Boris Johnson set to win Tory nomination by landslide

Later this morning the London Evening Standard will report a ConservativeHome survey of 351 London Tory members and supporters which shows overwhelming support for Boris Johnson.

We asked respondents to our monthly survey: "Who would you like to see as Conservative candidate for London Mayor?"

• 69.6% (238 respondents) said Boris Johnson.
• 9.9% (34) said Andrew Boff.
• 2.3% (8) said Warwick Lightfoot.
• 1.5% (5) said Victoria Borwick.

Another 12% (41) said 'none of the above' and 4.7% (16) didn't know.

Although the survey sample is small the percentages point to a landslide primary victory for Mr Johnson.

Mr Johnson also performs just as well when the views of all Conservatives across the country are counted - a sample four times as large.  That survey put Boris Johnson on 71.3%, Andrew Boff 3.5%, Victoria Borwick 1.3% and Warwick Lightfoot 1.0%.

I issued the following statement to the Standard:

"Some will say that Boris' lead is so overwhelming that the primary process should be scrapped but there is still value in the other candidates testing and challenging him on policy issues.  In America primary elections force frontrunning candidates to develop the range of skills they need for the main election.

I am concerned, however, at recent suggestions by Party Chairman Caroline Spelman that the whole primary process is not intended to pay for itself.  A key aim of the process should be to recruit new financial and campaigning supporters for the party."

The rest of the August ConservativeHome survey results will be published from Thursday.

Comments

[James Maskell]

I dont think there was ever much doubt about who would get the nomination here.

[Tony Makara]

Boris Johnson, is a very popular man. He is a person that people take to in a big way. People like Boris. That's why Boris must be the man to take on Ken Livingstone. Of course the race for mayor of London isn't about personality-wars but nontheless personality will be a big factor. When Boris appears on TV to give an interview people stop what they are doing and watch, the man is charismatic, people want to listen to him. That sort of appeal is a godsend in an election.

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

Although I suspect Boris will win, it won't be anything like this margin. How many people who participated in the poll actually live in London?

[Moral minority]

This is no surprise and is a sign of the members' desperate desire for a celebrity candidate to erase the memory of the Greg Dyke fiasco. Remember that Cameron wanted to cancel the open primary and impose Dyke a joint Tory-Lib Dem candidate. That tells us a lot about what Cameron thinks of party democracy.

Only party hacks will have even heard of Boris's opponents. They simply do not have a chance against the clowning adulterer. The fact that he uses Powellite language such as "piccaninnies" does not matter to his Old Etonian and Bullingdon Club chum who would throw a Cornerstone member if he or she did the same.

It is no accident that Boris is not in the Shadow Cabinet. He is too gaffe prone and unreliable (as anyone who has booked him for an event will confirm). Yet we are expected to vote for him to run a City with a multi-billion budget.

This Mayoral campaign has turned into a farce of monumental proportions. We can only hope that Boris pulls out and new able candidate with integrity emerges.

[Sally Roberts]

Makes sense - he's got by far the highest profile. I shall be at the hustings on 10th September however and will be listening to all the candidates with interest! I also think Victoria should not be under-estimated and she would make an excellent candidate.

[Londoner]

Justin asked how many people in the poll actually live in London.

Er, that would be the 351 London members.

I'll put in down to post Bank Holiday torpor, rather than any strange chemicals in the air in north west London...

I agree when it comes to the vote the others will do a bit better, but I think it'll be Warwick who will score, rather than the others, when people have heard them at the hustings. Boff's standing is being flattered relative to the other two because he is well known to us old hands in London, and personally popular but Warwick has more substance on the issues.

[Mountjoy]

I had a feeling Boris's victory for the nomination would be pretty convincing. The other candidates are nowhere near as well known as Boris, and I think that Boris should win the primary with 70-80% share of the vote. (the 12% none of the above will abstain).

[Peter]

Well Londoner lets hope that Warwick does one better than you think and actually does get the nomination as we need someone from the grassroots to get in.

[Colin]

Greenwich Conservatives Poll:
Boris 47%
Boff 47%
Lightfoot 2%
Borwick 3%

Perhaps one of your famous Poll of Polls is needed?

[Londoner]

Justin - sorry I meant north east London.

