Yvette Cooper should apologise for blocking access to foodbanks

By Harry Phibbs
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The Labour Party have been keen to make political capital over the increase in the number of people using Foodbanks.

Labour's response crass for various reasons. Foodbanks were already expanding under the Labour Government. Most of those that use  foodbanks are in a short term crisis.

The need for foodbanks isn't new - but more of them mean that more is being done to meet that need and to help people going through a bad time.

As I have written before this doesn't mean that general economic conditions are irrelevant. Increases in the price of food and energy have been above inflation - it is these price rises which hit the poor hardest. Politicians concerned about the poor should consider what can be done about this. While the Government can be proud of tax cuts for the low paid - that doesn't mean it is enough. The tax cuts may well be more than offset by higher costs for eating or heating.

I visited the foodbank in my borough recently. (It was the one which had earlier been visited by Ed Miliband.)

Five things we’ve learnt about Ed Miliband’s Labour from their Manchester conference

By Peter Hoskin
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Labour’s five-day jamboree ends today. There will be a closing speech by Harriet Harman at lunchtime, as well as some prior talks, before everyone leaves Manchester to the Greatest Football Team in the World, and decamps to their constituencies and to London. So apologies if this quick list of the things we’ve learnt from the Labour conference is a little premature, but I can’t see things changing much this morning. Here goes:

1) In  terms of presentation, Labour are turning blue. In my ConHome column on Tuesday, I wrote that the most important aspect of the Labour conference was how “Ed Miliband’s party is straying onto territory usually occupied by the Conservatives” — and that was even before the “One Nation” speech that Mr Miliband delivered later that day. From the emphasis on property ownership to Yvette Cooper’s claim that Labour are “now the party of policing”, from the rediscovered patriotism to the blue backdrop of the main stage, there appeared to be a concerted effort to broaden the party’s appeal rightwards. “Red Ed no more,” was the message. “Vote for Blue Ed.”

2) In terms of substance, Labour are staying red. But look beyond the performances and the stage lighting, and the (few) policies that Labour are espousing are still dripping red. There’s the example I used in my column: the party’s drive towards property ownership is based around more and more spending, and implicitly critiques Thatcher-era policies such as the Right to Buy. But we saw it too in those moments when Labour’s speakers tore up the Tory copybook, such as when Andy Burnham railed against “privatisation” in the NHS. Some of this is Labour staying on their comfort ground but, to my eyes, some of it is more than that. They’re trying to create a new generation of Labour voters by wrapping left-wing policies in centrist, or even right-wing, language.

The Sun praises Yvette Cooper MP for "speaking our language on crime"

By Tim Montgomerie
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John Prescott took to Twitter yesterday to question whether David Miliband (last week) and Yvette Cooper (this week) should be writing for Rupert Murdoch's Sun on Sunday.

Perhaps the Labour grown-ups want to reach The Sun's five million readers?

Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper wins a big spread (right) in Britain's newest newspaper for attacking the Coalition's law and order credentials.

Her second reward for ignoring the Prescott boycott was these warm words from The Sun's leader-writers:

"David Cameron's declaration of war on Britain's knife crime scourge won him support from actress Brooke Kinsella — whose brother was stabbed to death — and The Sun. Yet on his watch, knife thugs are spared jail, while robberies at knifepoint rose by ten per cent in the year to the end of September. Labour's Yvette Cooper is speaking our language on crime. It's no surprise to see her cutting the PM's poll lead on law and order."

The Sun also publishes polling which suggests the Tory advantage over Labour on law and order has shrunk from +23% to +12%. Polling published last year by Lord Ashcroft suggested the NHS and crime were biggest barriers between the Conservative Party and winning the next election.

This is the story that Mrs Cooper tells in her article:

"Meeting police officers in the Midlands last month, I was told a shocking story. A 999 call had come in about a hit-and-run but the nearest officer was 45 minutes away. When the constable finally arrived, blue light flashing, the culprit was long gone. Angry residents started a slow handclap. Police forces are struggling to cope with cuts of 16,000 officers thanks to this government. And communities are paying the price. That is David Cameron's law and order policy: Crime up, police down."

With barely 10% of all departmental spending cuts implemented we will get many more hard case stories like this from Labour in the years to come.

A LabourList poll suggests a steep decline in popularity for Ed Miliband over strikes

By Joseph Willits 
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Last week we reported some bad news for Ed Miliband, that according to a poll in the Sun, only 1 in 5 Labour voters would back him. Today signals further disappointment for the Labour leader with a poll on LabourList blaming Miliband's handling of public sector pensions strikes on 30th November for a steep decline in popularity.

