David Cameron is right to resist Nick Clegg's drugs intervention

By Matthew Barrett
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Nick Clegg has chosen today to launch an attempt to change Britain's drugs laws. The attempt has failed. David Cameron said, during a press conference in Brussels, that Mr Clegg is entitled to hold a view on the Lib Dems' plans for their next manifesto. That neatly bats away any notion that the Coalition will change current drugs laws. Mr Cameron said:

"I personally don't support a royal commission. In my view there's always a danger, as someone said, that they can take minutes and last for years. I am very happy to debate and discuss drug policy. I think the coalition government has taken a series of good steps. The government, I think, has got a good record on these things and there is some good evidence that drug use and drug abuse is falling."

Cameron is right not to follow Clegg's path.

Mr Clegg used an overly dramatic and inaccurate term in his interview with the Sun today. He said: "We are losing the war on drugs on an industrial scale." The real "war on drugs" primarily relates to actions carried out by the Mexican government against large armed drugs gangs. Some of the south western states of the US are also affected. Britain is not. If Mr Clegg wants to protest against the policies of the Mexican and American government, he is free to do so. But he should not pretend British drugs laws are anything to do with it. In reality, we gave up any pretense of a "war on drugs" in Britain decades ago. 

Cameron seen as tougher, stronger and more competent than Miliband but Labour leader more 'in touch'

By Tim Montgomerie
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Last Saturday we published the first instalment of an exclusive YouGov/ ConHome poll.

That first instalment compared the leadership ratings of Cable and Clegg. Cable won on all five criteria.

The chart below compares the Conservative and Labour leaders ---

The poll confirms the general findings of other polls. David Cameron is seen as tough and also as more competent and stronger than Miliband. Where Miliband scores better is when it comes to caring for the vulnerable and understanding the concerns of ordinary people.

Conservative HQ thinks that Ed Miliband is nonetheless vulnerable on a number of issues of importance to ordinary voters, especially in Midlands swing seats. Part of the Tories' anti-Labour strategy will be to paint Mr Miliband as out of touch on immigration, welfare and crime. Where Mr Miliband has succeeded on the empathy front has been to focus on cost of living issues; the number one concern of floating voters. His squeezed middle phrase has been the most memorable of this parliament and Labour will be campaigning heavily on rail fares and to a lesser extent the price of petrol. Opportunistic certainly but not ineffective.

Favourite for next Director-General of the BBC is a dyed-in-the-wool Labour apparatchik

By Matthew Barrett
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Last month, we reported on the contribution of Matthew Elliott, CEO of the TaxPayers' Alliance, to a ConHome event on how to win the next election. Elliott made the important point that Labour's long march of the institutions has not been reversed by the current government. He also said two forthcoming appointments - the Chair of the Charity Commision and the Director-General of the BBC - would test the government's willingness to act on this issue.

The Daily Mail's editorial today - after rightfully attacking the BBC's pitiful coverage of the last few days' Jubilee celebrations - gives us an idea of exactly who Lord Patten of Barnes, the Chairman of the BBC Trust, is likely to appoint to the position of Director-General, after the incumbent, Mark Thompson steps down. The Mail said:

"[I]ncredibly, the man being tipped as the front-runner for the director generalship is an unashamed Labour supporter (he even helped write the party’s manifesto) who has never made a TV programme in his life. Indeed, as head of the media regulator, Ofcom, the only aptitude Ed Richards has shown is for running a bloated quango, with nearly 1,000 staff, housed in magnificent offices by the Thames. This same Mr Richards has been roundly attacked by a Commons committee for his misleading accounting methods (perhaps learned during his time working in Tony Blair’s policy unit alongside Ed Miliband and Ed Balls), his failure to control Ofcom’s exorbitant £140million budget and the lavish salaries he paid the quango’s senior commissars (including almost £400,000 for himself)."

Only 1 in 5 Labour voters would back Ed Miliband, according to a poll in The Sun

By Joseph Willits 
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Today's Sun carries a YouGov poll which is bad news for the Labour party generally - and Ed Miliband personally.

• The poll suggests that only 1 in 5 Labour voters believe that Miliband is doing a good enough job.

• 51% of Labour voters saying that Miliband could do better.

• 40% of these have given Miliband a year's ultimatum to improve.

• A further 26% have given him up to 2 years to up his game.

• Only 17% would allow Ed Miliband up until the next election in 2015, time to improve.

Only yesterday it was reported that Miliband's picture was absent from Labour's election literature for December 15th's Feltham and Heston byelection. 

Blair continues to voice his concerns about Ed Miliband's leadership

By Matthew Barrett
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Tony Blair appeared on BBC One's Politics Show today, and made more Coalition-friendly comments, continuing a recent trend. 

He was asked about Labour leader Ed Miliband, and appeared uncomfortable answering the question, saying "Well, you know there’s only a certain amount you can say really without saying too much". When pressed about whether (Ed) Miliband is "a torch bearer for New Labour", Blair answered:

"...he’s going to decide, you know, how he defines himself and what his position is, you know I can say and I have said where I think Labour – that Labour would win as a modern progressive force fighting from the centre. But I hope and believe that that’s what he’ll do."

Blair emphasised the need for the Labour Party to modernise:

"I mean I’m just – I’m just sitting here saying from where I’m sitting looking at, you know, Labour Parties, progressive parties around the world, those that succeed do so by constantly modernising, those that don’t modernise usually get beaten."

