The only grown up candidate in Italy's general election won just 10% of the vote

By Tim Montgomerie
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Here's your quick summary of Italy's election result.

In fourth place with about 10% of the vote was the current prime minister - the free market, fiscally responsible (ie pro-austerity) Mario Monti.

In third place, winning about a quarter of the vote, is the completely insurgent Five Star party of the foul-mouthed stand up comic Beppe Grillo. He cannot stand for parliament himself because of a manslaugher conviction dating from 1981.

In second place with about 29.2% of the vote is Silvio Berlusconi's centre right coalition. Sex scandals, dodgy business deals and a record of policy failure in government haven't prevented Mr Berlusconi from winning three times as many votes as the markets' favourite candidate, Mr Monti.

And in first place, by the narrowest of margins, is a centre left bloc. Pier Luigi Bersani's left-leaning parties won 29.5%.

If Moody's downgraded Britain they and international markets are going to love this.

Reaction abroad to Cameron's Europe speech

By Paul Goodman
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I'm grateful to the Foreign Office for their note with these quotes, which I have cheerfully plundered.

Germany

Angela Merkel, Chancellor: "Germany, and I personally, want Britain to be an important part and an active member of the European Union... We are prepared to talk about British wishes…and we must find a fair compromise. We will talk intensively with Britain about its individual ideas but that has some time over the months ahead."

Die Welt: "Our Continent needs a rethink. Germany finds different answers than France, but France should also seek and find new answers for itself instead of resting on its Grande Nation laurels. What does the EU want to be? Will it continue to grow ever larger – or grow up and learn not to tar all nations with the same brush? In view of the excessive bureaucracy, unscrupulous debt-making, lack of transparency and democracy, it is not “more Europe” that we need but a Europe with well-defined contours... Britain’s scepticism, its non-conformism and its liberalism were always the engine for Europe. Nothing is final. What is needed today is a German-British axis. It is now a question of Europe’s future, not its past."

France

Pierre Moscovici, France's Finance Minister: "It’s for the British people to decide what they think… Britain is a distinctive member of the European Union…who asked for a rebate, which still exists, and who isn’t part of Sechengen, but at the same time is extremely useful on common foreign and security policy. ...The European spirit is also about respecting diversity.  Europe is united in its diversity.…like the President of the Republic, I support both a united Europe but also a “differentiated” one, which means some members can go faster than others.

The Netherlands

Frans Timmermans, Foreign Minister: "The EU must be reformed. The Netherlands and the UK are in agreement on that point. To overcome the crisis and achieve sustainable growth, the flaws in the euro must be mended, the internal market must be enhanced and free-trade agreements must be concluded with the US and Asian countries. The member states need to institute the necessary reforms, and Brussels will have to tighten its belt and work more efficiently. The UK and the Netherlands are allied on almost all these issues. This is why we want to keep the British on board in the EU."

Mark Verheijen, spokesman on Europe for the governing Liberal party. “We want a Europe that remains limited to its core tasks. He [Cameron] is framing the debate sharply,” he said.

Ireland

Lucinda Creighton, Minister for European Affairs said after the speech that there were "no surprises" in the PM's speech. Creighton said that it was now up to the British people to decide on their future relationship with the EU. She noted that the speech's reference to strengthening the single market and the need to be competitive were principles that "we all agree with". She said she hoped an in-out referendum in Britain would lead to a "more balanced and reasonable debate", adding "Our experience of referendums has been very positive, in that they really engaged people in the issues".

Eamon Gilmore (Tanaiste) said yesterday evening that it “would be better for us all” were the UK to remain in the EU. He went on to say that “We’re very close neighbours. We are now very good friends. We share a shared responsibility for the peace process in Northern Ireland and I have said publicly and I repeat here: Ireland wants to see the United Kingdom as a fully engaged committed member of the EU.”

Denmark

Pia Olsen Dyhr, Minister for Trade and Investment: “I’ve listened with interest to Cameron’s speech this morning. The UK is a great market for Danish business and the UK is a good ally on the issue of free trade – not least trade agreement with 3rd countries. Therefore it is important to continue to keep the UK close to the EU”.

Czech lands

Petr Necas, Prime Minister: "The scepticism of the British public is understandable... British voters’ feelings of remoteness from EU elites in Brussels are right... EU competitiveness is a Czech priority as well. The Czech Republic has no interest in the UK leaving the EU and it wants to see the UK as a part of the EU’s future."