• Only 26% of those polled consider Ed Miliband to be doing a 'good' or 'excellent' job as leader of the Labour party, compared to 40% in October, and 59% at his peak in July.
• The biggest percentage grouping of 41% felt Miliband's performance was 'poor' or 'very poor'.
• 33% would describe Miliband as 'average'.
• Although 83% of LabourList readers backed the strikes, 67% believed Miliband handled the situation badly. 
• Tom Watson, Yvette Cooper, and Andy Burnham were the three most popular in the Shadow Cabinet.

The poll was conducted between Monday 5th and Friday 9th December. 604 people voted. LabourList's Mark Ferguson wrote:

"It remains to be seen whether Miliband can bounce back in the New Year, or whether the damage done is permanent".

Only 1 in 5 Labour voters would back Ed Miliband, according to a poll in The Sun

By Joseph Willits 
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Today's Sun carries a YouGov poll which is bad news for the Labour party generally - and Ed Miliband personally.

• The poll suggests that only 1 in 5 Labour voters believe that Miliband is doing a good enough job.

• 51% of Labour voters saying that Miliband could do better.

• 40% of these have given Miliband a year's ultimatum to improve.

• A further 26% have given him up to 2 years to up his game.

• Only 17% would allow Ed Miliband up until the next election in 2015, time to improve.

Only yesterday it was reported that Miliband's picture was absent from Labour's election literature for December 15th's Feltham and Heston byelection. 

Grant Shapps helps to highlight Labour's "cover-up" on immigration

By Joseph Willits 
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According to reports this morning, more evidence is emerging over a Labour cover up on immigration.  Both the Daily Mail and the Daily Express refer to £165,000 of taxpayer-funded documents prepared by the Department for Communities and Local Government which were never published by the previous government.

The documents contain new revelations about migrants from Bulgaria and Romania, as well as some more general statistics on immigration. Some of the previously unknown findings are as follows:

• 25 % of those arriving from Bulgaria and Romania had low education levels.
• Many immigrants from Bulgaria and Romania had four or more children.
• Three in every 100 migrants from Bulgaria and Romania had five children or more.
• The likelihood of claiming unemployment benefits was higher amongst Bulgarians and Romanians than other immigrants.
• Unemployment generally worse in the immigrant population as a whole.
• The immigrant community is less likely to take part in forms of civic participation.
• A population increase of 4 million from 2008 - 2018.
• A third of people in London were born outside of the U.K.
• By 2004-2007, net immigration was at 178,300.

One quarter of voters look at a photo of Ed Miliband and think it's David Miliband...

By Tim Montgomerie
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A photograph of one of the Miliband brothers.

Some light relief...

23% of people see a photo of Ed Miliband and think it's David Miliband and 26% of people think David Miliband is Ed Miliband.

33% of voters correctly recognise Yvette Cooper as Yvette Cooper but 20% think she's Harriet Harman.

30% of people correctly recognise Douglas Alexander as Douglas Alexander but just as many think he's Andy Burnham.

Only 25% of voters can correctly identify Jim Murphy. More voters (30%) identify him as Liam Byrne.

Ed Balls is the most recognisable member of the top Labour team. 68% correctly identify him. Only 64% correctly identify the Labour leader.

And in evidence that the Conservatives are serious about 'knowing the enemy', Conservative voters are more likely to correctly identify the Labour shadow cabinet than Labour voters.

The results come from a ComRes poll of more than 2,000 voters for The Independent.

I wrote that Ed Miliband's first appointments showed fear. As Red Ed Two takes charge, this one shows desperation.

by Paul Goodman

"The appointment of Alan Johnson looks like a weak compromise.  Balls has been dispatched as Shadow Home Secretary to bully Theresa May.  Cooper has been sent out of the country altogether - for parts of year at least - to trot the globe as Shadow Foreign Secretary.  It looks as though Miliband wants to break up a rival power base.  Johnson is an agile and able operator well qualified to play class war politics opposite George Osborne.  That's fine for opposing "the cuts".  It's not so convincing if you're trying to persuade voters that you should be Britain's bank manager."

The paragraph above is part of a piece I wrote immediately after Ed Miliband's first Shadow Cabinet appointments.  It was titled: Cameron's first Shadow Cabinet appointments showed confidence. Miliband's show fear.

Johnson proved to be less agile and able than I'd anticipated.  But otherwise the rest of the piece was on the fairway: as Shadow Chancellor, he didn't even begin to persuade voters that he could have cut it at the Treasury.

