Poll suggests UKIP will beat Lib Dems in tomorrow's elections

There is a poll by ComRes for the Coalition for Marriage specifically on the local elections just polling those in the areas that are voting. The figures show the Conservatives ahead of Labour. But that is because most of the sold Labour territory - Scotland and the big cities - are not voting.

Actually the swing from Labour to the Conservatives is rather higher than indicated elsewhere. Anthony Wells says it implies losses of 500 Conservative seats rather than the 300 estimate from Rallings and Thrasher based on council byelections.

Anyway the figures are:

• Conservatives 31% (down 13% from the 44% share in 2009 when these seats were last contested.)
• Labour on 24% (up 11% from the 13% share they got last time)
• UKIP 22% (up 17% from the 5% they got last time)
• Lib Dems 12% (down 13% on the 25% they got last time.)

This might imply the Lib Dems holding their own against the Conservatives with both parties vote share falling equally.

One problem with polling for local elections is that there is a lower turnout. This poll found that 56% said they were "absolutely certain to vote." A whole lot more were almost certain, etc. Do you believe them? Turnout for the council elections last year was 32%. Yet the electorate keeps complaining about politicians lying...

Also the polling was conducted from April 24th-28th. If you look at the general polling from YouGov UKIP have risen since then in national share from 11% to 14%. That implies UKIP even higher than the ComRes estimate.

Over at Lib Dem Voice Stephen Tall makes the point that even if UKIP gets a higher vote share the Lib Dems could still get more councillors. UKIP's support is spread around more, the Lib Dems is more concentrated. That's true to an extent. If UKIP were a couple of points ahead I would agree. But if UKIP end up with twice as many votes as the Lib Dems I suspect UKIP would also end up with more councillors.