The Lib Dem leadership race has started

By Tim Montgomerie
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In last Monday's Times (£) I wondered if electorates would start to turn to politicians with a little more grey hair (or a little less hair generally) in these tricky times:

"Americans, like voters in other parts of the world, are wondering if today’s politicians are somehow smaller than those of a generation ago. They are certainly younger. Obama was 22 years younger than Reagan when each first became president. Margaret Thatcher was ten years older than David Cameron when both began their premierships. Both of today’s transatlantic leaders have 20 years’ less life experience than China’s President. Previous leaders used those 10-20 extra years to run a business, command men in uniform or raise a family. I don’t think we look back at previous leaders through rose-tinted spectacles. We see them as better performers because they were better prepared. In benign times politicians could get away with simply looking and sounding the part. Today, when the challenges are so great, we are ruled by leaders who have spent their whole shortish lives doing little else other than preparing press releases, speeches and attack strategies."

Vince Cable seems to have taken this to heart. He didn't stand for the Lib Dem leadership when Ming Campbell stood down because he thought he was too old. No longer. He told the FT that “the worship of youth has diminished — perhaps generally — in recent years” and voters have a renewed respect for “people who have had some insight into what is going on”. Some polling today suggests that he might be correct. Asked by YouGov who should replace George Osborne as Chancellor if he was reshuffled and the Lib Dem Business Secretary is voters' top choice. 22% choose Mr Cable versus 16% choosing William Hague and 9% Clarke. The numbers don't just suggest that Mr Cable has overcome the age issue they suggest he's quite popular too.

As figures reveal Lib Dem membership has shrunk by 20% we also learn that Cable speaks regularly with Ed Miliband

By Tim Montgomerie
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One of the more remarkable things about the Lib/Con Coalition is the absence of disunity on the central project of deficit reduction. I would also have predicted that a Lib Dem backbencher might have defected by now. Despite real tensions on the government benches it hasn't happened. What is happening, however, is a big fall in Lib Dem membership as party activists give up on Nick Clegg and his cohabitation with the Conservatives.

One big sign came before the recent local elections when the Lib Dems struggled to field candidates in crucial wards. Now the Independent on Sunday is reporting that party membership has fallen by 20% since the formation of the Coalition:

• Membership is falling fastest in seats held by Government ministers - offering an interesting counterpoint to the general view that the Lib Dem vote is holding up better in seats that they currently hold.
• The minister who lost most members was Sarah Teather in Brent. 42% of her members fell away.
• Membership is also down particularly sharply in Scotland where the drop equals 26%.
• The Lib Dem student movement is half the size it was before Nick Clegg's spectacular U-turn on tuition fees.

The Left of the Liberal Democrats may be looking for an escape route via Labour. The Sunday Telegraph reports that a variety of Nick Clegg's colleagues are in regular contact with aides to Ed Miliband and the Labour leader himself. "One Labour source revealed Mr Cable and Mr Miliband spoke regularly by telephone". Other communicants include Ming Campbell, Tim Farron, Simon Hughes and serial trouble-maker Lord (Matthew) Oakeshott.

Lembit Opik calls for Clegg to stay as Deputy PM... but for a new Lib Dem leader to be elected

By Tim Montgomerie
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I know it's a Lembit Opik idea but just because of that it doesn't deserve to be dismissed out of hand. The defeated MP believes that Nick Clegg should continue as Deputy Prime Minister but should stand aside as Lib Dem leader - allowing a successor to begin the task of winning back the left-wing voters that the party has lost to Labour.

I'm quite keen on the idea because I proposed it myself! This is what I wrote more than one year ago:

"My hunch is that the "Liar Clegg" thing is now stuck in the public imagination. He'll be a huge handicap for his party if he is the leader at the next election but he should stay until 2014 (partly because he can hope things will change) but also because, to change leader now, would mean his successor will get the blame for the many difficult decisions to come. A gracious resignation speech as party leader, twelve or so months before the next election, will revive his own reputation somewhat (resignation speeches always do) but allow his party to choose a leader who isn't connected in the public mind with broken promises and a close relationship with the Conservatives. He could stay as Deputy PM until polling day, again allowing his successor some distance from the government."

