As figures reveal Lib Dem membership has shrunk by 20% we also learn that Cable speaks regularly with Ed Miliband

By Tim Montgomerie
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One of the more remarkable things about the Lib/Con Coalition is the absence of disunity on the central project of deficit reduction. I would also have predicted that a Lib Dem backbencher might have defected by now. Despite real tensions on the government benches it hasn't happened. What is happening, however, is a big fall in Lib Dem membership as party activists give up on Nick Clegg and his cohabitation with the Conservatives.

One big sign came before the recent local elections when the Lib Dems struggled to field candidates in crucial wards. Now the Independent on Sunday is reporting that party membership has fallen by 20% since the formation of the Coalition:

• Membership is falling fastest in seats held by Government ministers - offering an interesting counterpoint to the general view that the Lib Dem vote is holding up better in seats that they currently hold.
• The minister who lost most members was Sarah Teather in Brent. 42% of her members fell away.
• Membership is also down particularly sharply in Scotland where the drop equals 26%.
• The Lib Dem student movement is half the size it was before Nick Clegg's spectacular U-turn on tuition fees.

The Left of the Liberal Democrats may be looking for an escape route via Labour. The Sunday Telegraph reports that a variety of Nick Clegg's colleagues are in regular contact with aides to Ed Miliband and the Labour leader himself. "One Labour source revealed Mr Cable and Mr Miliband spoke regularly by telephone". Other communicants include Ming Campbell, Tim Farron, Simon Hughes and serial trouble-maker Lord (Matthew) Oakeshott.

Warning: this blog contains an X-rated image

By Tim Montgomerie
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I wrote a long blog yesterday on the factors that are leading David Cameron to worry that another hung parliament is very possible and that he may need a continuing relationship with Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats after the next election.

I got a call from one Tory minister who asked me a simple question. What if Nick Clegg loses his seat? Not an impossible scenario. The Deputy Leader of the Lib Dems is currently Simon Hughes. If the left-leaning MP for Bermondsey and Old Southwark was in charge of hung parliament negotiations and Labour are close to being the largest party we all know what is likely...

Moral of this story: We really need to strain every sinew to win a majority at the next election.

Lib Dem MEP says it will serve City right if UK's banks suffer from EU veto

By Matthew Barrett
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Below is a selection of prominent Lib Dems' reactions to David Cameron's veto at the European summit this week.

Sharon Bowles, the Lib Dem MEP who chairs the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, has made several strange remarks yesterday and today. In an interview yesterday, she said she wants to take up Irish citizenship, in order to be a citizen of a Eurozone country. This morning she tweeted:

"Media frenzy continues. The UK veto will hit negotiations on financial dossiers hard. The City will suffer. Maybe serves them right."

Chris Huhne moves to top of Yellow B**tards League table

By Matthew Barrett
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It's the conference season, and the annual gathering of Lib Dems gave senior Libs the opportunity to bash the Conservatives, bash the rich, bash government policies, and bash anything else likely to get a smile out of the downtrodden activists in attendance. 

We can review who has moved up or down on the Yellow B**tards League table, compared to our rankings from May.

 

   

Chris Huhne: In his speech to the Liberal Democrat conference Chris Huhne joked that he and Vince Cable competed with each other to be the most unpopular member of the Cabinet in the ConHome members' poll. Huhne undersells himself. He's actually been winning the wooden spoon for some time now. Perhaps it's his constant attacks on Conservative ministers or, this week, the 'Tory Right'? Perhaps it was saying Conservatives wanted to cut the 50p tax rate in order to help "their friends in the City"? Perhaps it's his growth-killing green measures? Perhaps it's the whole speeding controversy.  Perhaps it's the way he's treated his wife? So many questions but we have few doubts: Huhne is now the top of the Yellow B**tards League Table. We imagine he'll be pleased.

Vince Cable: During his speech to the Birmingham conference, Vince Cable said Tories who want to reform maternity rights are "the ideological descendants of people who sent children up chimneys". This attack aimed at Steve Hilton followed a period in which Cable has been hinting he might quit if he didn't get his way on banking reforms. There is a better side to Mr Cable, however, and his speech on Monday warning of tough economic times was a model of truth-telling that George Osborne should consider emulating.