There's not yet a clear sense of why he's left.  He couldn't have gone into the next election as Labour's future Chancellor, as his recent bungles with figures demonstrated, but the resignation doesn't look to have been forced by Labour's leader to sort the problem now.

At any rate, Miliband has got the Shadow Chancellor he strived so hard to avoid.  The power base that he sought to break up is in place.  It is awkward for the Labour leader at best, humiliating for him at worst - and dangerous in any event.  It's not hard to see Kinnock/Smith-style problems ahead.

Either way, Mr Deficit Denier himself will now lead for Labour on the economy.  In sum, his appointment -

• Breaks with the Miliband/Johnson/Darling/Brown Labour orthodoxy on the deficit.  Balls would reduce it less swiftly.

• Throws Balls's Labour leadership speech forecasting a double-dip recession into the spotlight.  It will be fiercely, constantly tested against events.

• Pits two ruthless and resourceful strategists up against each other: yes, it's Osborne v Balls.

• Weakens Miliband - now hemmed in not only by his new Shadow Chancellor, but by Yvette Cooper's return from the relatively distant world of foreign affairs to the domestic crucible of the Home Office.  Douglas Alexander, a reasonable voice of opposition to IDS, is moved abroad (so to speak).

Oh, and the timing of the news is a lucky break for Sayeeda Warsi.  Up to a point, anyway.

Bad news for Miliband, worse news for Johnson and good news for Balls in Labour List's monthly poll

by Paul Goodman

I smelt fear in Ed Miliband's Shadow Cabinet appointments.  The movement of the Balls/Cooper duo to non-economic posts, and the appointment of Alan Johnson as Shadow Chancellor, suggested anxiety - a dread of them grabbing Labour's steering wheel.

According to a Labour List monthly poll, Miliband would be right to be wary.  Attention will probably focus on the fall in the percentage of those believing that he's doing an excellent or good job.  Mark Ferguson writes -

"37% of those voting believe he's doing a good job, with 12% rating his performance so far as excellent. However 32% believe that his performance as leader has been only "fair", with 19% (up from only 12% in November) considering his performance "poor"."

51% believe that Miliband's perfomance is either "fair" or "poor".  Those plumping for the more positive categories - "excellent" or "good" tot up to only 49%.  81% have no view of Ann McKechin.

The most popular member of the shadow cabinet, with a positive rating of 80%, is Andy Burnham.  But Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper come in at 79% and 75% of respondents respectively.  Ferguson also notes that -

"Alan Johnson's popularity has also taken a hit over the past month. Back in November Johnson was rated positively by 75% of readers and negatively by just 18%. This month Johnson is viewed negatively by 38% (with 55% positive) - making him the least popular shadow cabinet member with LabourList readers."

This decline was doubtless driven by his very public falling out with Unready Eddie over the 50p rate and a graduate tax.  But Balls has also been in on the action, raising questions about a Miliband performance at Prime Minister's Questions.

The Shadow Home Secretary is a master of the dark arts, and knew exactly what he was doing.  The poll should convey a message to Miliband: watch your back.

Ed Miliband's ten troubles

Tim Montgomerie

Ed Miliband returns to work today after his paternity break. His party is level-pegging in the polls but he hasn't enjoyed any honeymoon since becoming leader. If anything his party is doing slightly worse than before he became leader... despite George Osborne's announcement of spending cuts... despite an average disapproval rating for the Coalition of 10%... and despite unhappiness about Europe and crime from the Tory base.

Pasted below are the key vulnerabilities of his leadership, as identified by key commentators.

Alan Johnson Versus Ed MIliband over 50p and tuition fees...

• Chancellor/ leader disagreements are fatal and Martin Ivens in The Sunday Times (£) notes how Alan Johnson continues to publicly disagree with Ed Miliband on current issues like tuition fees and the 50p tax band: "While others moan that they can’t get a hearing, the shadow chancellor... backed a change to Labour’s voting system and lobbied for tuition fees against the graduate tax favoured by his leader. To cap that, Johnson last week made it admirably clear that the 50p income tax band introduced by the last Labour government must only be a temporary measure to get Britain through “difficult economic times”."

Alan Johnson Versus Ed Miliband over union power...

• "Alan Johnson leads calls... for reform of the Labour Party, declaring that the system that elected Ed Miliband as party leader was wrong and should be changed to weaken the grip of trade unions. The Shadow Chancellor’s comments to The Times reflect deep unease among party modernisers over a result in which David Miliband lost, even though he won more support from Labour members and MPs, because his younger brother was backed strongly by trade union votes." - Times (£)

Ed Balls Versus Ed Miliband over personal ambition...

