A reality check - most LibDem members prefer a post-2015 coalition with Labour to one with the Conservatives

By Paul Goodman
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The Independent's Andrew Grice today fleshes out the claim I put earlier this week of David Cameron preferring a second Coalition with the Liberal Democrats to forming a Conservative Government after 2015.  Grice agrees that the Prime Minister woud prefer the comfortable Commons majority of over 50 which a coalition might give him to the narrow one which he could win alone - leaving him exposed to the 20-or-sp hard core of his Tory MP critics.

However, it's worth remembering that the Liberal Democrat may not be up for coalition with Conservatives for a second time.  Steve Richards claimed in the Independent that they won't, on the same day as my Daily Telegraph article.  Drawing especially on the left-leaning Liberal Democrat peers in the Lords, he argued that Nick Clegg's party won't want to become semi-permanently entangled with the Tories - and suggested that a second coalition wouldn't pass the Liberal Democrat triple lock procedure.

We’d better watch out: Labour and the Lib Dems are discovering more areas of political overlap

By Peter Hoskin
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Here at ConHome, we’ve tended to mention the areas of political overlap between Labour and the Lib Dems. Indeed, Paul Goodman highlighted two such areas – pensioner benefits and the mansion tax – only last week.

But there are now so many examples, with new ones by the day, that a brief list in in order. Here goes:

Lord Adonis surfs the latest wave of LibLabLove

By Peter Hoskin
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For any Kremlinologists among us, Lord Adonis’s new book and his interview with today’s Guardian are sure to be fruitful reads. Not only are they about the Kremlinology of days past: about how the absence of any relationship between Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown helped scupper a LibLab Coalition after the last election. But they are also about the Kremlinology of days to come: about how a LibLab Coalition might be born in 2015.

Among Lord Adonis’s main points is that Labour should, as the Guardian interview puts it, “prepare for coalition, even when [they] are fighting all out for a majority”. He reckons that the mistakes of the last election ought to be corrected, such that Ed Miliband reaches out to the Lib Dems now and dangles the possibility of major Cabinet positions in front of their rapacious eyes.

New Tory leaflet warns that a mansions tax would result in "government snoopers" revaluing your home

By Tim Montgomerie
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Labour is today proposing a motion in favour of a mansions tax. It reads as follows:

"That this House believes that a mansion tax on properties worth over £2m, to fund a tax cut for millions of people on middle and low incomes, should be part of a fair tax system; and calls on the government to bring forward proposals for such a tax at the earliest opportunity."

Ed Miliband had hoped that the Lib Dems might back the motion - a mansions tax was, after all, Vince Cable's policy before it was Ed Balls'. After Cable had appeared to flirt with supporting the Labour motion the Coalition partners have agreed an alternative motion that captures the differing Tory and Lib Dem views on the taxation of high value properties:

"Line 1, leave out from ‘House’ to end and add ‘notes that this coalition government has cut income tax for 25 million people, taking over 2.2 million low income individuals out of income tax altogether, while at the same time increasing taxes on the wealthy, including raising stamp duty on expensive properties and restricting tax reliefs; further notes that both parts of the coalition continue to support tax cuts for people on low and middle incomes; notes that the part of the coalition led by the deputy prime minister also advocates a mansion tax on properties worth more than £2m, as set out in his party’s manifesto, and the part of the coalition led by the prime minister does not advocate a mansion tax; and further notes that the top rate of income tax will be higher under this government than under any year of the previous administration and that the rich are now paying a higher percentage of income tax than at any time under the previous administration, demonstrating that it presided over an unfair tax system where the rich paid less and the poor paid more in tax than now, meaning nobody will trust the opposition’s promises on tax fairness.’."

Conservative HQ meanwhile senses a political opportunity and has unveiled leaflets, warning homeowners that Labour wants to "snoop" around their houses, looking to revalue them and increase the tax burden on them. Coalition etiquette means that the leaflets don't also talk about a Lib Dem homes tax but the posters could easily be adapted to do just that.

