Australia's new Liberal leader easily passes first elections test

Just days after Tony Abbott became leader of Australia's centre right opposition in controversial circumstances, his party has won two federal by-elections, caused by the retirement of two senior members of his own party. The Sydney Morning Herald described the twin victories as "comfortable":

"Just days after Mr Abbott won the Liberal leadership from Malcolm Turnbull, the party coasted to victory in the Melbourne seat of Higgins, vacated by former treasurer Peter Costello, and the north Sydney electorate of Bradfield, formerly held by Brendan Nelson. The solid performance surprised many who thought the Liberals might suffer a backlash due to Mr Abbott's decision to overhaul the party's climate changing policy, withdrawing support for the introduction of an emissions trading scheme (ETS), which is favoured by Labor."

The Age (another left-leaning newspaper) concluded that Tony Abbott's "opposition to Labor's emissions trading scheme has support in the conservative heartland."

The Australian's Editor-at-Large Paul Kelly profiles the unpredictable 'Abbot effect' here:

"This week Tony Abbott smashed the mould of Australian politics. With the opposition divided and behind, he is forcing Kevin Rudd to an election on climate change, the issue that is supposedly owned by the Labor Party. This is either brilliance or sheer folly. Abbott does not accept the orthodoxies that have governed politics during the Rudd ascendancy, and this makes him dangerous for both Labor and Liberal. Abbott is an unpredictable and elemental force who defies the modern political rule book. No adviser can tell Abbott what to say or how to say it. After being elected Liberal leader by surprise, Abbott spent the rest of week throwing political grenades -- supporting individual workplace contracts, backing a nuclear power debate and killing the emissions trading scheme -- while his colleagues held their breath wondering how the public would react."

Australia's Liberals remain in the doldrums but are fighting back at the state level

Five update observations on our sister party in Australia, the Liberal Party:

Current opinion polls suggest that Kevin Rudd will gain seats if he calls an election.  The Liberal Leader Malcolm Turnbull is seen by only 19% of Australians as best choice to be PM.  That compares to 66% for the incumbent Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.  Andrew Bolt charts Rudd's popularity here.

Liberals are suffering an exodus of talent but can't get rid of the bedblockers.  Key members of the Howard frontbench had already left the Parliament including former foreign minister Alexander Downer.  Former Treasurer Peter Costello has also announced he will be leaving elected politics (although speculation about his future intentions persists - not least because of the success of his memoirs).  Former Defence minister and briefly Liberal leader Brendan Nelson (pictured) has now announced his immediate retirement, precipitating an awkward by-election.  Unfortunately, however, there are some 'bedblockers' who are not retiring and preventing an influx of new talent.

A focus on Labor debt. Turnbull wants the issues of "debt and deficit" to be front and centre (read Christian Kerr in the Australian edition of The Spectator).  This video below is part of the Liberals' campaign and we've already noted their imitation of our baby-born-with-debt campaign:

Tensions on climate change. Rather than focusing on debt Turnbull is, for the moment, having to manage internal tensions over climate change.  He is attempting to amend Kevin Rudd's Emissions Trading legislation with a promise of something "greener, cheaper, smarter."  But some members of his own party and of the Liberals' traditional ally - the National Party - are completely opposed to the legislation.  The Australian's Paul Kelly reports here on how the Nationals are becoming strident in their opposition to Rudd's climate change proposals.

But at the state level the Liberals on the comeback trail. When John Howard was defeated as Prime Minister at the end of 2007 - and lost his own seat - the Liberals were out of power in all of Australia.  Unlike Britain, government at the state level matters in Australia but the Liberals had lost control in every state legislature during their extended period of domination at the federal level.  The Liberals won back control of Western Australia last September and the new Liberal-led administration remains popular.  Polls suggest the Liberals could gain control of Queensland and (more of a stretch) Tasmania.  Labor governments - like nearly all governments - have been in power for extended periods in these states and have become tired, complacent and often sleazy.  Most encouraging of all for the Liberals is polling suggesting that they could win back New South Wales, which includes Sydney. NSW is the biggest prize of all outside the federal government and a classic US-style "blue state".  Liberals don't win it very often.

Click to enlarge. PDF source.

 

The Australian Liberals and climate change policy

Tom Switzer, former adviser to Australian Liberal leader Brendan Nelson, has written for The Spectator's new Australia blog about the tensions within his party about green policies:

"Whereas once both leaders [Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull] were calling on Australians to pay higher energy prices to save the planet, they now warn of tougher economic times as the financial crisis enters a new and dangerous phase. Whereas once Australians wanted to do their bit to cut the gases our leaders claim cause global warming, we now panic about more visceral things like protecting their jobs, mortgages and superannuation. Whereas once Australians were cheering on the Prime Minister to lead the world on the environment, we now fear we’ll succumb to the financial contagion wreaking havoc all over the world. And whereas once the political debate was over co-ordinated global action to tackle global warming, it’s now over co-ordinated global action to stabilise the international financial system."

Read the full post here.