The key thing is when Clegg does step aside. Too early and the Lib Dems will become too detached from the Coalition's mission. Too late and the new Lib Dem leader will struggle to establish a post-Clegg identity.

Tim Farron's proposal for permanent coalition-negotiating teams will shift the Lib Dems to the left

By Matthew Barrett
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David Singleton at PoliticsHome reports an interesting development: The Lib Dems' President, Tim Farron, has drawn up plans to establish a "reference group" made up of grassroots party members, which would oversee coalition negotiations if the 2015 election were to result in another inconclusive result. The proposal is set to be debated at the Lib Dems' spring conference in Newcastle - and if approved, the proposal would be permanently added to the party's constitution. 

Under the proposal, when a Lib Dem leader appoints a negotiating team (which must now be selected "with due regard to diversity"), the team would have to report to a "reference group", which will be appointed jointly by the party's policy committee and executive - containing elected activists - and the parliamentary party. The negotiating team will then give "regard to their respective views".

Warning: this blog contains an X-rated image

By Tim Montgomerie
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I wrote a long blog yesterday on the factors that are leading David Cameron to worry that another hung parliament is very possible and that he may need a continuing relationship with Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats after the next election.

I got a call from one Tory minister who asked me a simple question. What if Nick Clegg loses his seat? Not an impossible scenario. The Deputy Leader of the Lib Dems is currently Simon Hughes. If the left-leaning MP for Bermondsey and Old Southwark was in charge of hung parliament negotiations and Labour are close to being the largest party we all know what is likely...

Moral of this story: We really need to strain every sinew to win a majority at the next election.

Lib Dem MEP says it will serve City right if UK's banks suffer from EU veto

By Matthew Barrett
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Below is a selection of prominent Lib Dems' reactions to David Cameron's veto at the European summit this week.

Sharon Bowles, the Lib Dem MEP who chairs the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, has made several strange remarks yesterday and today. In an interview yesterday, she said she wants to take up Irish citizenship, in order to be a citizen of a Eurozone country. This morning she tweeted:

"Media frenzy continues. The UK veto will hit negotiations on financial dossiers hard. The City will suffer. Maybe serves them right."

Chris Huhne moves to top of Yellow B**tards League table

By Matthew Barrett
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It's the conference season, and the annual gathering of Lib Dems gave senior Libs the opportunity to bash the Conservatives, bash the rich, bash government policies, and bash anything else likely to get a smile out of the downtrodden activists in attendance. 

We can review who has moved up or down on the Yellow B**tards League table, compared to our rankings from May.

 

   

Chris Huhne: In his speech to the Liberal Democrat conference Chris Huhne joked that he and Vince Cable competed with each other to be the most unpopular member of the Cabinet in the ConHome members' poll. Huhne undersells himself. He's actually been winning the wooden spoon for some time now. Perhaps it's his constant attacks on Conservative ministers or, this week, the 'Tory Right'? Perhaps it was saying Conservatives wanted to cut the 50p tax rate in order to help "their friends in the City"? Perhaps it's his growth-killing green measures? Perhaps it's the whole speeding controversy.  Perhaps it's the way he's treated his wife? So many questions but we have few doubts: Huhne is now the top of the Yellow B**tards League Table. We imagine he'll be pleased.

Vince Cable: During his speech to the Birmingham conference, Vince Cable said Tories who want to reform maternity rights are "the ideological descendants of people who sent children up chimneys". This attack aimed at Steve Hilton followed a period in which Cable has been hinting he might quit if he didn't get his way on banking reforms. There is a better side to Mr Cable, however, and his speech on Monday warning of tough economic times was a model of truth-telling that George Osborne should consider emulating.