What happens if Nick Clegg resigns?

By Peter Hoskin
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I’m not saying that Nick Clegg will resign. Nor that the allegations surrounding Lord Rennard and his party, as dispiriting as they are, necessarily yet warrant a resignation. But the past week has certainly raised the prospect of blood further down the tracks. Mr Clegg’s appearance on LBC radio this morning didn’t create the impression of a man who is in control of his own defence – let alone of his own destiny.   

So what would happen if he did resign? The first point to make is that it would, most likely, fray the ties that bind the Coalition together. Relations between the Tory and Lib Dem leaderships may no longer be all roses and chocolates, as they were at the start of this Government, but Mr Clegg is still – as I’ve written before – a natural ally for David Cameron. He remains one of the most effective advocates of coalition itself, and of this Coalition’s policies. He remains a venomous critic of Labour and of their policies. He is an adhesive helping the whole thing stick together.

When it comes to other senior Lib Dems, something similar could be said of Danny Alexander and David Laws. Norman Lamb, too, is someone who might do easy business with the Tories. And perhaps, to a much lesser extent, there are Ed Davey and Jo Swinson.

Clegg lays into Labour (and Boris lays into Clegg)

By Peter Hoskin
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If you believe that David Cameron’s likeliest route back to No.10 in 2015 is another coalition with the Lib Dems, then then the past fortnight may have been rather perturbing.

Reason being, there are increasing signs of unity between Labour and the Lib Dems. Of course, the two parties appear to be split—between a 10p tax rate and raising the personal allowance—on the best way of lightening the tax burden on low-income workers. But, apart from that, they have basically coalesced in their response to Oliver Letwin’s Royal Charter for press regulation and in their demands for a mansion tax.

And Labour are even trying to smoke out Lib Dem support for their mansion tax proposal with an Opposition Day debate in the Commons, or perhaps even—as the Spectator’s Isabel Hardman reports—an amendment to the Financial Bill after the Budget. This crude politicking has left Vince Cable, for one, cooing and flirting. He won’t be the only Lib Dem who feels some attraction towards Labour at the moment.

As figures reveal Lib Dem membership has shrunk by 20% we also learn that Cable speaks regularly with Ed Miliband

By Tim Montgomerie
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One of the more remarkable things about the Lib/Con Coalition is the absence of disunity on the central project of deficit reduction. I would also have predicted that a Lib Dem backbencher might have defected by now. Despite real tensions on the government benches it hasn't happened. What is happening, however, is a big fall in Lib Dem membership as party activists give up on Nick Clegg and his cohabitation with the Conservatives.

One big sign came before the recent local elections when the Lib Dems struggled to field candidates in crucial wards. Now the Independent on Sunday is reporting that party membership has fallen by 20% since the formation of the Coalition:

• Membership is falling fastest in seats held by Government ministers - offering an interesting counterpoint to the general view that the Lib Dem vote is holding up better in seats that they currently hold.
• The minister who lost most members was Sarah Teather in Brent. 42% of her members fell away.
• Membership is also down particularly sharply in Scotland where the drop equals 26%.
• The Lib Dem student movement is half the size it was before Nick Clegg's spectacular U-turn on tuition fees.

The Left of the Liberal Democrats may be looking for an escape route via Labour. The Sunday Telegraph reports that a variety of Nick Clegg's colleagues are in regular contact with aides to Ed Miliband and the Labour leader himself. "One Labour source revealed Mr Cable and Mr Miliband spoke regularly by telephone". Other communicants include Ming Campbell, Tim Farron, Simon Hughes and serial trouble-maker Lord (Matthew) Oakeshott.

Tim Farron's proposal for permanent coalition-negotiating teams will shift the Lib Dems to the left

By Matthew Barrett
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David Singleton at PoliticsHome reports an interesting development: The Lib Dems' President, Tim Farron, has drawn up plans to establish a "reference group" made up of grassroots party members, which would oversee coalition negotiations if the 2015 election were to result in another inconclusive result. The proposal is set to be debated at the Lib Dems' spring conference in Newcastle - and if approved, the proposal would be permanently added to the party's constitution. 

