We've asked Peter Riddell, leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times, the same questions on opinion polling we asked Stephan Shakespeare of YouGov, Andrew Hawkins of CommunicateResearch and Ben Page of Ipsos Mori. You can watch their answers here and you can read Peter's answers below.
Blair is still in office. The public have yet to see Brown in Downing Street. Then there's the silly and party conference seasons. When will be a good time to start taking the headline polls seriously again?
Headline polls are only one part of the polling picture; and often non-voting intention questions are as, if not more, interesting. The mere fact of Brown being in 10 Downing Street will change public views. However, it is likely to take some time for the public to take a firm view of him. So keep watching the polls from next week on, but we will not be clear on trends until October/November at the earliest.
The traditional view is that governments are most unpopular in the middle of their terms and their popularity generally increases closer to elections. In this era of constant electioneering does that historical pattern still hold true?
It all depends on how Governments perform-- some see their poll ratings improve as an election approaches, others like the Tories in 1997 do not. I think what matters is less constant electioneering which excites the political and media worlds than deeper, underlying public views of the parties and their leaders which when formed are hard to alter. For instance, the public made up its mind against William Hague in 1999 and that view was impossible to shift.
What do you think of Robert Worcester's belief that economic competence, party unity and leader image are principal determinants of a party's success?
Yes, party's success depends on a mixture of economic competence, party unity and leader image, but this is a pretty all-embracing statement covering most influences. I think you have to distinguish between absolute and relative views. People may be cool about, say, Labour after Iraq but still prefer it to the Tories.
Do you think that public opinion moves more quickly or more slowly than in the past?
It is always best to stand back and look at underlying poll trends rather than fluctuations in one or other poll, and, invariably, the more sensational the shift in voting intentions in a poll, the greater the coverage. So rogue polls get more headlines than boring ones confirming a trend. The trouble is that you can never be absolutely sure it is a rogue until later.
Are Liberal Democrat voters a largely Conservative or Labour-leaning group?
You cannot generalise about Lib Dem voters. It depends on the constituency where they live (is there a Tory or Labour incumbent) and who is in government at the time? In value terms, many Lib Dems are closer to Labour but that has not prevented tactical voting against Labour, as in the 2005 elections.
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