 Tim Farron: Farron is promoted from Division One to the Premier League because of his less-than-subtle positioning for the leadership of the Liberal Democrats. He gave Total Politics magazine a hardly-unequivocal denial of his leadership ambitions: "I'm not pretending that I’m keeping my leadership bid quiet just for the right moment. I’m genuinely not sure." Farron's speech at conference was full of anti-Tory remarks, and Farron attacked the government's response to the riots, saying "we stood up against the witless kneejerk populism of the Tories after the riots". To top off Farron's promotion to the top league, he (like Huhne) even managed to drop in a reference to this very site during his conference speech: "If you listen to Nadine Dorries, ConservativeHome and the Daily Mail, then Nick Clegg is leading the government; but when it comes to the NHS, the Bankers and fair taxation, Nick seems to be leading the opposition too!" Matthew Parris was disgusted by Tim Farron's speech in yesterday's Times (£):

"You can see what Tim Farron’s up to. He’s positioning himself for the break-up of the coalition and a deal with Labour to form a new government: a deal he would seek as party leader. I can guess what you may think: that as a coalition sympathiser I see Mr Farron as a threat. The opposite is true. Before this week I did see the Lib Dem president as formidable. But something in that speech — something cheap, something shameless, something wily, something small, something not thoughtful or brave, something crowd-pleasing in a slightly desperate way — breathed a lack of political stature. At some subliminal level I sense that many in his party smelt it too."

Evan Harris: Harris may have been rejected by the sensible voters of Oxford West and Abingdon but he has not learnt any humility. He's never off the TV or radio complaining about parts of the Coalition's agenda. Nick Clegg might well agree with our top ranking for Mr Harris. The Deputy PM thought he had a deal on NHS reforms but Harris is unhappy with the compromise agreed between the Liberal Democrat and Tory leaderships and is threatening to reopen wounds in the months ahead.

 Simon Hughes: Hughes, the Deputy Leader of the Lib Dems, was in the Premier League last time but we've relegated him from the Big Four. He's been quieter since he was given the job of delivering fairer access to universities, although the bureaucratic system he's creating suggests he can still be a Premier League problem when he puts his mind to it. We expect Lib Dems to be more mean towards Tories on the eve of their conference and Hughes didn't disappoint. In an interview with last weekend's Observer he called the Conservatives ruthless - especially over the AV campaign - and bashed the government for trying to implement "extreme remedies", for trying to cut the 50p tax rate.

Baroness Shirley Williams: Baroness Williams is still a real headache for the Coalition - not least in her alliance with Evan Harris to scupper the already diluted NHS reforms. But she rebuked Chris Huhne and other Lib Dem MPs for their constant attacks on the Conservatives. “We can’t expect an idealistic, lovely friendship," she told Radio 4, "but one doesn’t need to bash the other side with all the abuse you can find.” How grown up!

Lord Oakeshott: He's been a little bit less visible in recent times so we've moved Matthew Oakeshott down a league but he still remains a disruptive influence behind-the-scenes. 10 Downing Street regards everything Oakeshott says publicly as an early warning of what Cable is plotting privately.

 Nick Clegg: Clegg is a tough one to categorise. His bashing of Labour in his big speech was exactly what you'd hope for from a Coalition partner but he's also boasted about his ability to block Conservative policies on Europe, free schools and on the rate of taxation. But we are keeping Clegg in a low league spot because we don't really believe his heart is in the Tory-bashing. Anthony Browne is probably right when he says Clegg's pandering to the Liberal Democrat base is done out of political necessity, rather than genuine conviction.

Andrew George: A rebellious backbencher - although not well-known, he works hard in trying to frustrate Coalition health policy. George led Lib Dem opposition in the Commons to the NHS bill, the Localism Bill, the redistribution of seats legislation, and tuition fees. In more recent times, George challenged the Prime Minister, and the Health Secretary, to debates about the NHS reforms.

Worth a mention: Bob Russell, Paddy Ashdown and Mike Hancock.

Jeremy Browne: Browne, along with David Laws, was wooed by the Conservative leadership prior to last year's election. A free-market, classical liberal, Browne is on board with the deficit reduction programme (indeed, he is apparently very keen on it). He is an opponent of the strategy of putting yellow water between the Lib Dems and the Tories. Unchanged from May.

Danny Alexander: Exceeding all expectations after replacing David Laws and George Osborne's number two, Danny Alexander has been effective at arguing in favour of the deficit reduction strategy.

David Laws: The Conservatives' favourite Liberal Democrat apparently wants to scrap the 50p tax and has said that his party should be the Coalition's motor, not its brake. Let's not forget that Laws is part of the pro-EU, pro-HRA Lib Dem consensus but he's the best of even the Orange Book grouping. Let's hope he returns to government soon.

