By Andrew Marshall
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9.30pm Last post of the night (and AfD still at 4.8 percent with ARD and 4.9 per cent with ZDF (and with reports that opening of postals is not producing any big change in that).
So what does it mean for Cameron?
Well probably not that much. Politics is local, and the majority Eurosceptic strand in the Conservative parliamentary party is simply not in a mood to take many lessons from the CDU.
Whether it’s a CDU government or a grand coalition, Merkel’s success probably gives her government more wiggle room in terms of any renegotiation with the UK. She’s an inter-governmentalist, she doesn’t want direct election of the Commission President and such things, wouldn’t mind the Commission having its powers clipped, and will try and be somewhat helpful to Cameron. But there’s a huge gap between CDU and Conservative positions on much of the EU issue. Even with generational change in the CDU, which makes it somewhat different from the Kohl era, this is still Germany’s Europe party. Beyond the emotional aspect, most CDU politicians simply can’t conceive, never mind approve, of the scale of renegotiation that some/many in the Conservative Party would want. Britain didn't come up much in the campaign, and while CDU people would like it to stay, they fear it's gone too far and it's going.
The CDU may feel some concern about Euroscepticism at home with the AfD performance, but only to some extent. The AfD did well, but it depends a bit on how the AfD performs over the coming months. If it makes progress in state elections, then maybe the pressure will mount. More likely it will have difficulty maintaining momentum, and will have problems with infiltration from the extreme right. This is the history of protest parties to the right of the CDU.
The result is certainly a setback for the ultra federalist grouping such as former Belgian PM Guy Verhofstadt, who might have preferred a stronger SPD in order to push for Eurobonds, stronger banking union and so on.
Merkel does face the domestic challenge a possible third Greek bailout would pose, but she dominates the German and European scene. She will be Chancellor with a very stable majority, or maybe an absolute majority, until 2017, possibly beyond. Cameron might be out in 2015, he has a more troublesome coalition partner than Merkel might have, and crucially for his leverage, if he is defeated, the alternative is not necessarily worse for Merkel in terms of the UK renegotiation issue.
Big questions no doubt to be analysed over coming days. One thing to remember – Merkel does care about the European Parliament and the European People’s Party, not least because many people throughout her party do. She was dismayed, to say the very least, when Cameron withdrew the Conservatives from the EPP in the European Parliament. It looked an opportunist piece of appeasement when Cameron made it one of his leadership pledges. I know some others in this member state of the EU think very differently, but to me it has never looked more foolish than tonight.
8.30pm It’s coming down to the numbers. Assuming that the AfD is not represented (it’s still at 4.9%), then the CDU is very, very close to an overall majority – but might still be a seat or so short.
Merkel has ruled out a minority government, even if she’s only one seat short. There’s such an antipathy to uncertain majorities in Germany, going back to Weimar experience.
If the CDU/CSU have exactly half the seats – I just don’t know. More tomorrow. Probably it could argue that since it would elect the President of the Bundestag, it would have a casting vote, so a stable majority.
If she is a seat or two short, then I suspect she will push for a coalition partner. Neither the SPD nor the Greens will be keen (other than one or two people for whom it’s the last chance to get a cabinet post). But she will put on the pressure, especially on the SPD – she will say Germany needs a stable government, and the SPD is not being responsible if it doesn’t accept government responsibility. A CDU/Green coalition seems less likely, unless the leaders (note plural) of the Greens decide to take a huge leap in the dark to make themselves relevant and interesting. But probably the Green base wouldn’t wear it.
Things to watch:
Merkel didn’t really expect this result. She thought the FDP would make it back, and I suspect thought that the CDU would be at 38-39 per cent, not 42.3 per cent.
There are some “Euro critics” in the CDU parliamentary party (mild by UK standards, and not EU critics really), some of whom voted against the last Euro bailout. She won’t want to be dependent on them, and a grand coalition would make that easier. As previously posted, a single party government would also give the CSU sister party in Bavaria a lot more leverage, and its leader Seehofer is somewhat inconsistent and opportunist, at least in his political style.
If there is a one party government, then it will be a challenge to find experienced CDU faces for the cabinet, and some new people will come through. It will feel more like a generational change from day one.
The CDU won’t have any other coalition partner to blame if it governs alone. It will need to do some serious policy renewal in government, having fought the election without much obvious new policy.
If it is a grand coalition, the CDU will be a lot bigger than the SPD. Last time in 2005 the parties were the same size. That could make a grand coalition good for the CDU, but it will also be seen as principally a CDU government, for good or ill.
8pm Merkel completely rules out a government without a majority in the Bundestag.
One architect of Merkel’s victory is the CDU General Secretary Hermann Groehe. For British Conservatives, his biography feels like a return to YC-grounded figures such as David Hunt. Groehe joined the Junge Union, the youth wing, at school in 1975 and was its national chairman 1989-94, then working his way up in the party. You can argue whether political leaders in the 21st century should all have such a pure party background (and Ursula von der Leyen, a potential Merkel successor doesn’t) but it’s interesting. Especially given that the CDU has about 470,000 members and the CSU sister party in Bavaria 150,000.
Also worth noting that the CSU is already (having got 50 per cent in Bavaria tonight) rattling sabres a little (a single party government would give it more leverage). Seehofer, the party leader and Bavarian state premier called for "better communication" on issues such as the Euro bailout. There is also stalemate on the CSU's call for a motorway lorry toll for foreign lorries only, which Merkel has ruled out and is illegal under EU rules (because discriminatory).