Sweden

John Fredrik Reinfeldt, Prime Minister: "Of vital interest for Sweden that UK remains in EU".

Hungary

Enikő Győri, Europe Minister: More and more European citizens are sceptical about the EU truly representing the interests of the people “and they often feel that the decisions are made too far away from them and over their heads”, therefore the Union has to regain their trust.

European Commission statement: "This is an important contribution to the democratic debate on Europe in the United Kingdom. It is for the British Government and people to set out what they feel is the best approach to the UK's place within the European Union. The Commission welcomes the Prime Minister's unequivocal statement that he wants Britain to remain in the European Union. The EU is a Union based on the democratic will of its Member States. The Commission has been consistent in stating that, provided Britain wants to remain in the European Union, it is very much in the European interest - and in the UK's own interest - for Britain to be an active member at the centre of the European Union.  The UK brings a great deal to European integration and has positively shaped European policies from the deepening of the single market, to enlargement, to climate and energy policy, to keeping Europe open to the world and developing new trade opportunities. Following the speech, the internal debate will hopefully focus on the substance of the current relationship and will allow for a well-informed assessment of how working through Europe impacts on the UK's influence on global challenges."

Former Spanish Prime Minister José María Aznar urges the EU to "stop smashing the club rules" and return to fiscal conservatism

By Matthew Barrett
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José María Aznar, who was the Prime Minister of Spain from 1996 until 2004, and a member of the centre-right People's Party, has written for the Times today (£). Aznar, who holds Europhile views, criticises the way European Union member states deviated from the strict fiscal rules they were expected to abide by, leading to the economic woes which now face several member states.

Firstly, Aznar welcomes European leaders waking up from "a denial of reality": "Europe’s political leaders are finally acknowledging the reality of the debt crisis suffered by some eurozone countries. This change of attitude is good news. Until last week’s summit, the European political consensus was a denial of reality, embellished with a large amount of rhetoric and appeals to a false sense of European solidarity."

Snapshot of European opinion

The CDU/CSU-FDP coalition is enjoying something of a honeymoon after Angela Merkel successfully formed a new post-election coalition with the reformist FDP. The Social Democrats are down to 21% - half of their support in 1998.

The Irish government of Fianna Fáil's Brian Cowen is trailing Fine Gael by 35% to 25%.

The Czech ODS - Tory allies in the European Parliament - are slightly behind the Social Democrats (32% to 29%). The Czech election will take place next June.

The Tories' allies in Poland - the Law and Justice Party - are 48% to 28% behind Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform.

Geert Wilders' Freedom Party is currently leading public opinion in the Netherlands.

Sweden's centre right government led by Fredrik Reinfeldt is trailing the Social Democrats by 30% to 34%. Elections are due next September.

Click here for a PDF of the full ComRes briefing and here for ConInternational's previous snapshot summary. If you would like to subscribe to ComRes' European Opinion Briefing please email [email protected].

Centre right leaders on top of the polls in Europe's four biggest powers

'The right' did very well in June's elections to the European Parliament. ComRes' regular summary of opinion across Europe has just been published and it is noticeable that in addition to David Cameron's big lead in British opinion surveys, the centre right leaders of Europe's other three big nations all remain popular:

• 53% of French voters think Sarkozy is a good President.  38% think him a bad president.
• In Italy, despite constant speculation about Berlusconi's private life his centre-right coalition holds a 12% lead over the fractured parties of the left.
• Germany's Merkel remains on course for re-election and should be able to ditch the leftist SPD as a coalition partner and govern with the FDP - a liberal party that is a more natural ally.  Many left-wing voters have deserted the Social Democrats for the Greens.  Merkel's election bid was analysed in a little more detail on Tuesday.

Other highlights:

• Broadly left-of-centre parties hold a narrow 49% to 46% lead over broadly right-of-centre parties in Czech polling. The Republic will vote for a new government in October 2009.
• Centre right parties enjoy the support of 49% of Norweijan voters ahead of 14th September's election but the fractured nature of the right may mean the Labour Party of Norway holds on to office.  49% of Norway remains opposed to EU membership.  A 10% lead over the 'Yes' camp.
• Vladimir Putin's United Russia Party has a 50% lead over its nearest rivals!  UR is on 57% and the Communists have just 7%.