Malcolm Turnbull is new leader of Australia's Liberals

Within one hour of Brendan Nelson becoming John Howard's successor, 292 days ago, Malcolm Turnbull had, blogs Samantha Maiden, "stormed into the new Liberal leader’s parliamentary office... tearing into Nelson over his “funereal speech” and urging him to toughen up." Mr Nelson was never allowed another moment's peace and quiet during his turbulent tenure as leader.

Yesterday he called a surprise leadership election in the hope of throwing his year-long rival, Mr Turnbull off balance.  Today - with astonishing speed - his gamble failed and his fellow MPs chose Mr Turnbull to be their leader (by 45 votes to 41).  Mr Turnbull lost to Mr Nelson by 45 votes to 42 last year.  Mr Nelson has said that he will now return to the backbenches.

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation is calling it "The Turnbull Experiment".  Malcolm Bligh Turnbull is seen by many as a one man band and loose cannon.  Many of those 41 Liberal Party MPs who voted against him worried that he would be inadequately respectful of others' views - the reverse problem of Mr Nelson, a leader who had been too ready to agree with every colleague.

Turnbull is the son of a single father, a self-made multi-millionaire and an avowed moderniser, particularly on the issue of the environment.

He will be known to many Britons as the lawyer who successfully defended Peter Wright in the Spycatcher case and as a champion of making Australia a republic.

Australian PM, Kevin Rudd, has already challenged Mr Turnbull to help him lead the nation away from the monarchy.

> The Sydney Morning Herald have published this three minute photo and audio profile.

> PlayPolitical video: Mr Turnbull's victory press conference

> In the video below Mr Turnbull makes his first appearance at the Australian Parliament's daily ministerial questions:

Brendan Nelson calls 'put-up-or-shut-up' election

The Australian Liberals finally won some serious power yesterday when the Nationals agreed to form a coalition with them in the prosperous state of Western Australia.  Labor in WA called an early election and it has backfired spectacularly on them.

But the real breaking news from downunder is the national Liberal leader's decision to call a John Major-inspired, put-up-or-shut-up leadership election.

Mr Brendan Nelson has been subject to constant leadership speculation since assuming the post in the wake of John Howard's 2007 election defeat.

Two men have been most talked about as successors to Mr Nelson, former Treasurer Peter Costello and current Liberal Treasury spokesman, Malcolm Turnbull.

Mr Costello effectively ruled himself out of the race last week:

Likeliest to challenge Mr Nelson is Malcolm Turnbull.  Mr Turnbull would be more of a modernising candidate with a very strong commitment to environmentalism and party reform.

Brendan Nelson "impressed" with David Cameron

Australian Liberal leader Brendan Nelson was in London on Thursday and Friday.  His time in the UK included meetings with Australian business representatives, the Bank of England and Shadow Foreign Secretary William Hague.

Questioned by this website Mr Nelson said that he had "looked closely" at David Cameron's leadership of the UK Conservative Party and had been "impressed" with what he had seen.  The motorbike-riding Australian paid particular tribute to the bike-riding UK Tory's environmental policies (modified in recent months) and Mr Cameron's description of himself as a "Liberal Conservative".  Mr Nelson and Mr Cameron were unable to meet because the Tory leader was still on his summer holiday.

Since becoming Liberal leader in November 2007 Mr Nelson has launched a massive review of the policies of his predecessor, John Howard.  The most significant shifts have been:

1. Support for the Kyoto Treaty on global warming. Mr Nelson identified John Howard's opposition to Kyoto (targeted in this effective Labor general election ad) as one of three significant factors in his party's defeat by Kevin Rudd.  A prolonged period of drought has been popularly blamed on climate change.  The second factor in the defeat, said Mr Nelson, was simple longevity and the third, John Howard's labour market reforms.
2. Ending of the workplace reforms that many believe were the decisive factor in John Howard's undoing.
3. Support for the Australian withdrawal from Iraq.  Kevin Rudd's promise to quit Iraq was strongly opposed by John Howard but was endorsed by Mr Nelson, who had served as PM Howard's Defence Secretary.  Mr Nelson appointed Tom Switzer, former OpEd editor of The Australian newspaper and a staunch opponent of the Iraq war, as a key adviser.

The Liberals remain well behind Labor in national opinion polls and Mr Nelson has been subject to constant leadership speculation after only narrowing defeating the more modernising candidate, Malcolm Turnbull for the top Liberal job.

The Liberals' best hope of ending Labor's monopoly rule of federal and every state government had been thought to be looming elections in Western Australia.  The ruling Labor administration has, however, called early elections in a bid to take advantage of a forced change in the state's Liberal leadership.  Labor are expected to keep power.

Asked by conservativeinternational.com if the most significant lesson of the British Tories was that recovery took many years, Mr Nelson replied that he was "very determined" to be ready for victory at the next Australian general election and pointed to by-election swings in Victoria as evidence that his party was already advancing.  He said that his review of policy would be completed early so that he would have time to persuade the Australian electorate that the Liberals had changed and were ready to lead again.