 Tim Farron: Farron is promoted from Division One to the Premier League because of his less-than-subtle positioning for the leadership of the Liberal Democrats. He gave Total Politics magazine a hardly-unequivocal denial of his leadership ambitions: "I'm not pretending that I’m keeping my leadership bid quiet just for the right moment. I’m genuinely not sure." Farron's speech at conference was full of anti-Tory remarks, and Farron attacked the government's response to the riots, saying "we stood up against the witless kneejerk populism of the Tories after the riots". To top off Farron's promotion to the top league, he (like Huhne) even managed to drop in a reference to this very site during his conference speech: "If you listen to Nadine Dorries, ConservativeHome and the Daily Mail, then Nick Clegg is leading the government; but when it comes to the NHS, the Bankers and fair taxation, Nick seems to be leading the opposition too!" Matthew Parris was disgusted by Tim Farron's speech in yesterday's Times (£):

"You can see what Tim Farron’s up to. He’s positioning himself for the break-up of the coalition and a deal with Labour to form a new government: a deal he would seek as party leader. I can guess what you may think: that as a coalition sympathiser I see Mr Farron as a threat. The opposite is true. Before this week I did see the Lib Dem president as formidable. But something in that speech — something cheap, something shameless, something wily, something small, something not thoughtful or brave, something crowd-pleasing in a slightly desperate way — breathed a lack of political stature. At some subliminal level I sense that many in his party smelt it too."

Evan Harris: Harris may have been rejected by the sensible voters of Oxford West and Abingdon but he has not learnt any humility. He's never off the TV or radio complaining about parts of the Coalition's agenda. Nick Clegg might well agree with our top ranking for Mr Harris. The Deputy PM thought he had a deal on NHS reforms but Harris is unhappy with the compromise agreed between the Liberal Democrat and Tory leaderships and is threatening to reopen wounds in the months ahead.

 Simon Hughes: Hughes, the Deputy Leader of the Lib Dems, was in the Premier League last time but we've relegated him from the Big Four. He's been quieter since he was given the job of delivering fairer access to universities, although the bureaucratic system he's creating suggests he can still be a Premier League problem when he puts his mind to it. We expect Lib Dems to be more mean towards Tories on the eve of their conference and Hughes didn't disappoint. In an interview with last weekend's Observer he called the Conservatives ruthless - especially over the AV campaign - and bashed the government for trying to implement "extreme remedies", for trying to cut the 50p tax rate.

Baroness Shirley Williams: Baroness Williams is still a real headache for the Coalition - not least in her alliance with Evan Harris to scupper the already diluted NHS reforms. But she rebuked Chris Huhne and other Lib Dem MPs for their constant attacks on the Conservatives. “We can’t expect an idealistic, lovely friendship," she told Radio 4, "but one doesn’t need to bash the other side with all the abuse you can find.” How grown up!

Lord Oakeshott: He's been a little bit less visible in recent times so we've moved Matthew Oakeshott down a league but he still remains a disruptive influence behind-the-scenes. 10 Downing Street regards everything Oakeshott says publicly as an early warning of what Cable is plotting privately.

 Nick Clegg: Clegg is a tough one to categorise. His bashing of Labour in his big speech was exactly what you'd hope for from a Coalition partner but he's also boasted about his ability to block Conservative policies on Europe, free schools and on the rate of taxation. But we are keeping Clegg in a low league spot because we don't really believe his heart is in the Tory-bashing. Anthony Browne is probably right when he says Clegg's pandering to the Liberal Democrat base is done out of political necessity, rather than genuine conviction.

Andrew George: A rebellious backbencher - although not well-known, he works hard in trying to frustrate Coalition health policy. George led Lib Dem opposition in the Commons to the NHS bill, the Localism Bill, the redistribution of seats legislation, and tuition fees. In more recent times, George challenged the Prime Minister, and the Health Secretary, to debates about the NHS reforms.

Worth a mention: Bob Russell, Paddy Ashdown and Mike Hancock.

Jeremy Browne: Browne, along with David Laws, was wooed by the Conservative leadership prior to last year's election. A free-market, classical liberal, Browne is on board with the deficit reduction programme (indeed, he is apparently very keen on it). He is an opponent of the strategy of putting yellow water between the Lib Dems and the Tories. Unchanged from May.

