New poll gives Boris a 12% lead, biggest of campaign

By Tim Montgomerie
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With just two full days until polling day Populus have released their poll on the London Mayoral election and are saying that Boris Johnson is on course for a big win.

In a poll for The Times, Populus put Boris Johnson 46% to 34% ahead of Ken Livingstone in the first round and and 54% to 44% in the second round. In other words the Mayor has a 12% lead in both rounds in his bid for what would be a spectacular re-election.

I say "spectacular" because the Conservatives are 11% behind Labour across London in the same poll, by 44% to 33%. Boris Johnson is out-performing his party by a massive margin. By the same token, of course, Ken Livingstone is badly under-performing his party.

A total of one-in-six Labour voters tell Populus that they'll be voting for Boris.

If Populus is accurate the Liberal Democrat Brian Paddick is set to come a humiliating fourth in the first round with just 5% of the vote. Green Jenny Jones could finish third, with 6% of support.

A poll earlier today gave Boris a much more modest 4% advantage.

Boris got another boost this evening with a front page endorsement from the London Evening Standard. The Standard hasn't been as partial as four years ago but you can read the endorsement here.