Click here for a PDF of the full ComRes briefing and here for ConIntl's previous snapshot summary.

If you would like to subscribe to ComRes' European Opinion Briefing please email [email protected].

Does immigration explain the European Right's electoral success?

The Economist's Charlemagne doesn't quite believe the argument but posts a possible explanation for why Europe's Right is benefiting from this decade's recession when Europe's Left benefited from the downturn of the 1990s:

"Normally, recessions benefit the left. The Golden Age for the centre left in the European Parliament was the 1990s when Europe had double digit unemployment and a nasty recession. Yet in the current recession, voters are turning to right-wing and xenophobic parties across the Old Continent, away from the parties that historically contributed much more to the construction of the European welfare state. Yet ideologically, parties of the left are unwilling to limit immigration or access to welfare for immigrants. So with unemployment and deficits rising, native born citizens have the "legitimate worry" that those defending redistribution will still end up forced to cut welfare payments, because they will not limit immigration."

A YouGov survey for MigrationWatch showed that immigration was the fourth most important issue for UK voters in last week's elections:

• 51% said Britain's relationship with the EU
• 51% said economy, jobs and standard of living
• 40% said conduct of MPs
• 35% said immigration
• 14% said the environment
• 12% said the NHS
• 12% said crime
• 7% said education.

Europe swings rightwards in European Parliamentary Elections

When the recession struck many expected the Left to gain in global politics but in yesterday's European Parliamentary elections, it was centre right parties that advanced.

The Guardian:

"In Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary and the Czech Republic, the centre right won the elections, with stunning defeats for the left in certain cases. In the EU's biggest country, Germany, returning 99 of the parliament's 736 seats, the Social Democrats (SPD), the junior partner in Chancellor Angela Merkel's grand coalition, sunk to an all-time low, with 21% of the vote....

France's president, Nicolas Sarkozy, claimed triumph with 28% for his UMP party to the Socialists 17%, the first time a sitting French president has won a European election since the vote began 30 years ago.

In Italy, the centre-right government of Silvio Berlusconi also did well, despite his marital breakdown and scandals over parties at his Sardinian villa, while in Spain the Socialist government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero also lost the election to conservatives....

The main opposition for Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, is further to the right, while the leaders in France and Italy appeared to benefit from tough anti-immigration and law-and-order stances, despite the soap opera nature of both leaders' private lives.

With the jobless numbers soaring amid the worst economic crisis in the lifetimes of European voters, the centre left is clearly failing to benefit politically in circumstances that might be expected to boost its support."

Good news for Berlusconi and Wilders in European polling, less good news for Sarkozy and Merkel

On European Elections Day for Britain (not the rest of Europe) here are snapshots of opinion across the continent as compiled by London's ComRes opinion pollster:

• "Controversial nationalist politician Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (NI), formed only in February 2006, is tied with Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende’s Christian Democrat Appeal (EPP-ED) in terms of projected seats in the Dutch Parliament, the Tweede Kamer. Wilders’ party, whose support has swelled since the publication of the firebrand’s anti-Islam film Fitna, may well rock the Dutch political establishment to the core by topping the poll in the June European elections.  Wilders has eschewed the offer of French MEP Bruno Gollnisch for his party to join a reconstituted far-right grouping in the Parliament after the June elections and it continues remains unclear where his deputies will sit."   
• Angela Merkel still looks a good prospect for the next national German elections but the CDU/CSU is currently 8% below the 45% it received in the last European Elections for this week's contest.  "After two successive European election campaigns in which the party lost seats, the German Social Democrats (PES) will increase its representation in the European Parliament."
• 37% of Czechs intend to vote for the Civic Democrats (the new coalition partners of Britain's Tory MEPs) as opposed to 28% who will support the Social Democrats – an 11% 9% lead.
• The Law & Justice Party of Poland - another likely partner for Britain's Tory MEPs - is on course for 25% of the European Elections vote.  Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centre-right Civic Platform (EPP-ED) will top the poll with nearly 50% of the vote.
• Swedish Prime Minister Frederick Reinfeldt’s centre-right Moderate Rally (EPP-ED) trail the Social Democrats by 8% in advance of the European elections. 51% of Swedes are ready to back the Euro.
• 63% of French voters are negative about President Sarkozy's performance.
• Opinion in Denmark on the Euro is finely balanced.  45% support membership, 44% oppose.
• Libertas leader Declan Ganley "is in strong competition for a seat in the North West constituency" of Ireland.  Support for Lisbon is now running at 52% versus 29%.
• Despite speculation about the Italian premier's private life 54% of voters in Italy still support Berlusconi's coalition government.
• The Socialist government of Spain and the opposition centre right Popular Party are level-pegging at 41% and 40% respectively.