Danny Alexander: Exceeding all expectations after replacing David Laws and George Osborne's number two, Danny Alexander has been effective at arguing in favour of the deficit reduction strategy.

David Laws: The Conservatives' favourite Liberal Democrat apparently wants to scrap the 50p tax and has said that his party should be the Coalition's motor, not its brake. Let's not forget that Laws is part of the pro-EU, pro-HRA Lib Dem consensus but he's the best of even the Orange Book grouping. Let's hope he returns to government soon.

Steve Webb: Iain Duncan Smith has repeatedly said he couldn't have hoped for a better minister. The secret of Webb's success has been to forget about politics for a season and focus on being an effective minister. His pensions plan may mean he'll become an historic, reforming minister. His sensible comments following the AV referendum result are characteristic of his open-minded approach to Coalition. Unchanged from May. 

Brian Paddick: Paddick is a new entry on the league table because he is the Liberal Democrat mayoral candidate for London in 2012, and will inevitably have to contrast himself with Boris. The good news is that his initial attacks have been on Labour's Ken Livingstone.

Simon Hughes holds his fire over Cameron's Coulson meeting at Chequers, and attacks Blair instead

By Matthew Barrett
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Simon Hughes, the Deputy Leader of the Liberal Democrats, and a distinguished fellow of the Yellow B**tards League, made an interesting appearance on Sky News this morning - interesting because Hughes refused to blame Cameron for meeting Andy Coulson at Chequers: 

"I have to say, I think if you have a loyalty and an obligation to somebody who worked for you and did a good job, then whatever the implication might be, you might want honourably to support them and say "thank you", so I'm not going to be critical of the fact that David Cameron invited Coulson back once Coulson had resigned."

Hughes, in fact, did not just decide not to bash Cameron, he took a shot at Tony Blair:

"I'm much more critical of the fact that under the Blair era we knew, and this will all come out in the pubic inquiry, we knew that Blair flew just before the 1997 election to the other side of the world to meet Murdoch, we know that Tony Blair, three times in the ten days before the Iraq war was declared, was in touch with Rupert Murdoch"

Who's top and bottom of the Yellow B**tards League table?

By Matthew Barrett and Tim Montgomerie 

On Wednesday, we reported that Tory MPs at the 1922 Committee wanted to "get those yellow b**tards", in reference to Liberal Democrats who were criticising Andrew Lansley's NHS reforms, having voted for it before.

In today's Mail on Sunday James Forsyth writes that 10 Downing Street is at the end of its tether in having to deal with the Liberal Democrats. They agree one thing one day and then revisit that agreement the next day. "It is like negotiating with an Italian," reports James, "You think everything has been agreed and shaken on, only for the other side to start demanding concessions before the deal goes ahead."

So, who are the real troublemakers on the Liberal Democrat side of the Coalition? Here's a rough guide...

 

Vince Cable: Cable's time in office, as the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills, has not been a happy one - for him or his Cabinet colleagues. He threatened to abstain on his own tuition fees policy, admitted he thought about resigning over his BSkyB gaffe, and also implied he might prefer life outside government. He called David Cameron's modest speech on immigration "very unwise" and, as Paul Goodman pointed out last week, business doesn't think much of him.  As Charles Moore pointed out last week in a devastating column the tuition fees policy has become a terrible dog's breakfast: students oppose the debt, the Treasury isn't going to save much money and universities won't get the scale of resources they need to deliver world class courses. Well done Vince.

Chris Huhne: After numerous instances of criticising Conservatives over the AV referendum, Huhne is certainly one of the Premier League's Big Four. He has threatened to sue his Coalition partners and likened the first Muslim member of Britain's Cabinet to Goebbels. His climate change plan, although diluted by the Chancellor, threatens to wreck Britain's economic recovery, as Nigel Lawson warned yesterday. If he survives his formidable intellectual skills will mean his environmental policies could become a massive political problem for Cameron but his immediate future rests in the hands of the Essex police.