Incidentally have the hustings dates been publicised to other London members on here? I have only heard of them from this site, although the party seems quite able to send me emails centrally when they want to on other topics. Still, suppose it might go against the grain to promote anything that smacks of democracy within the party...

[Londoner]

Judging by the results you quote in Greenwich, Graeme Archer would have to use his statistical skills to devise an appropriate methodology - or perhaps he already has!

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

I decided some weeks ago that I would back Andrew Boff. I have never been a massive Boris fan. That said, I'd prefer him any day to Livingstone. This contest isn't a 'beauty contest' - it's about choosing a person who can handle a massive budget worth £Billions, promote London internationally for business and pleasure, and, above all, making London a cleaner, greener, safer city where transport public transport functions as efficiently and as cheaply as possible. People are rushing to support Boris Johnson, despite him not having a single policy. Would you do that at a general election?

Boris is light on policy, gaffe-prone and has the wrong image for a London Tory Mayoral candidate.

Andrew, in contrast, has some really exciting policies, is a safe pair of hands and looks and sounds like a London Mayor.

Many people like watching Boris on Have I Got News for You and the like. He is indeed funny and unique. But to have him charge of our great city? I think they'd probably answer "no".

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

I don't live in North East London, Londoner.

[Paul]

After Mr Johnson is is confirmed as the Conservative Party Candidate, how many resources is the party likely to put into the contest? Does the hierachy seriously believe that the Mayor can be beaten? Although one can criticise Mr Livingstone for a number of policies he has implemented across the capital, surely it would be in the interests of the party to keep the contest about personality and not allow Mr Johnson to engage in serious policy debates.

[Bob B]

I have a sneaking suspicion that the rest of us Londoners might be waiting to learn about just what plans Boris might have store for London and Londoners before coming to a decision about whom to vote for.

According to a recent ICM poll of a few days ago: "Support [for Labour] has also risen in London, where it averaged 41% in 2005 and 48% now."
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/polls/story/0,,2156941,00.html

One of the many challenging features about London is that according to the 2001 Census nearly a quarter of the resident population was born abroad:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/uk/05/born_abroad/around_britain/html/overview.stm

No other region comes close.

Contrary to popular mythology, at 7.5% the London region has the highest Labour Force Survey rate of unemployment rate of all the UK's standard regions (for April-June 2007): Table 18(1) in:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/lmsuk0807.pdf

[Londoner]

Justin - I thought you were something to do with Tottenham constituency, but never mind.

I like Andrew Boff, but I heard him speak at a constituency event recently and he was not impressive. He was judged well below Norris in the past (did he try both times or just once, I can't remember?), what grounds are there for thinking he is so much better now, or are his supporters saying that our candidate this time can never be up to Steve's standards?

Re policies - I am sure Boris will have them in spades when the time comes (he could start by taking most of Warwick Lightfoot's).

[Raj]

Although I'm sure Boris is the number 1 candidate, I would be hesitant to use polls with a small sample - or is a few hundred ok for a poll like this?

Either way, the primary will be a golden opportunity to put "blustering Boris" in the bin and come across as a serious politician. I'm sure he can be serious, but he has through his actions furthered the media view of him as being of the "Tim Nice-But-Dim" sort. He will get a lot of votes but if he wants to be sure of beating Ken he needs to be controlled and take on the issues head-on. Ken will probably default to the "Boris isn't mayoral material" argument and he'll be put in a spot if his opponent looks like he can do the job.

[Bob B]

I have a sneaking suspicion that the rest of us Londoners might be waiting to learn about just what plans Boris might have store for London and Londoners before coming to a decision about whom to vote for.

According to a recent ICM poll of a few days ago: "Support [for Labour] has also risen in London, where it averaged 41% in 2005 and 48% now."
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/polls/story/0,,2156941,00.html

One of the many challenging features about London is that according to the 2001 Census nearly a quarter of the resident population was born abroad:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/uk/05/born_abroad/around_britain/html/overview.stm

No other region comes close.