Click here for a PDF of the full ComRes briefing.

Click here for last month's briefing.

If you would like to subscribe to ComRes' European Opinion Briefing please email [email protected].

Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party may top poll in Dutch European Elections

Some key numbers from the latest ComRes survey of European opinion:

• "Controversial nationalist politician Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (NI), formed only in February 2006, holds a narrow lead over Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende’s Christian Democrat Appeal (EPP-ED). Wilders’ party, whose support has swelled since the publication of the firebrand’s anti-Islam film Fitna, may well rock the Dutch political establishment to the core by topping the poll in the June European elections."
• Berlusconi may be experiencing martital breakup but his new Coalition is looking very strong - at 48% in current polls; 14% ahead of the left opposition.  56% of all voters have confidence in Prime Minister Berlusconi.
• 48% of French voters are satisfied with President Nicolas Sarkozy, 50% are dissatisfied
• Angela Merkel remains on course to escape having to cohabit with the SPD after this year's German General Election.  The CDU/CSU and their natural allies, the FD, are at 52% in current polls.
• Is 52% the biggest lead enjoyed by any European political party? Hungary's Civic Union is 52% ahead of its main socialist party rival.
• Prime Minister Brian Cowen's Fianna Fáil trails the opposition Fine Gael by 10% in Irish opinion polls.
• Spain's Popular Party holds a narrow 2% lead over the Socialist government.

Despite talk of a crisis for the Right, left wing parties trail their centre right opponents in Europe's five largest nations.

Click here for a PDF of the full ComRes briefing.

Click here for last month's briefing.

If you would like to subscribe to ComRes' European Opinion Briefing please email [email protected].

"Europe's left is failing to gain from capitalism's crisis"

In an interesting article for the FT, John Lloyd argues that the Left is not benefiting from the so-called 'crisis of capitalism' that is reportedly engulfing the world:

"In no big European country is the main party of the left, in or out of government, surging ahead. The Burson-Marsteller forecast for the European elections in June shows that the centre-right European People’s party will remain the largest group in the European parliament – even if the British Conservatives and the Czech ODS fulfil their aim to leave the EPP."

He summarises explanations offered by others:

"What has gone wrong for the left?

In a recent column on the Open Democracy website, Tibor Dessewffy, a Hungarian commentator, argues that “fears of terrorism, and subsequent anxieties caused by immigration and the sustainability issues of welfare and social systems, [have] brought the progressive left under increasing pressure”.

Wouter Bos, leader of the Dutch Labour party and deputy prime minister in the Netherlands’ right-left coalition government, said in a speech in London last year that these issues, and the pressures of globalisation, “reduce the effectiveness of the kind of policies we [the left] favour. It affects the cohesion which is our lifeblood. It hurts our international orientation that has always been the core to our mission”.

Olaf Cramme, director of the UK-based Policy Network, a centre-left global policy forum, believes that “despite the scale of the crisis of neo-liberalism, leftwing proposals about how to remake capitalism aren’t being received well. The centre left finds it difficult to offer a credible alternative to how to ensure wealth and security. In fact, in many countries, the conservative parties have been less enthusiastic about the growth of finance capitalism and tougher on regulating the financial sector than the left”.

There is a cloud of rhetoric on the end of capitalism – or, more often, “free-market capitalism”, as if that were a wholly separate entity. Beneath it, however, lies a public mood that is deeply sceptical of a left whose governing parties in the past decade have used the surpluses generated by successful finance capital to fund their social programmes, and, in general, is even more sceptical of a far left which apportions blame but has little experience of, or programmes for, government."

Conservative commentators would also note, however, that most of Europe's centre right leaders have moved towards the left during this period on issues of regulation, fiscal stimulus, industrial interventionism and protectionism.