New Zealand's John Key sets out his practical conservatism, emphasising family, school and work

By Tim Montgomerie
_{Follow Tim on Twitter}

The international governing politician who David Cameron is closest to is New Zealand's 51 year old, 38th Prime Minister, John Key.

Mr Key is no firebrand, reforming conservative. He prides himself on his pragmatism and after a long period of Labour rule he was re-elected at the end of 2011. His National Party's support increased from his first victory, when it won 44.9%, to 47.3% last November.

Earlier this month Mr Key gave a landscape speech on his political philosophy. In an address to Ausatralia's Menzies Research Centre, in honour of John Howard, he set out his core beliefs.

This included a defence of the role that government plays in society. Drawing on his personal experience he said this:

"I was a kid who benefited from both the welfare state and a mother who pushed us to improve ourselves through hard work. My father died when I was young. We had no other family in New Zealand and we had very little money. My mother was on a Widows Benefit for a time, before she started working as a cleaner. The State provided us with somewhere to live, and ensured my mother had food to put on the table when we most needed it. The State also gave me the opportunity to have a good education at the local high school and at university."

We don't hear this sort of thing enough from conservatives. We are not small state fundamentalists and should never risk appearing so. Conservatives are in favour of limited and focused government but some, particularly young, more libertarian co-belligerents allow rhetoric to run away with itself and end up appearing anti-government.

Another nation holds a general election and it's another victory for the Right

By Tim Montgomerie
Follow Tim on Twitter

The week began with the victory of Spain's Conservatives. It ends with good news from the other side of the world.

Our congratulations to John Key and the New Zealand National Party. Mr Key - the international conservative leader most like David Cameron - has been re-elected as his country's Prime Minister. His re-election is further proof that, in these tough times, voters are deciding they can't afford left-wing tax and spend parties.

Graphic below from the New Zealand Herald.

John Key's seven messages for New Zealand

The leader of New Zealand's Nationals has issued these posters to define his forthcoming campaign.

"There is actually a limit to what governments can do."

John Key, New Zealand's new Prime Minister, is riding high in the polls.  His National Party is scoring 56% in a latest opinion poll and 69% of New Zealanders are saying that their country is 'heading in the right direction'.  Just 18% say it is going in the wrong direction.

Mr Key is achieving this without copying the activist spending policies of Washington, Tokyo or Canberra.  In an interview with the Wall Street Journal he sets out some of the beliefs that are guiding him:

• Limited, focused government: "There is actually a limit to what governments can do... Your citizens are entitled to expect you to be realistic... to be specific about what it is you're going to do, what you can or can't do."
• Control of government spending: He has decided not to copy "risky" high-borrowing policies to help New Zealand weather the economic storm.  The only thing sure about such policies, he says, is that "you've saddled future generations with an enormous amount of debt that then they have to repay."
• Lower corporate taxation: "If you really are out of whack with the prevailing corporate tax rates, and there's been a global shift toward countries lowering their corporate tax rate, then you're not likely to attract capital, or you're likely to lose capital."
• Lower regulation: "Good regulatory reform can be an important catalyst toward driving economic growth and coming out of the recession faster."  The WSJ's Mary Kissel notes how Mr Key is "chipping away entrenched regulations that drive away foreign capital".  He is also reviewing the previous Labour adminstration's heavy-handed climate change regulations; "New Zealand needs to balance its environmental responsibilities with its economic opportunities, because the risk is that if you don't do that -- and you want to lead the world -- then you might end up getting unintended consequences."
• Free trade: "The world, whether we like it or not, will become more and more borderless."

Right wins big victory in New Zealand

Keep up-to-date with results here.

Time for change message reaches New Zealand tomorrow

Nine years of Labour rule is set to end in New Zealand tomorrow.  Polls point to a big win for John Key's Nationals and a possible outright win without the need to coalesce with minority parties.  The two videos below highlight Labour's failures on education and crime and end with the message that appears to be sweeping the world: It's time for change.

Centre right parties squeezed by economic crisis

The economic crisis is hurting centre right parties as Dan Hannan predicted it would:

"In the current climate, what people see are fat-cat bankers being bailed out by hard-pressed taxpayers. And, instead of objecting to the bail-out, they object to the bankers and, by extension, to the free market culture they are thought to embody. The world over, Left-of-Centre parties are benefiting: Obama in the US, Brown here."

Since the onset of the crisis John McCain has fallen significantly behind Barack Obama.

The possibility of Prime Minister Stephen Harper winning a majority in Canada have also declined.  The opposition Liberals have moved up in recent polls.

It's not just an anti-incumbent effect either.

In the UK Labour's opinion poll disadvantage has been halved.  20% behind six weeks ago the Tory lead is now just 10%.  Labour now lead the Tories on some measures economic trust.

New Zealand's Labour Prime Minister Helen Clark has also stormed back in the polls.  With just four weeks to go until polling day one poll has the Nationals down 7% to 40.5% and the governing Labour Party up a point to 37.5%.  If repeated in November 8th's General Election that would produce a hung parliament.

Helen Clark's airbrushed campaign photo fails to halt Nationals' bandwagon

The New Zealand Herald reported earlier this week about the disparity between New Zealand Labour leader's campaign photo and her real look.  The image on the left - as if we needed to say - is a recent photo and the image on the right is the image she wants to present!  Helen Clark's campaign makeover is doing nothing to reverse the centre-right Nationals' lead in the polls, however. Current polls point to a National lead of 11%; enough to form the country's first conservative government in ten years.

Related links:

• John Key plays safety first as he seeks to end a decade of Labour rule in New Zealand
• David Cameron meets John Key
  

New Zealand General Election will be on 8th November

Here is Mr Key greeting Prime Minister Helen Clark's announcement. He promises to put education and a 'crusade on literacy' at the heart of the campaign:

Mr Key is expected to win the election and be New Zealand's next Prime Minister. Click here for the National Party's website.

John Key plays safety first as he seeks to end a decade of Labour rule in New Zealand

It's just a few months until New Zealand goes to the polls and the opposition Nationals enjoy average leads of 15% over the Labour government of Helen Clark.  The New Zealand Herald has just completed one hundred interviews and published an extended profile of Mr Key.  Fairly or unfairly it portrays a man who has journeyed to "the centre" over the last six years.  Colin James of the Herald sees risks in Mr Key's "bland ambition":

"In policy after policy he says he will keep what Clark has put in place. Yet he also says he will drive a step-change in the economy and close the wealth gap with Australia.  Where once as shadow finance minister he was keen to sell down 20 per cent of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), to spread the capitalist idea among mums and dads and smarten financial discipline, he will now keep the lot, he says - even KiwiRail!

...One is a risk for this election: that room is left for fear-mongers to scarify centrist voters about Key's "real" intentions. Given long enough in government, will he sell KiwiRail (and other SOEs), Balkanise ACC, stiffen employers' hands against employees and whittle away Working for Families and pensions? Key's fresh glow will likely blot out this short-term risk.

The second risk is for after the election if National is in power: that blandness may allow over-expectations to build of what it would do in a first term, especially to ease household financial pressures. In addition, voters may well infer from National's law and order, health and other criticisms that it can readily fix what it is criticising.

The economy is seriously unbalanced. Rebalancing will be painful. We have only just started. Large tax cuts might ease households' pain but will not make it go away. National's acceptance of most Labour programmes adds to the difficulty of dealing with the pain, let alone generating economic step-change."