Steve Webb: Iain Duncan Smith has repeatedly said he couldn't have hoped for a better minister. The secret of Webb's success has been to forget about politics for a season and focus on being an effective minister. His pensions plan may mean he'll become an historic, reforming minister. His sensible comments following the AV referendum result are characteristic of his open-minded approach to Coalition. Unchanged from May. 

Brian Paddick: Paddick is a new entry on the league table because he is the Liberal Democrat mayoral candidate for London in 2012, and will inevitably have to contrast himself with Boris. The good news is that his initial attacks have been on Labour's Ken Livingstone.

Huhne has already compared us to Goebbels. Now we're as bad as Sarah Palin.

By Tim Montgomerie
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Chris Huhne will become the latest Liberal Democrat to attack the Conservatives today.

In the last 48 hours Simon Hughes give an interview in which he said the Liberal Democrats had stopped the "ruthless" Tories doing extreme things.

Tim Farron, the party's president, said the Tories had tainted his party's brand, were guilty of wickedness and had been "witless" and "reactionary" after the riots.

Vince Cable, meanwhile, likened Steve Hilton to a Victorian who sent children up chimneys. 

Not to be outdone the Energy Secretary will speed to the front of the pack and compare the Tory Right to Sarah Palin and the Tea Party.

This is not as amusing as his suggestion (£), on Saturday, that the Tories had been wrong, wrong and wrong again on Europe. Nice try Chris but we remember the praise you showered on the €uro. Remember when you said that "the euro is living up to the highest expectations of the economists who advocated it, and Britain is missing out." It really isn't us that's been wrong about Europe.

Former City investor Chris Huhne warns Conservatives against "helping their friends in the City"

By Matthew Barrett
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We made mention of this story concerning the top rate of tax on today's front page, but it's worthy of closer inspection. The Independent reports:

In an interview with Prospect Magazine ahead of the Liberal Democrat conference, Mr Huhne used George Osborne's own mantra that "we are all in this together" to urge the Chancellor to keep the rate.

"If the cut in the top rate of tax is just a way of helping the Conservatives' friends in the City to put their feet up, then forget it," he said. "They are simply not going to get the votes in the House of Commons."

Mr Huhne, the Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, is a good communicator - a good politician. He knows that his mention of "friends in the City" will convince some segments of his Liberal Democrat base that the Coalition is, economically speaking, a battle between rich Tory bankers, and honest-to-goodness Lib Dem champions of the people. However, a little look into Mr Huhne's previous career reveals Conservatives are not the only ones with "friends in the City". Mr Huhne was interviewed by the Independent in early 2008. Some highlights:

"The father of five, whose wife, Vicky Pryce, is an economist, made a lot of money on the right investments in the City in the 1990s and 10 years ago rated Beijing for the bond markets. Famously, he has a considerable property portfolio – earning him the nickname, during the 2006 leadership contest, of "Nine Homes Huhne". When I ask about the nine houses, for the first time in the interview he cuts me off, sounding impatient. "I don't, I have investments, actually – and not nine, it's seven. I have investments in five homes for rent, which is basically my pension fund from my time in the City""

Lib Dem MP challenges the Prime Minister to a debate on the NHS

By Matthew Barrett
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Andrew George, the Liberal Democrat MP for St Ives, is a rebellious, Coalition-unfriendly backbencher with a particular animosity toward the government on NHS matters. Earlier on in the summer, he launched this attack on the Conservatives:

"I'm afraid we can't trust the Tories with the NHS. They brazenly ignored the Coalition Agreement before the ink was even dry. Tory promises on the NHS should be issued with a 'health warning'" 

Today, he has challenged the Prime Minister to a public debate on the government's planned NHS reforms. 

This is Devon reports:

"The MP is due to hold a public meeting in Penzance on Wednesday to debate the Bill and wants Mr Cameron to attend to thrash out the argument. Mr George said: "We both signed up to a Coalition Agreement which promised to stop the top-down reorganisations of the NHS that had got in the way of patient care. But this is the biggest reorganisation since the NHS was created. Leading clinician bodies have called for the Bill to be scrapped."