Bad polling news for Labour is as important as the good news for the Conservatives

By Mark Wallace
Follow Mark on Twitter.

A few weeks ago, a feeling was developing that the Conservative leadership had a good thing going. Labour were in a mess over welfare, struggling to define a line at all, still less to push a popular message. Then Woolwich happened, the news agenda understandably shifted and the momentum was lost.

Looking at polls in the last few days, it seems like that mojo may be back. ICM's polling for the Sunday Telegraph finds that 64% support Osborne's benefits cap, and a massive 87% agree with the Chancellor that benefits should be cut for migrants who refuse to learn English. The longer-term picture looks positive, too - Ipsos MORI's intergenerational research shows the young are far more enthusiastic about entrepreneurship and self-reliance, while they are increasingly sceptical of high taxes and generous benefits. As I wrote recently, they are also voting Conservative in greater numbers.

But the good polling news is not just that the Conservatives are doing fairly well - it's that Labour are doing spectacularly badly.

35 and minus 23: two numbers that are on Labour’s collective mind today

By Peter Hoskin
_{Follow Peter on Twitter}

And the number of the day is 35. That, according to Dan Hodges and Rachel Sylvester (£), is that percentage of the vote that some members of Team Miliband are shooting for at the next election. Apparently, this “35 per cent strategy” involves securing the 29 per cent of voters who supported Labour at the last election, with a further 6 percentage points carved off the Lib Dems – and they think it should be enough for victory.

It all sounds pretty plausible, and not just because Hodges and Sylvester are a well-sourced pair. As the New Statesman’s George Eaton has pointed out, 35 per cent was enough to deliver victory to Labour in 2005 – and that was with the Lib Dems on 22 per cent, and without a split vote on the right. Looking at the current electoral landscape, it’s little wonder if some Labour advisers believe they can win it without dominating it.

Five big doubts that voters have about Labour...

By Tim Montgomerie
Follow Tim on Twitter

Over on ToryDiary I list ten key findings from Lord Ashcroft's latest poll of more than 8,000 voters.

On today's Comment pages Lord Ashcroft overviews the overall message of his poll - focusing on the strategic choice facing Ed Miliband - should he choose to be a hawk or a dove on the central economic issue of our time - the deficit.

In this third blogpost on the survey I'm zeroing in on the big weaknesses that the poll reveals about Labour's electoral position and what the Tory operation would be wisest to target...

A LabourList poll suggests a steep decline in popularity for Ed Miliband over strikes

By Joseph Willits 
Follow Joseph on Twitter

Last week we reported some bad news for Ed Miliband, that according to a poll in the Sun, only 1 in 5 Labour voters would back him. Today signals further disappointment for the Labour leader with a poll on LabourList blaming Miliband's handling of public sector pensions strikes on 30th November for a steep decline in popularity.

• Only 26% of those polled consider Ed Miliband to be doing a 'good' or 'excellent' job as leader of the Labour party, compared to 40% in October, and 59% at his peak in July.
• The biggest percentage grouping of 41% felt Miliband's performance was 'poor' or 'very poor'.
• 33% would describe Miliband as 'average'.
• Although 83% of LabourList readers backed the strikes, 67% believed Miliband handled the situation badly. 
• Tom Watson, Yvette Cooper, and Andy Burnham were the three most popular in the Shadow Cabinet.

The poll was conducted between Monday 5th and Friday 9th December. 604 people voted. LabourList's Mark Ferguson wrote:

"It remains to be seen whether Miliband can bounce back in the New Year, or whether the damage done is permanent".

Only 1 in 5 Labour voters would back Ed Miliband, according to a poll in The Sun

By Joseph Willits 
Follow Joseph on Twitter

Today's Sun carries a YouGov poll which is bad news for the Labour party generally - and Ed Miliband personally.

• The poll suggests that only 1 in 5 Labour voters believe that Miliband is doing a good enough job.

• 51% of Labour voters saying that Miliband could do better.

• 40% of these have given Miliband a year's ultimatum to improve.

• A further 26% have given him up to 2 years to up his game.

• Only 17% would allow Ed Miliband up until the next election in 2015, time to improve.

Only yesterday it was reported that Miliband's picture was absent from Labour's election literature for December 15th's Feltham and Heston byelection. 

In the week of the Autumn Statement, Ed Balls is under attack from business groups, economists, his own party, and the public

By Matthew Barrett
Follow Matthew on Twitter.

In the week of George Osborne's Autumn Statement, you might think the Shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls, would be able to score the open goals and publicity that Opposition politicians can usually manage. 

Instead, Ed Balls and his economic plans are under attack from all sides. From the left, the Shadow Cabinet and Labour insiders are trying to set the Labour Party on a different economic course. Economists and business groups continue to support the government and reject Balls' alternative economic plans. The public still blames Labour for the economic crisis. 

