Someone from Surrey has put £5000 on Boris winning the mayoralty this morning. Ladbrokes says its now cut his odds from 4/9 to 2/5. He started off on 5/4.
Livingstone is now on 15/8 from 7/4, initially 4/7. Paddick is on 20/1 and Sian Berry 100/1. A Ladbrokes spokesman said:
"If this contest was a boat race Livingstone's boat would be taking in water and in grave danger of sinking."
William Hill yesterday cut Boris' odds from 4/6 to 2/5 and lengthened Livingstone's from 11/10 to 7/4. It has Brian Paddick on 25/1 and Sian Berry on 66/1:
"All the money is for a Boris win and unless Boris shoots himself in the foot (which he is prone to doing) we cannot see him getting beaten."
Also, in the first change to their Winning Party market for four months, Ladbrokes have cut the Conservatives from 4/6 to 8/13 to win the most seats at the next General Election and pushed Labour out to 5/4 from 11/10.
Nominations for mayoral candidates closed a few minutes ago.
Ken's 'if it bleeds, it leads' comment will hardly help him. So far I can spot no retraction.
Posted by: James Burdett | March 28, 2008 at 13:55
"The number of business people who think the Tory candidate is seen as "too much of a buffoon" has risen from 53 to 65 per cent since January, while the proportion who believe he does not come across as serious enough has also increased, from 57 to 63 per cent. The number of business people who think he has a clearly defined set of policies has dropped from 33 to 30 per cent over the same period.
Perhaps as a result of these concerns, 69 per cent of those polled expect Mr Livingstone to win the election on 1 May, with 28 per cent predicting Mr Johnson will become Mayor and only 2 per cent forecasting a Liberal Democrat victory."
More numbers from a Com Res poll in The Independent:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/business-leaders-back-johnson-despite-growing-buffoon-factor-801769.html
Posted by: Jack | March 28, 2008 at 15:01
First hand reports I have received from the hustings this week are that Brian Paddick is quite appalling. He comes across and stiff, argumentative and under prepared.
Our main danger is Paddick's vote getting squeezed, with what I would term the "Greg Dyke Vote" splitting off to King Newt.
We need to focus not only on Zones 5 & 6, which we will win anyway, but also the Battersea's, Tooting's, Clapham's and Putney's, all of which are gentrified areas now packed with potential Tory voters.
P.S: Fair play to Boris so far- he is looking like a serious politician at last [and is putting the hard yards in].
Posted by: London Tory | March 28, 2008 at 16:07
The staggering thing here is that Green Loony No-Hoper Sian Berry's odds are as short as 100/1.
Posted by: Jim Carr | March 28, 2008 at 16:12
Ken released his crime manifesto in which he comments that it would be letting Londoners down not to engage with religious leaders who made "clear their unequivocal opposition to terrorist attacks". One wonders, then, if he feels he let Londoners down by engaging with a religious leader who made clear his unequivocal support for terrorism.
http://littlebulldogs.blogspot.com/2008/03/kens-admission-to-letting-londoners.html
Posted by: Tony | March 28, 2008 at 17:09
Jack, I think we can ignore that Independent survey. Since when is 100 an acceptable sample size for any kind of opinion poll?
Posted by: CDM | March 28, 2008 at 17:46
In the list of candidates on the London Elects website, Shirley Houghton does not appear as Conservative candidate for Lambeth and Southwark. Is this an error?
Posted by: David Boothroyd | March 28, 2008 at 19:56
London Elects has no Conservative candidate for Lambeth & Southwark - can this be correct?
Posted by: Andre | March 28, 2008 at 20:03
London Tory's comment is a joke. Gentrification is irrelevant. Putney returned a Conservative MP until 1997 and elected Ms Greening in 2005. John Bowis represented Battersea until 1997 and Martin Linton's majority is wafer thin.
Posted by: Sceptic | March 28, 2008 at 21:20
London Elects has no Conservative candidate for Lambeth & Southwark - can this be correct
According to this http://www.backboris.com/boroughs/southwark/candidate.php it is Shirley Houghton
The staggering thing here is that Green Loony No-Hoper Sian Berry's odds are as short as 100/1.
It may as well be 10,000/1-she has effectively admited as much by calling for her supporters to give 2nd pref to Livingstone.
Posted by: comstock | March 28, 2008 at 21:51
Re Johann Hari's article in "The Independent" - Hari appears to be presenting himself as a one-man hustings for gay men. There are detailed responses from Boris, and Comrade Livingstone, but Paddick's are just skimmed over. That's hardly good journalism. And fellow Lefty journalist Nick Cohen branded Hari "deceitful" over a book review. Link:http://www.nickcohen.net/?p=248
Posted by: Jill, London | March 30, 2008 at 18:58
SORRY - RIGHT POSTING - WRONG PLACE!
Posted by: Jill, London | March 30, 2008 at 18:59