Under the proposal, when a Lib Dem leader appoints a negotiating team (which must now be selected "with due regard to diversity"), the team would have to report to a "reference group", which will be appointed jointly by the party's policy committee and executive - containing elected activists - and the parliamentary party. The negotiating team will then give "regard to their respective views".

Warning: this blog contains an X-rated image

By Tim Montgomerie
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I wrote a long blog yesterday on the factors that are leading David Cameron to worry that another hung parliament is very possible and that he may need a continuing relationship with Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats after the next election.

I got a call from one Tory minister who asked me a simple question. What if Nick Clegg loses his seat? Not an impossible scenario. The Deputy Leader of the Lib Dems is currently Simon Hughes. If the left-leaning MP for Bermondsey and Old Southwark was in charge of hung parliament negotiations and Labour are close to being the largest party we all know what is likely...

Moral of this story: We really need to strain every sinew to win a majority at the next election.

Chris Huhne moves to top of Yellow B**tards League table

By Matthew Barrett
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It's the conference season, and the annual gathering of Lib Dems gave senior Libs the opportunity to bash the Conservatives, bash the rich, bash government policies, and bash anything else likely to get a smile out of the downtrodden activists in attendance. 

We can review who has moved up or down on the Yellow B**tards League table, compared to our rankings from May.

 

   

Chris Huhne: In his speech to the Liberal Democrat conference Chris Huhne joked that he and Vince Cable competed with each other to be the most unpopular member of the Cabinet in the ConHome members' poll. Huhne undersells himself. He's actually been winning the wooden spoon for some time now. Perhaps it's his constant attacks on Conservative ministers or, this week, the 'Tory Right'? Perhaps it was saying Conservatives wanted to cut the 50p tax rate in order to help "their friends in the City"? Perhaps it's his growth-killing green measures? Perhaps it's the whole speeding controversy.  Perhaps it's the way he's treated his wife? So many questions but we have few doubts: Huhne is now the top of the Yellow B**tards League Table. We imagine he'll be pleased.

Vince Cable: During his speech to the Birmingham conference, Vince Cable said Tories who want to reform maternity rights are "the ideological descendants of people who sent children up chimneys". This attack aimed at Steve Hilton followed a period in which Cable has been hinting he might quit if he didn't get his way on banking reforms. There is a better side to Mr Cable, however, and his speech on Monday warning of tough economic times was a model of truth-telling that George Osborne should consider emulating.

 Tim Farron: Farron is promoted from Division One to the Premier League because of his less-than-subtle positioning for the leadership of the Liberal Democrats. He gave Total Politics magazine a hardly-unequivocal denial of his leadership ambitions: "I'm not pretending that I’m keeping my leadership bid quiet just for the right moment. I’m genuinely not sure." Farron's speech at conference was full of anti-Tory remarks, and Farron attacked the government's response to the riots, saying "we stood up against the witless kneejerk populism of the Tories after the riots". To top off Farron's promotion to the top league, he (like Huhne) even managed to drop in a reference to this very site during his conference speech: "If you listen to Nadine Dorries, ConservativeHome and the Daily Mail, then Nick Clegg is leading the government; but when it comes to the NHS, the Bankers and fair taxation, Nick seems to be leading the opposition too!" Matthew Parris was disgusted by Tim Farron's speech in yesterday's Times (£):

"You can see what Tim Farron’s up to. He’s positioning himself for the break-up of the coalition and a deal with Labour to form a new government: a deal he would seek as party leader. I can guess what you may think: that as a coalition sympathiser I see Mr Farron as a threat. The opposite is true. Before this week I did see the Lib Dem president as formidable. But something in that speech — something cheap, something shameless, something wily, something small, something not thoughtful or brave, something crowd-pleasing in a slightly desperate way — breathed a lack of political stature. At some subliminal level I sense that many in his party smelt it too."