Blair also took a shot at the unions, saying:

"But you’ve got to understand today how fast the world is changing. And what you’ve always got to be careful of – particularly with public sector unions, is you don’t become 'small c' conservatives. You know the world is – we’re going to resist the change, we’re going to keep the status quo. So the only question for countries like ours is,  how fast can you engage with this process of change in the world?"

A year out of office, Alistair Darling backs Gordon Brown's rival for head of the IMF

Matthew Barrett
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The merits of current French finance minister Christine Lagarde for the position of head of the International Monetary Fund have been discussed elsewhere by others more au fait with macroeconomic matters than I. But what is politically significant is Alistair Darling's support for Lagarde over a candidate from this country. Darling said of Lagarde:

"She has an easygoing manner and she gets on with people exceptionally well. I remember a meeting of Ecofin [EU finance ministers] dealing with the Greek crisis last May and it was her determination that the meeting would not end before there was an agreement, which meant there was an agreement."

Gordon Brown has so far failed to attract the support of many people in Britain. Since David Cameron ruled out backing Brown for the job, there has been a low-key Labour response of "the Tories are putting party before country". Ed Miliband said Brown is "eminently qualified" - but what else could he say? He is the leader of a party that firmly believes Brown's policies were correct.

Brown's own Chancellor, Darling, who no longer has to obey the Brownite line since stepping down from Cabinet after the election, has been free to support who he wishes. By supporting Brown's European rival Lagarde, and praising her as having qualities no-one would assign to Brown, Darling has managed to dismantle any credibility Brown's bid might have had.

Cameron is "jolly" but has no fixed ideology, says Mandelson

The Times is beginning a serialisation of Peter Mandelson's autobiography, The Third Man.

It's all behind Rupert Murdoch's new paywall and I must be careful not to give away too much or I'll be in trouble with the great man's lawyers but to whet your appetite for what those willing to pay £2-a-week can read, here's what Lord Mandelson says about the Tory leader in a related exclusive interview for The Times:

"Cameron, says Peter Mandelson, is “very amicable, with a lively sense of humour. He’s a bit like Tony in that sense. He’s jolly. But essentially what defines David Cameron is that he’s a rather patrician Tory. He’s neither a Thatcherite nor a One Nation Tory; Chris Patten and others like that had quite a philosophical view of Conservatism — what it stood for and what it should do for all the people in the country. I don’t think David Cameron has an ideology. He has views. He has attitudes and he has some prejudices.

“He has a certain ‘born to rule’ thing about him; a sense of entitlement — somebody who thinks that he would be good at governing and being Prime Minister. Indeed, I always remember the Editor of The Daily Telegraph telling me, a year ago, when they had Cameron to dinner, the first question they asked him was, ‘Well, why do you want to be prime minister?’ And he said, ‘Because I think I’d be good at it.’

Now that’s not bad as a sort of first answer but if it’s all the answer you have . . .” He goes on: “That doesn’t mean to say that he’s a bad politician. I think he’s actually rather a good politician — but he is excessively political in a sense. He has values but he doesn’t have a set of fixed, political beliefs that flow from a particular political outlook or philosophy.

“I mean, what is his view of the role of government or the State or markets? Does he really believe, as the ‘Big Society’ implied, that government should just get out of the way and let people organise their schools and hospitals as they wish? I don’t believe he actually thought that through. I don’t think he invested a great deal of time in it. It was a marketing device. It was a narrative that was put into his hands or head by Steve Hilton [his director of strategy]. He could see the political appeal of it because it was neither wholly the State or wholly the market; it was his version of the Third Way. But, under examination, it was like sand disappearing through your fingertips.”"

More here (£).

Tim Montgomerie

Labour aim to present this election as a choice between strong Brown and weak Cameron

The Guardian has an interview with Gordon Brown this morning.

We learn that he will keep Darling as Chancellor if he wins the election. Sensible given yesterday's ComRes finding that the Brown/Darling team enjoys a modest lead over Cameron/Osborne when it comes to running the economy... although as we reveal on today's front page an Angus-Reid poll suggests in a straight Brown V Cameron comparison, the Tories win on the economy.

We also learn that Labour will have five pledges at the heart of their campaign; to secure the economy, make it hi-tech, raise living standards, protect services, and strengthen community fairness (BBC). All very vague and much less measurable than pledges from previous elections.

For me the most interesting snippet from the interview is this quote from Brown:

"'Show me a soldier who has made no mistakes and I will show you a soldier who has won no battles.' You have got to be honest that sometimes you do make mistakes. But equally if you are determined to do something, if you've got strong willpower, then you are going to push things forward."

That's how Labour plans to frame this election; Brown as the strong man - flawed but with the will power to get Britain through difficult times. In contrast Cameron will be presented as untested and weak.  That framing will be imposed on all issues, particularly the economy. You can be sure that Mandelson, Campbell, Whelan and the other Labour operators have the discipline to stick to that framing.

Tim Montgomerie

Can we believe what the Prime Minister says?

David Cameron taunts Gordon Brown after he abandoned plans for a honeymoon election. In this video from October 2007 the Tory leader says Mr Brown is the first Prime Minister in history to have flunked an election because he thought he could win it.