Contrary to popular mythology, at 7.5% the London region has the highest Labour Force Survey rate of unemployment rate of all the UK's standard regions (for April-June 2007): Table 18(1) in:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/lmsuk0807.pdf

[Steve Smith]

On the basis of this poll, Boris Johnson looks like a shoo-in with an unbeatable lead, a bit David Davis had before he underperformed in front of the Party faithful and media and his lead evaporated.
Boris may well pass the 'who am I?' test. Does he yet come close to passing the 'what would I do?' test?
Far from being over, this contest is starting to get interesting, especially when all 4 candidates will have 5 opportunities to perform at hustings, each of which is a chance to drop a monumental gaff. The media will be out in force for a nice news-generating comment or joke from a candidate that turns out to be very unfunny in the cold light of day.

[Graeme Archer]

Although one can criticise Mr Livingstone for a number of policies he has implemented across the capital, surely it would be in the interests of the party to keep the contest about personality and not allow Mr Johnson to engage in serious policy debates.

Posted by: Paul | August 28, 2007 at 12:03 PM

I am getting really, *really* fed up with these visitors from Planet Labour Party.

A note about polls

1) I've got nothing to do with either the Greenwich one or the Con Home one! (londoner - cheek!)

2) The conservative home poll is not a poll, it's a self-selected unrandom sample of people who choose to respond to the questions Tim chooses to ask. Given that the party hasn't really bothered to publicise the contest at all, I think it's name recognition versus careful consideration.

I don't really know what these numbers mean - they don't support inference, pace the headline on the piece - I do know that the party should bL&*y well start publicising the hustings, hustings which ought to be the political centre-piece of the year.

Finally, can I remind you that the last time the party leadership bounced us into a celebrity endorsement as mayoral candidate, we ended up with Jeffrey Archer (no relation). We need to get serious about the forthcoming process and the approach we activists will take at the hustings. A coronation will be the worst outcome for everyone.

[sjm]

Details of hustings have been given to Associations, it's surely up to them to get off their backsides and start publicising them.

Perhaps if members spent less time whingeing about other people's attitudes to work, and more time getting on with the jobs 'activists' are supposed to be doing, we'd all be a lot better off.

Grrrrrr.....

[malcolm]

I agree. Running London is going to recquire a seriously competent managerial brain, is Boris really that man? If I had the vote it would go that person who could persuade me that they could do a substantially better job than the others

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

SJM, from what I've seen, CCHQ have done little to advertise these hustings or the primary in general. It's a bit rich for them to be criticising local Associations...

[Londoner]

Four points to sjm:

1. If CCHQ has email lists of party members (which they do, and use for the occasional email "from" the Leader etc), why do they think this process is so unimportant that they don't use them (even accepting that they might not want to incur the expense of using the postal list they have for more than one mailing)?

2. These meetings were only announced fairly recently (during August), when many of the party officers who might be responsible for passing on the details are likely to have been on holiday (yes, local associations usually depend on officers doing things in their spare time) and in a month when mailings to members are unlikely to be scheduled. This means that anyone with a life is quite likely already to have diary commitments on at least some of the four evenings involved by the time they hear about these meetings. The new timetable was set months ago - why could not these dates have been publicised months ago also, or at least people could have registered to receive details as soon as they were known?

3. Are these hustings supposed to be open to non-members who have registered to vote in the open primary? If so, it is difficult to know how local parties are meant to be publicising the meetings to them.

4. Only the relevant officers with access to local memberships contact details can do the publicising - so if sjm's complaint about "whingeing" is directed to us on here, I plead guity. I am not presently an officer of my association, and my association has a membership Data Protection policy!!

If sjm is connected with the party centrally, maybe he/she should remember that the centre's role should be to serve us, the members, not the other way round. We are not line managers to be kicked, but volunteers to be motivated.

[James Wright]

I'm surprised Boris Johnson has been so low profile so far.

I mean, isn't he just itching to get into the back of his campaign car, carefully instructing the driver "Let's go and look at some picanninies then."

[Londoner]

James Wright: I spot the Labour Party stooge, and hereby claim my prize.

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

I agree with Londoner. SJM is a woman and an area officer for NE London. She should be aware of all the hard work my Association does, without expecting us to promote a primary election which has been a farce from start to finish!

