campaign for a week at the GE election for Redwood. Not sure what you'd prefer?

Oberon Houston

Yorkshire Tory, I take your point, but this is the London Mayor blog...

Oberon Houston

Comstock - You might get arrested. Legal alternative is to campaign faithfully for Redwood at the next election. You may prefer to take the indecent exposure rap....

Oberon Houston

... sorry, Typepad is really annoying me, queuing posts in the wrong order, missing them off then putting them on. DOH!

Malcolm Dunn

I would agree with you Oberon, Boris hasn't shone in debate ,neither has Livingstone and most certainly neither has Paddick. The lack of substantive ideas from any of the candidates has been the most depressing feature of this whole election.
I still think a narrow win for Boris Johnson.Mainly because I see no enthusiasm anywhere for Livingstone. I just don't think he will be able to get enough of his vote out.

michael.mcgough

With differences of just 1% and 3% the fraudulent votes will have great significance.

Oberon Houston

... and on Today this morning we hear that the Electoral Commission has warned that the voting system is at 'breaking point'. Yet the Government has refused to reform it.

Robert Mugabe eat your heart out.

comstock

LOL @ Oberon :D

Malcolm said "I would agree with you Oberon, Boris hasn't shone in debate ,neither has Livingstone and most certainly neither has Paddick. "

Eh? Have I been watching the same debates as everyone else? IMHO Paddick has been by far the best in debate- the only one with straight answers and clear policies.

Boris has been dire- coming across as clueless, and Livingstone only marginally better, coming across as arrogant but has proberbly done just enough to be 'the devil you know'

LondonLX

Paddick's job at the debates is easy - he can just play referee, he's nothing to lose, so he's always gonna look good. Although he doesn't. He just comes up with irrelevant personal attacks.
If you like strings of false/misrepresenting stats then ken is good at churning them out to try and make him look good - but he's looking tired... Boris is the one that shines and has the energy

Yet Another Anon

If it's a nice sunny day and the Tories can get their vote out, Boris will win
In the past bad weather tended to help the Conservative Party because fewer Labour supporters had cars, these days it doesn't make much difference.

I think Ken Livingstone will win a fairly hollow victory, mainly because people have severe reservations about Boris Johnson that outweigh the severe reservations about him.

It win't reflect badly on the Conservative Party, or on Boris Johnson who has done his best, but was best sticking at being editor of the Spectator and a backbench MP - destined for greatness, just not the sort of greatness that comes with high office.

Ken Livingstone though is on his last term, I doubt Labour will let him run as a candidate a fourth time and if he does run a fourth time then he'll lose heavily.

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