Labour blogger Dan Hodges tweeted this morning: "Just spoke to a shadow cabinet member; "Ed Ball's strategy is hurting but it isn't working"." Shortly after that tweet, he added: "The shadow cabinet's concern about Labour's economic stance is about to become a story".

One quarter of voters look at a photo of Ed Miliband and think it's David Miliband...

By Tim Montgomerie
Follow Tim on Twitter.

A photograph of one of the Miliband brothers.

Some light relief...

23% of people see a photo of Ed Miliband and think it's David Miliband and 26% of people think David Miliband is Ed Miliband.

33% of voters correctly recognise Yvette Cooper as Yvette Cooper but 20% think she's Harriet Harman.

30% of people correctly recognise Douglas Alexander as Douglas Alexander but just as many think he's Andy Burnham.

Only 25% of voters can correctly identify Jim Murphy. More voters (30%) identify him as Liam Byrne.

Ed Balls is the most recognisable member of the top Labour team. 68% correctly identify him. Only 64% correctly identify the Labour leader.

And in evidence that the Conservatives are serious about 'knowing the enemy', Conservative voters are more likely to correctly identify the Labour shadow cabinet than Labour voters.

The results come from a ComRes poll of more than 2,000 voters for The Independent.

The Sunday papers bring new poll headaches for Ed Miliband as his ratings hit a new low

By Jonathan Isaby
^{Follow Jonathan on Twitter}

Ed Miliband's aides may want to stop their boss from catching sight of the Sunday Mirror or Independent on Sunday tomorrow, for they contain depressing news for him.

The latest ComRes opinion poll commissioned for the two papers shows that his ratings are sinking - primarily because those who were giving him the benefit of the doubt by previously saying they didn't know whether he was turning out to be a good Labour leader are turning against him, the more they see of him.

In December last year, 17% of the public agreed he was turning out to be a good leader, 32% disagreed and 50% said they didn't know.

Six months later and 18% say he is a good leader, but the "don't knows" have reduced by 13 percentage points to 37% and - guess what? - the number of those disagreeing has increased by 13 percentage points to 45%.

The full results over recent months are in the table below and, significantly, whilst those agreeing has fluctuated a little, you will see that the number of people disagreeing that he is turning out to be a good leader has risen incrementally over time.

Even among Labour voters, only 41% agree with the statement, with 25% disagreeing and 34% saying they don't know.

As to whether "The Labour Party is unelectable as the party of government as long as Ed Miliband is its leader", 33% of the general public agree, 28% disagree and 39% do not know. Among Labour voters alone, 17% agree with the statement (52% disagree).

The second piece of bad news is that again Labour has lost its lead with ComRes when it comes to voting intention, finding itself level pegging with the Conservatives.

The latest numbers are:

• Conservatives - 37% (-1)
• Labour - 37% (-2)
• Lib Dems - 11% (-)
• Others - 15% (+3)

Change figures are a comparison with the equivalent mid-May ComRes poll. ComRes interviewed 2,008 people online on Wednesday and Thursday.

> Click here to listen to Tim Montgomerie discuss with former Tory leader Lord Howard of Lympne the challenges facing Ed Miliband on today's Week in Westminster on Radio 4.

IPPR accused of using push polling to produce bogus results in poll on Alternative Vote

By Jonathan Isaby

During the course of the AV referendum campaign over the last couple of months, numerous supporters of the Yes campaign have variously claimed that polls which give a cursory explanation of the system before asking the voter whether they support AV - which have generally shown larger numbers opposing the change - are a "complete misrepresentation", "loaded" or "flawed".

So what's this?

The IPPR think tank - which as recently as eleven months ago still believed that "AV is not the answer" - has commissioned a YouGov poll of its own, claiming there is a 12-point lead for the Yes campaign just a day after the regular YouGov poll found a 7-point lead for the No campaign.

And is the IPPR-commissioned survey a straightforward poll asking a straightforward question?

It's anything but. In the IPPR's own words, it gave participants "the chance to take part in a mock AV ballot, using their alternative preferences" and then "asked people a number of detailed questions about their understanding of electoral systems and their concerns about the strengths and weaknesses of these systems".

Mark Gettleson of PoliticsHome has lifted the lid on what was involved.

The public are divided as to whether ditching Brown would help Labour - but the vast majority agree there is no obvious successor anyway

That's according to the findings of a ComRes poll for the BBC's Daily Politics programme. The pollster asked the following questions of 1,003 adults between 6th and 7th January:

"The Labour Party would have greater appeal with voters if Gordon Brown stood aside to allow someone else to lead the Party at the next election"

Agree - 50%
Disagree - 42%
Don't know - 7%

"If Gordon Brown were to resign there are no obvious more popular candidates to be leader of the Labour Party"

Agree - 69%
Disagree - 23%
Don't know - 8%

Which of these parties do you think is the most divided?

Conservative - 17%
Labour - 60%
Lib Dem - 10%
Other/none - 12%

In reference to that last question, I hardly need remind readers of the old adage: "divided parties don't win elections"...

Jonathan Isaby