Simon Hughes: Hughes, the deputy leader of the Lib Dems, frustrated the Coalition on tuition fees - by not committing to voting for, or against the policy, then criticising the plans, then abstaining on the vote, then agreeing to be a "social mobility tsar", and then criticising the policy some more. Outside of tuition fees, Hughes led rebellions against the rise in VAT and housing benefit cuts, and said Baroness Warsi was "inventing facts" during the AV referendum. Most recently, Hughes has opposed the NHS bill (that he voted for), and said it needed "fundamental" change for him to vote for it again.

Lord Oakeshott: He's not the highest profile Yellow B**tard but certainly, behind-the-scenes, one of the most dangerous. Personally close to Cable and tactically close to Huhne, Oakeshott attacked George Osborne as "incompetent" when he resigned as a Lib Dem Treasury spokesman earlier this year. "He hates Tories," said one ConHome source and is stirring up opposition in the upper house to the Coalition's NHS and police commissioner plans.

Cameron and Clegg appoint Simon Hughes to sell university policy

Tim Montgomerie

The Liberal Democrats' Deputy Leader, Simon Hughes, has been appointed as the Coalition's "Advocate for Access to Education”.

It's an unpaid post but is recognition by Downing Street that the tuition fees policy has not yet been effectively communicated.

The Prime Minister has asked Mr Hughes to encourage students from poorer backgrounds to apply for university. A Lib Dem source told The Independent:

"I think there is recognition that we have not got our message across on this. It has been drowned out by brick-throwing students and scare-mongering stories about upfront fees. This is something we need to address before students are put off from applying to university on false grounds."

The Guardian interprets the appointment as more than a communications initiative. Patrick Wintour suggests that the Coalition has "opened the door to reshaping its plans to help disadvantaged children enter higher education". Mr Hughes will apparently help decide what replaces the Educational Maintenance Allowance and also the configuration of the £150 million National Scholarship Fund.

The appointment - although due to last just six months - is also an attempt to bring another Lib Dem into the big Cameron/ Clegg tent. Hughes is on the Left of his party and was the architect of the failed suggestion that all Lib Dem MPs abstain on tuition fees. His party ended up voting all three ways although Hughes, himself, abstained.

On Question Time last month Mr Hughes was confronted by an angry student who demanded to know why, during May's Coalition negotiations, AV was non-negotiable for Lib Dems but they were willing to u-turn on fees.

Simon Hughes portrays Coalition as a loveless marriage, and says LibDems must reassert equi-distance between Tories and Labour

By Tim Montgomerie

Mr Hughes, the Liberal Democrats' Deputy Leader, is hardly off the media these days defining the limits to Lib/Con co-operation.

Today he has ruled out a non-aggression pact between his party and the Conservatives at the next election.

He certainly has his party's constitution on his side. He notes that the LibDem constitution requires the party to fight every seat and 50% of members would have to vote to change that. Polling by Populus (for Lord Ashcroft) has, however, suggested that LibDem MPs could face wipeout in Tory/LD marginals if they don't have a non-aggression pact with the Conservatives in these seats. It's easily possible that 50% of members could vote to ensure the survival of their party in southern England but the voting process might prove, in itself, to be too divisive.

Conservative Chairman Sayeeda Warsi has refused to rule out electoral co-operation and a recent ConHome poll of Tory members found that 35% were wholly opposed to a limited non-aggression pact in Lib/Con marginals. 65% were supportive or open to the possibility.

For me, however, the most interesting statement by Simon Hughes in his interview with Sky News came with these words:

“We should have no preference at the next election between the Tories and Labour and other parties."

I can't believe that Nick Clegg agrees. Unless the LibDems leave the Coalition before the end of the fixed-term parliament they will go into the election having to defend the government's record. The Huhne-Warsi press conference earlier this week was a first attempt by the Coalition leadership to forge a joint anti-Labour strategy.

But, as Hughes made clear to the BBC, he sees the Coalition as a loveless business arrangement rather than a marriage. Towards the end of the parliament this suggests he will be arguing for a LibDem manifesto that is radically distinctive.

Hughes may want equi-distance between his and the other two main parties but the Labour leader will believe he has the easier argument in saying that Nick Clegg will keep the Tories in power if people vote for his candidates.

> In addition, watch Simon Hughes welcome Alan Milburn's appointment to advise Coalition on social mobility