[Mr Angry]

Both Boff and Lightfoot would make a better Mayor than Johnson but that is sadly irrelevant because in order to win the election the Tory candidate needs massive name recognition and the ability to pull in second preference votes from a largely uninterested electorate. That means that Johnson is the most qualified to win against the vile Livingstone. Borwick is the token woman, no more, no less and the fact that she is also a K & C stalwart keeps that disporportionately powerful bunch happy so she serves two purposes, both of them internal.

Boris it is going to be but this whole process has done very little to recommend democracy as a way of doing things.

[Moral minority]

OMG, sense from Malcom! Boris is just an adulterous clown. There is much more to come. Petronella Wyatt and "piccaninnies" are just the tip of a massive Bullingdon iceberg.

[Michael Davidson]

God help us if Boris gets the nomination - it will end up like Ealing Southall but tens times worse. Mark my words - he will lose spectacularly if he gets the nomination.

He cannot be relied upon to go the next 8 months without cocking up spectacularly. Also, the fact that he isn't a Londoner and has shown no interest in London will put a bit of a spanner in the works. Although in Planet Cameron, such trivialities don't seem to matter much. Celebrity over substance, that's the Cameron ethos to a tee.

[Miss Tooty]

Boris maybe a very kind and nice guy, but most Londoners feel after a terrorist attack in London we need a responsible mayor. Sorry Boris.

[banboris]

Londoner - he may be a stooge, but he has hit the nail on the head. We only have outselves to blame fo attacks like this.

[John Moss]

I think a poll of 351 London activists when we have 24,000+ members all of whom are pre-registered to vote is highly misleading.

I declare my bias in favour of Mr Boff, but I have yet to meet anybody in the party who doesn't cringe at the thought of the gaffe prone, Eton, Oxford, MP for somewhere not in London, candidate, likely to simply reinforce the elitist, out of touch, irrelevant image which Labour and the left have succesfully painted us into over the last 15 years.

Johnson is another Archer - a disaster waiting to happen.

[Londoner]

Boris may not sit for a London constituency - but he has lived, worked (and cycled) in London for many years - so the "he is not a Londoner" argument is rubbish. I've seen him in Islington at week-ends near where he lives long before he ever became an MP. He is (or was) President of Islington (South)Conservative Association in recognition of all this.

John Moss's perception just isn't the general one - most local members I have spoken to on the issue are all for Boris. And I have even met one Labour Party member who says she would vote for him rather than Livingstone, and lots of interest from London friends who are members of no political party. The "accident" on Archer was a criminal charge (and conviction). Even if Boris does make the odd "gaffe" (heavens, gaffes have never done Livingstone any harm have they?), to compare him with Archer is actionable, and John Moss should withdraw the comparison. Fortunately for him, being a journo, Boris is not the litigious type.

Boris will need to put up a good peformance in the hustings - one of substance as well as style. But I bet he does.

[Mary Hinge]

"351 London Tory members and supporters"

Why have you excluded non-supporters? Surely you are using a sample of a wrong population given all London electors are eligible to vote.

If you seriously believe the real voting will be as per your "poll" (it can't be a poll given its self selecting nature) then you have completely lost the plot Mr Montgomerie

[Hannibal]

Only Boris has a chance of denting Red Ken's London lead.

Here's an article showing the tactics to which his Labour opponents are stooping even BEFORE he has won the nomination:

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23410465-details/How+Boris+quotes+were+spun/article.do

How scared are they?

[Opinicus]

More to the point this is a primary for the whole of London. If I was Ken/Brown I would think that £10000 spent on the primary in favour of one of the other candidates would save the need for a lot more advertising expenditure next April.

Boris is popular but if the Labour party wants to be sure of winning for that reason not the most likely to get the phone in vote.

[Friends of Ken Livingstone]

The Baby-eating Boris of Balliol will never be allowed to humiliate chairman Ken. We are organising a progressive democratic revolution as you speak your trecherous words - capitalist pigs!

[John Moss]

Londoner: to compare him with Archer is actionable, and John Moss should withdraw the comparison

It was reasonably spottable by those who chose to, to see the possibility that Archer would be a disasterous candidate. I believe Johnson has the same capacity for spectacular self-destruction and for attracting electorally suicidal media ridicule. He may not, but the potential exists.

Therefore, Johnson is another Archer - a disaster waiting to happen.

And whilst I am happy to put my name to the comment again, I note "Londoner" remains steadfastly anonymous.