Could Rick Perry be "the one" for Republicans?

By Matthew Barrett
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US Republicans are having a tough time considering who their candidate should be for the 2012 Presidential election. 

Mitt Romney is the current front-runner, but has a ceiling of support at around 35-40% of the vote. He is fatally hamstrung, however, by the healthcare law he passed when he was Governor of Massachusetts, which many Republicans compare to the federal healthcare law ("Obamacare") which they fiercely oppose and are desperate to repeal. He is also a Mormon, which largely makes him unable to connect with the evangelical Christians who make up a sizeable chunk of the Republican Party.

Michele Bachmann, who entered the race to become the party's nominee relatively recently, has created a lot of excitement, and started coming second in polls. Despite her lack of a record to point to (she has been representing Minnesota's 6th Congressional district for four years) and lack of executive experience, the excitement around her is understandable. She's the first candidate really to start vocally challenging President Obama, she's a Tea Partier, and she gets media coverage. 

Three reasons why the international Right has prospered during capitalism's "crisis"

“This financial crisis is for capitalist neoliberals what Chernobyl was for the nuclear lobby.”

- Daniel Cohn-Bendit in 2008

This week's Economist looks at some of the reasons why the Right has actually done rather well in electoral terms (eg at last year's European Elections) over the last two years:

1. The popular backlash against capitalism has not been substantial: "Polls suggest that the popular backlash against the economic system has been less sharp than the left expected. Last November a survey of 29,000 people across 27 countries (almost all democracies) by GlobeScan and the BBC World Service found that only 23% agreed that capitalism is “fatally flawed” and needs replacing. Some 51% believed it had problems that could be addressed through regulation and reform, and a further 11% were happy with the system as it is. Similarly, there was more support for an increased government role in redistributing wealth and regulating businesses than for outright state control of big industries."
2. Certain right-wing issues are more salient during recession: "Non-economic issues dear to conservatives—like crime, immigration [see here] and national security—matter at least as much in recessionary times. Certainly, Mr Cameron’s narrative of British social decline has resonated with voters. For Mr Sarkozy, a firm line on crime and the secular ideals of the French republic have been keys to success."
3. The right has embraced more interventionism: "Pressure from within her own party that persuaded Mrs Merkel to set up a vote-winning “Germany Fund” to help businesses cope with recession. Gaullists love Mr Sarkozy’s support of a Tobin tax on currency speculation. Some Tories may grumble about Mr Cameron’s accommodation with Labour’s “big state”—but they do so quietly. He has had the latitude to make promises to protect health spending and clamp down on bankers, while avoiding promises to reverse recent tax rises." This has caused calls for Mrs Merkel to pursue a more "pure CDU" and Sarkozy has been attacked for his ideological confusion.

Read the full piece in The Economist.

Sarkozy says Burkha is not welcome in France

France may have Western Europe's largest Muslim population - five million - but it was also the country that, five years ago, banned the Muslim headscarf and other religious symbols from public schools.  President Nicolas Sarkozy has now joined calls for the burkha to be banned:

"We cannot accept to have in our country women who are prisoners behind netting, cut off from all social life, deprived of identity. That is not the idea that the French republic has of women's dignity.
"The burka is not a sign of religion, it is a sign of subservience. It will not be welcome on the territory of the French republic."

President Sarkozy's stance contrasts with that of President Obama, set out in Cairo last month:

"The US government has gone to court to protect the right of women and girls to wear the hijab, and to punish those who would deny it."

The Times' Charles Bremner reports mixed views from France's Muslim leaders:

"Imam of the Paris Mosque Dalil Boubakeur supported an inquiry, saying that face covering for women was a fundamentalist practice originating in Afghanistan that was not prescribed by Islam. The national Muslim Council, which is less tied to the establishment, accused lawmakers of wasting time on a fringe phenomenon. "To raise the subject like this ... is a way of stigmatising Islam," council leader Mohammed Moussaoui said."

Does immigration explain the European Right's electoral success?

The Economist's Charlemagne doesn't quite believe the argument but posts a possible explanation for why Europe's Right is benefiting from this decade's recession when Europe's Left benefited from the downturn of the 1990s:

"Normally, recessions benefit the left. The Golden Age for the centre left in the European Parliament was the 1990s when Europe had double digit unemployment and a nasty recession. Yet in the current recession, voters are turning to right-wing and xenophobic parties across the Old Continent, away from the parties that historically contributed much more to the construction of the European welfare state. Yet ideologically, parties of the left are unwilling to limit immigration or access to welfare for immigrants. So with unemployment and deficits rising, native born citizens have the "legitimate worry" that those defending redistribution will still end up forced to cut welfare payments, because they will not limit immigration."

A YouGov survey for MigrationWatch showed that immigration was the fourth most important issue for UK voters in last week's elections:

• 51% said Britain's relationship with the EU
• 51% said economy, jobs and standard of living
• 40% said conduct of MPs
• 35% said immigration
• 14% said the environment
• 12% said the NHS
• 12% said crime
• 7% said education.

Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party may top poll in Dutch European Elections

Some key numbers from the latest ComRes survey of European opinion:

• "Controversial nationalist politician Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (NI), formed only in February 2006, holds a narrow lead over Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende’s Christian Democrat Appeal (EPP-ED). Wilders’ party, whose support has swelled since the publication of the firebrand’s anti-Islam film Fitna, may well rock the Dutch political establishment to the core by topping the poll in the June European elections."
• Berlusconi may be experiencing martital breakup but his new Coalition is looking very strong - at 48% in current polls; 14% ahead of the left opposition.  56% of all voters have confidence in Prime Minister Berlusconi.
• 48% of French voters are satisfied with President Nicolas Sarkozy, 50% are dissatisfied
• Angela Merkel remains on course to escape having to cohabit with the SPD after this year's German General Election.  The CDU/CSU and their natural allies, the FD, are at 52% in current polls.
• Is 52% the biggest lead enjoyed by any European political party? Hungary's Civic Union is 52% ahead of its main socialist party rival.
• Prime Minister Brian Cowen's Fianna Fáil trails the opposition Fine Gael by 10% in Irish opinion polls.
• Spain's Popular Party holds a narrow 2% lead over the Socialist government.

Despite talk of a crisis for the Right, left wing parties trail their centre right opponents in Europe's five largest nations.

Click here for a PDF of the full ComRes briefing.

Click here for last month's briefing.

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