Evan Harris: Harris may have been rejected by the sensible voters of Oxford West and Abingdon but he has not learnt any humility. He's never off the TV or radio complaining about parts of the Coalition's agenda. Nick Clegg might well agree with our top ranking for Mr Harris. The Deputy PM thought he had a deal on NHS reforms but Harris is unhappy with the compromise agreed between the Liberal Democrat and Tory leaderships and is threatening to reopen wounds in the months ahead.

 Simon Hughes: Hughes, the Deputy Leader of the Lib Dems, was in the Premier League last time but we've relegated him from the Big Four. He's been quieter since he was given the job of delivering fairer access to universities, although the bureaucratic system he's creating suggests he can still be a Premier League problem when he puts his mind to it. We expect Lib Dems to be more mean towards Tories on the eve of their conference and Hughes didn't disappoint. In an interview with last weekend's Observer he called the Conservatives ruthless - especially over the AV campaign - and bashed the government for trying to implement "extreme remedies", for trying to cut the 50p tax rate.

Baroness Shirley Williams: Baroness Williams is still a real headache for the Coalition - not least in her alliance with Evan Harris to scupper the already diluted NHS reforms. But she rebuked Chris Huhne and other Lib Dem MPs for their constant attacks on the Conservatives. “We can’t expect an idealistic, lovely friendship," she told Radio 4, "but one doesn’t need to bash the other side with all the abuse you can find.” How grown up!

Lord Oakeshott: He's been a little bit less visible in recent times so we've moved Matthew Oakeshott down a league but he still remains a disruptive influence behind-the-scenes. 10 Downing Street regards everything Oakeshott says publicly as an early warning of what Cable is plotting privately.

 Nick Clegg: Clegg is a tough one to categorise. His bashing of Labour in his big speech was exactly what you'd hope for from a Coalition partner but he's also boasted about his ability to block Conservative policies on Europe, free schools and on the rate of taxation. But we are keeping Clegg in a low league spot because we don't really believe his heart is in the Tory-bashing. Anthony Browne is probably right when he says Clegg's pandering to the Liberal Democrat base is done out of political necessity, rather than genuine conviction.

Andrew George: A rebellious backbencher - although not well-known, he works hard in trying to frustrate Coalition health policy. George led Lib Dem opposition in the Commons to the NHS bill, the Localism Bill, the redistribution of seats legislation, and tuition fees. In more recent times, George challenged the Prime Minister, and the Health Secretary, to debates about the NHS reforms.

Worth a mention: Bob Russell, Paddy Ashdown and Mike Hancock.

Jeremy Browne: Browne, along with David Laws, was wooed by the Conservative leadership prior to last year's election. A free-market, classical liberal, Browne is on board with the deficit reduction programme (indeed, he is apparently very keen on it). He is an opponent of the strategy of putting yellow water between the Lib Dems and the Tories. Unchanged from May.

Danny Alexander: Exceeding all expectations after replacing David Laws and George Osborne's number two, Danny Alexander has been effective at arguing in favour of the deficit reduction strategy.

David Laws: The Conservatives' favourite Liberal Democrat apparently wants to scrap the 50p tax and has said that his party should be the Coalition's motor, not its brake. Let's not forget that Laws is part of the pro-EU, pro-HRA Lib Dem consensus but he's the best of even the Orange Book grouping. Let's hope he returns to government soon.

Steve Webb: Iain Duncan Smith has repeatedly said he couldn't have hoped for a better minister. The secret of Webb's success has been to forget about politics for a season and focus on being an effective minister. His pensions plan may mean he'll become an historic, reforming minister. His sensible comments following the AV referendum result are characteristic of his open-minded approach to Coalition. Unchanged from May. 

Brian Paddick: Paddick is a new entry on the league table because he is the Liberal Democrat mayoral candidate for London in 2012, and will inevitably have to contrast himself with Boris. The good news is that his initial attacks have been on Labour's Ken Livingstone.