Ed Miliband ought to be having sleepless nights, argues Janan Ganesh

By Tim Montgomerie
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When the Westminster Village gets an idea into its head its herd-like behaviour is a wonder to behold. Remember before the Olympics when newspaper frontpage after newspaper frontpage was constant doom'n'gloom? Or the shared 'wisdom' that Boris wasn't popular outside the South? One of the Village's other recent conclusions is that Ed Miliband is on the up and up. While, in January, they were burying him (something I suggested, at the time, was overdone) they are now ignoring the fact that, outside of SW1, the public don't really see Miliband Jnr as any more prime ministerial than when he first pipped his brother to the leadership post. On best prime minister ratings he's still stuck below the kind of ratings 'enjoyed' by Gordon Brown. Yes, Gordon Brown. Only 5% see Ed Miliband as a natural leader according to today's Sun/YouGov survey.

On Sunday Paul noted that, under Mr Miliband, Labour's share of the vote is actually quite modest compared to previous Labour leaders. In recent weeks, for example, Labour has been getting up towards 44% in the YouGov daily tracker. that's a long way short of the percentages that Kinnock (56%) or Blair (53%) received in opposition. Labour may have won lots of switchers from the Liberal Democrats but very few from the Tories. Lord Ashcroft's Corby poll appeared to confirm the relative solidity of the Conservative vote for this stage of the electoral cycle. It's the collapse of the LibDem vote that is the problem for Conservative MPs with strongly-second-placed Labour candidates.

The weakness of Ed Miliband is the subject of Janan Ganesh's third Tuesday column for the Financial Times (£). "Miliband ought to be having sleepless nights", he writes, because he has dismal ratings and the guns of the Tory Party and of the right-wing press haven't begun to be turned on him, as they will in the final stages of the parliament:

"Mr Cameron lost about half of his poll lead in his last 18 months as leader of the opposition, as did Mr Blair. A similar squeeze will happen to Labour, starting in 2014. They evince little sign of preparedness."

Do Not Underestimate Labour Association update: Formation of Coalition was biggest gift to Labour in a generation

By Tim Montgomerie
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A couple of Saturdays ago I launched the Do Not Underestimate Labour Association. We've all been so focused on the real weaknesses of Ed Miliband that we've been overlooking the underlying strength of the Labour Party as a whole.

They may have only won 29.0% of the vote at the last election but within days of that result Labour received the biggest electoral gift in a generation - the formation of the Coalition. One of the big reasons why Margaret Thatcher won three elections was that the political Left was divided throughout the 80s. Not now. The 5% to 8% of left-wing voters (a conservative estimate) who supported the Liberal Democrats at the last election are now voting Labour. It's going to take a great deal of bashing-the-rich etc for Nick Clegg or a more left-leaning Lib Dem leader to win them back.

Ed Miliband doesn't have to be brilliant to either win the next election or become leader of the largest party. He starts with a base vote of 35% plus. Because of the vagaries of our electoral system - only partially corrected by the boundary review - Labour need to get to just 38% or 39% to be in the political driving seat.

Launching the Do Not Underestimate Labour Association

By Tim Montgomerie
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Conservatives have had some fun at Ed Miliband's expense this week. Today's Sun revelled in Ed Miliband's "Blackbusters" gaffe. "Silly Mili", it laughed. Guido Fawkes relaunched Iain Martin's Don't Underestimate Ed Miliband Association as the Don't Unseat Ed Miliband Association. "Save Ed Miliband" is the three word prayer of every Number 10 strategist. Tories are probably right to think that "Odd Ed" is a very weak candidate for 10 Downing Street but if it's hard to regard the Labour leader as a potent threat we shouldn't think the same of the Labour Party as a whole.

It may have been a difficult week for the Labour leader but this was one of the more interesting weeks for the Labour Party as a whole. There were real signs that the reality-based wing of the party was finally asserting itself...

• First up was Liam Byrne with his argument that Labour needed to return to a welfare state that William Beveridge would actually recognise. Iain Duncan Smith's shadow argued against the spiralling housing benefit budget, the way the system maintained people in long-term unemployment and, third, insufficient encouragement of thrift. As George Eaton blogged there wasn't much substance in Byrne's article but it was a movement towards the ground occupied by the majority of the British people.
• Second was Shadow Defence Secretary Jim Murphy's identification of £5 billion of defence cuts. Mr Murphy rejected populism on spending and said that by spelling out the cuts his party would move towards credibility. Despite the claims of a Tory press release Mr Murphy did spell out cuts very clearly.
• Third - and least reported - was the Shadow Education Secretary's argument for a longer school day. The Coalition has already advocated this itself but Stephen Twigg's focus on how it could prepare more disadvantaged children for the world of the work was in tune with his party's best working class roots.