Clegg should be more annoyed than Osborne about Vince's Spending Review games

By Mark Wallace
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Most of the focus on the Spending Review has been on the practicalities, rather than on the element of showmanship involved.

It's obviously important to establish properly agreed spending plans for each department through the Coalition's full term in office. But there's also a hefty political element on the Chancellor's part - as can be seen by the chaos it has thrown the two Eds into, unable to decide whether they'll spend and borrow less, spend and borrow more or insist that both are possible.

That political motivation is also true of some of the Cabinet. It is telling that Vince Cable was the last one to agree a deal with the Treasury, and the very public manner in which he did it. James Forsyth of the Spectator was not alone in being briefed that the talks would last late into the night on Tuesday (though in practice they ended late yesterday).

What happens if Nick Clegg resigns?

By Peter Hoskin
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I’m not saying that Nick Clegg will resign. Nor that the allegations surrounding Lord Rennard and his party, as dispiriting as they are, necessarily yet warrant a resignation. But the past week has certainly raised the prospect of blood further down the tracks. Mr Clegg’s appearance on LBC radio this morning didn’t create the impression of a man who is in control of his own defence – let alone of his own destiny.   

So what would happen if he did resign? The first point to make is that it would, most likely, fray the ties that bind the Coalition together. Relations between the Tory and Lib Dem leaderships may no longer be all roses and chocolates, as they were at the start of this Government, but Mr Clegg is still – as I’ve written before – a natural ally for David Cameron. He remains one of the most effective advocates of coalition itself, and of this Coalition’s policies. He remains a venomous critic of Labour and of their policies. He is an adhesive helping the whole thing stick together.

When it comes to other senior Lib Dems, something similar could be said of Danny Alexander and David Laws. Norman Lamb, too, is someone who might do easy business with the Tories. And perhaps, to a much lesser extent, there are Ed Davey and Jo Swinson.

The über-loyalist of the day is Mr Ed Davey

By Tim Montgomerie
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Mr Davey was interviewed on the Sunday Politics a little earlier.

Andrew Neil asked:

"So Ed Davey, do you see yourself leading the Lib Dems one day?"

Chris Huhne's successor as Energy and Climate Change Secretary replied:

"I’m really very supportive of what Nick has been doing. I think he’s the best Leader we ever had and I think he’s going to lead the party not just into the next election but to the one after that."

Better than Gladstone? Better than Lloyd-George? Wow. There's loyalty for you. And as for being Lib Dem leader for ten more years, let's wait for the result from Eastleigh first. The odds are beginning to favour the LibDems but a defeat in Mr Huhne's old seat will un-nerve many of Mr Davey's less enthusiastic colleagues.

YouGov poll for ConservativeHome finds Vince Cable bests Clegg in five of five leadership tests

By Tim Montgomerie
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Earlier this week YouGov completed a large poll of 1,906 representative British voters on behalf of ConservativeHome. We will be publishing most of the results in the run up to the Tory party conference but, on the eve of the Lib Dems' gathering in Brighton, here are the results of questions comparing the standing of Nick Clegg, Vince Cable and the Liberal Democrats in general.

The results in the graph and table are the numbers agreeing that the LDs/ Clegg/ Cable possesses a certain quality minus those who do not.

Although Vince Cable is only in positive territory on two measures - ability to take tough decisions and concern for the vulnerable - he's streets ahead of Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats on all five of the qualities we measured. If the Liberal Democrats are looking for a leader who can increase their electoral competitiveness these are powerful numbers.

Senior Tories increasingly see Clegg as a drag on whole Coalition, not just Lib Dems

By Tim Montgomerie
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At the time of the tuition fees row Mr Clegg insisted that he wouldn't apologise. It's a sign of the weakness of his political position that he now feels the need to do so.

Will it work? I'm doubtful. The Tory leadership is doubtful too. Clegg's ratings are even more dismal than his own party's. An increasing number of leading Tories now think that it might be better if the Lib Dems did choose a new leader. One Cabinet minister told me that Clegg is so toxic that he doesn't just contaminate the Lib Dem brand he contaminates the whole Coalition. "Voters see 'the liar' sat next to the Prime Minister in the Commons and it's not good for them and it's not good for us," I was told.

Cameron thinks Clegg's leadership "very precarious". Are more concessions to Liberal Democrats on the way?

By Tim Montgomerie
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The Conservatives are allegedly Britain's most ruthless party but when it comes to ousting leaders we're amateurs when compared to the Liberal Democrats. Since David Cameron became Tory leader he has seen the yellow party oust Charles Kennedy (because of his drinking problems) and Ming Campbell (because of his age). Will the Lib Dems be making a third change soon?

I've thought for some time that it's a matter of when Clegg will step down/ be replaced. Only a new leader like Vince Cable can start to win back support from the legions of left-leaning voters who have deserted the Liberal Democrats since the party entered government with the Conservatives. Today's Sun reports that David Cameron has concluded that the Deputy PM's position is, indeed, “very precarious”. It follows a poll by the LibDemVoice website which found that 46% of party members wanted Nick Clegg to stand down as leader by the time of the next election (some, like me and Lembit Opik (!), think he could stay as Deputy PM).

The thought of Clegg being ousted terrifies Cameron. He knows that all of the likely alternative Lib Dem leaders would be less supportive of a continuing relationship with the Conservatives. He may feel he needs to do all he can in the coming months to bolster the Deputy PM's standing in his party. It certainly explains why he has quietly accepted Clegg's wounding betrayal on boundary changes. Further appeasement will, of course, will anger Conservative backbenchers but it will also prove my rule of the Coalition that it was always likely to drift Leftwards or break up.

PS On Platform today we publish a terrifying piece from Mark Gettleson. He looks at the extent to which Labour may be winning back voters who defected to the Liberal Democrats since 1997 overm for example, the Iraq war. He looks at the seats where Tory MPs are vulnerable if they continue to succeed in doing so.

The Lib Dem leadership race has started

By Tim Montgomerie
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In last Monday's Times (£) I wondered if electorates would start to turn to politicians with a little more grey hair (or a little less hair generally) in these tricky times:

"Americans, like voters in other parts of the world, are wondering if today’s politicians are somehow smaller than those of a generation ago. They are certainly younger. Obama was 22 years younger than Reagan when each first became president. Margaret Thatcher was ten years older than David Cameron when both began their premierships. Both of today’s transatlantic leaders have 20 years’ less life experience than China’s President. Previous leaders used those 10-20 extra years to run a business, command men in uniform or raise a family. I don’t think we look back at previous leaders through rose-tinted spectacles. We see them as better performers because they were better prepared. In benign times politicians could get away with simply looking and sounding the part. Today, when the challenges are so great, we are ruled by leaders who have spent their whole shortish lives doing little else other than preparing press releases, speeches and attack strategies."

Vince Cable seems to have taken this to heart. He didn't stand for the Lib Dem leadership when Ming Campbell stood down because he thought he was too old. No longer. He told the FT that “the worship of youth has diminished — perhaps generally — in recent years” and voters have a renewed respect for “people who have had some insight into what is going on”. Some polling today suggests that he might be correct. Asked by YouGov who should replace George Osborne as Chancellor if he was reshuffled and the Lib Dem Business Secretary is voters' top choice. 22% choose Mr Cable versus 16% choosing William Hague and 9% Clarke. The numbers don't just suggest that Mr Cable has overcome the age issue they suggest he's quite popular too.