• Dan Hodges in the New Statesman quoting a "Senior Brownite" talks about tensions between Ed Balls and the Labour leader: "Ed Miliband's team are terrified of Ed Balls and Yvette. They think they're going to come and try and kill him. And the reason they think that is because they will."

A vacuum where leadership should be...

• Dan Hodges in the New Statesman quoting a shadow minister looks at the lack of direction from the top of the party: "There's a sense of a vacuum developing. People are looking for leadership and direction. And at the moment, they're not getting it."
• The TImes (£) leader-writers: "Rebuilding after the Brown years requires imagination and courage. Labour is divided and directionless. Since the election it has drifted, and the election of Ed Miliband has not halted the drift. He has somehow succeeded to the office of leader of the party while leaving it vacant at the same time. Mr Miliband is bound to show greater courtesy to his colleagues and more self-discipline than his predecessor. But it is less obvious that he will avoid other vices of Mr Brown. He will need to be able to make decisions rapidly that signal Labour’s direction and he will need to ensure that he leads a modern, reforming free-enterprise party rather than one with an excessively romantic view of its democratic socialist past. Some early signs are discouraging — confusion on tuition fees, opportunism on cuts. And Mr Miliband does not have long to prove himself."
• James Forsyth at Coffee House: Ed Miliband needs to make some noise.
• In The Observer Andrew Rawnsley quotes "One member of the shadow cabinet wryly [referring] to himself as a spokesman for "the third most interesting party in Britain"." Rawnsley continues: "he needs to start making his presence felt or run the risk that he instead becomes stamped with other labels which can be just as corrosive, labels like "Vague Ed" or "Unready Eddie"."

Blairites join David Miliband in rejecting their leader's call to serve...

• Mark Seddon in the Mail on Sunday: "Unapologetic former Blairite Ministers Hazel Blears, Pat McFadden and Ben Bradshaw had refused to serve in Mr Miliband’s Shadow Cabinet."

Rebellious Labour backbenchers...

• Harriet Harman took a very firm line with Phil Woolas but backbench MPs raged at her in a meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party and have been donating to his judicial appeal.

Rebellious Left-wing supporters...

• Mehdi Hasan: Where is the radical candidate who came from behind to win the crown?
• Jim Pickard of the FT on why Ed Miliband is upsetting his Left-wing base: "Miliband’s caution reminds me of Tuesday last week when Labour’s new leader didn’t attend the TUC rally (which he had promised to go on), with aides saying it wasn’t a rally. You can understand his determination to shed the Red Ed tag and try to position Labour as close to the centre ground as possible. But those who heard him during scores of summer hustings may now be confused about what he does stand for."

An Anti-Business/ Anti-Donor attitude that will harm party fundraising...

• "Ed Miliband has been warned he is taking a multimillion-pound gamble with Labour’s finances after blocking peerages for three donors who have helped to keep the party afloat... Labour, which is up to £12 million in debt and had to fight the general election on a shoestring budget, is already finding it harder to prise open the wallets of some longstanding benefactors. Lord Sainsbury of Turville, who has given the party more than £12 million over the past five years, is known to have been upset by David Miliband’s defeat in the leadership contest. Lakshmi Mittal, the steel tycoon who has donated £5 million since 2005, is also said to be concerned about Labour’s attitude to business." - Times (£)
• Without the support of businesses Ed Miliband will be increasingly dependent upon trade unions like Len McCluskey, elected yesterday as the ultra-left leader of Unite. 

A declining press operation...

• James Forsyth in The Spectator: "Certainly Ed Miliband has not played the media as well as Cameron did in the months after his election as Tory leader. Tory strategists couldn’t believe that Ed Miliband released the photos of him and his partner and their new baby on the same Wednesday afternoon that students were violently besieging Millbank. However cute the photos, they were never going to knock the rioters off the front pages. Back in the day, the Labour spin machine would have known this. The photos would have been released on Thursday."

Voices from Labour's past that snipe at Ed Miliband...

• The Mail on Sunday on Mandelson V Ed Miliband (Part 94): "Peter Mandelson has added to the growing pressure on Ed Miliband, claiming the Labour leader had insulted him by saying he should be ‘packed off to an old folk’s home’. In a new war of words between the two men, Lord Mandelson suggested Mr Miliband was devious and had secretly plotted against Tony Blair. And he contemptuously dismissed him, saying he had ‘never seriously thought of him’ as a leader."
• Asked about Peter Mandelson, Ed Balls told Andrew Marr: "The papers are full of the twitching of old corpses of the past.” Strewth!