7.30pm Merkel on TV round - very disappointed that FDP not represented in Bundestag, but says she has no direct responsibilty for the FDP result. She doesn't think anyone can reasonably expect her to even indirectly suggest people vote FDP rather than her CDU. Not saying anything today about coalitions, but she says, interestingly, that she assumes she will not have an absolute majority.
Inevitably, quite a lot of politicians of Merkel’s generation won’t be around so much in future, that's elections for you. Four names we might start to hear more about:
Hannelore Kraft, the popular SPD state premier of the biggest state North-Rhein-Westphalia. In her mid 50s, she would, for many, make a more credible “Chancellor candidate” than party leader Sigmar Gabriel, who will be working hard to stabilise the party and his own role.
Christian Lindner, the 34 year wunderkind of the FDP. He declined to stand for the party leadership a couple of years back, and then managed to turn around the FDP in the last North-Rhein-Westphalia elections. If anyone can now rescue the FDP in its death throes, then perhaps Lindner.
The Greens will be deeply disappointed, and most probably they will need to jump to another generation. There are several highly able MPs in the parliamentary group, but big questions about how the Greens now develop. They’ve been used to success – but there seems to be a limit to the market size for their high-tax, highly eco-prescriptive policies. Boris Palmer, the moderate young Green mayor of Tubingen will be one name being talked about.
Ilse Aigner – the outgoing agriculture cabinet minister has gone back, at her choice, to the Bavarian state parliament. Popular in the party and beyond – despite being a single 47 year old woman in Bavaria – she is speculated about as a successor to re-elected state premier Horst Seehofer within the next four years.
7.15pm Hessen party leaders all talking on TV, with difficult coalition discussions in the state after the CDU/FDP government lost its majority. There is a theoretical SPD-Green-Linke majority in the Hessen vote, but the SPD has ruled out working with the Left. Lots of recent history here - in 2008 SPD promised not to rely on the Left, then tried to form a minority state government with "toleration" by the Left. It failed as some SPD right wingers didn't vote for it, and was then punished deeply in the next election.
In federal election, CDU/CSU is a seat or so in range of an absolute majority - but its spokespeople being very careful what we say.
Hermann Otto Solms, one of the FDP's most senior economic/financial thinkers and Vice President of the Bundestag, now talking about how the FDP lost its brand as the party of clear, rational economics in the coalition. Expect the FDP to get a bit more Eurosceptic outside Parliament - but there's already a party for that in the AfD. The FDP was always a top heavy party of MPs, regional MPs etc, without such a deep activist base, and it will be a huge challenge for it to get used to "extra parliamentary campaigning".
7.00pm Noting some of the comments this blog has attracted, it will be interesting to see how the AfD gets on, whether in the Bundestag or not. In particular it is clearly is having some challenges in preventing infiltration from the extreme right, however impressive and honourable Lucke and others in the party are.
While the CDU sits in a different group in the European Parliament, it is worth remembering that it is the Conservative Party's sister party in the International Democrat Union, the big family of broadly centre-right parties worldwide. So no doubt official congratulations will be going over, and hopefully we'll be learning something of how you get to 42.5 per cent as a governing party. Let's hope there is some serious CDU representation at the Conservative conference in Manchester in a week.
6.45pm Just a word on the FDP. Its departure, for now, from the Bundestag, is bad news for Germany and particularly for free market economics in German politics. Although it has different strands, for most of the last 60 years it has been a classic liberal party, with a strong free market emphasis, as well as civic and human rights liberalism. Yes, it was in coalition with Brandt and Schmidt in the 1970s - but in those years it was centre stage in combating far left terrorism, and in backing NATO's policy on cruise missiles, which was so critical in winning the cold war. It made as well as huge contributions to European union. Figures like Theodor Heuss, Germany's first post war President, foreign minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher, and free market cabinet minister Otto Graf Lambsdorff among others were critical to Germany's peace, security and economic success over the decades. British conservatives, who see the FDP as slippery liberals, ignore the fact that many British conservatives, especially the Cameroons, are a lot closer to the thinking of the average FDP MP or activist than they would be to CDU leaders and members.
6.30pm Some of the percentages in this election are rather closer to 1953 or 1957 than anything else - though clearly the parties then had distinctive class bassed "milieu" in a completely different society. But have a look at this chart of German election results over the last 60 years.
In the moment of Merkel's triumph, it is just worth remembering that a lot of talk in Germany, even within the CDU, is that it has become a fragile construction that might not last well. Too dependent on Merkel, no strong potential successors left, and a shift to the centre with "a social democratisation" that will make right wing voters uneasy. If there is a single party CDU government, a new generation of cabinet members and regional leaders (as important in Germany as most cabinet members) will need to start to come through, and the CDU will need to find ways to reinvigorate itself in government.
6.15pm Leaders across CDU and SPD not saying much at all about coalitions. If the CDU is only a seat or two short, the rationale for grand coalition is more difficult. Some Green and SPD leaders would love to be back in a cabinet, but neither party can imagine that being in a coalition with such a dominant CDU would be helpful with their core voters - especially with the Left party active on their left.
The latest estimate of seats in fact gives the CDU/CSU 304 seats out of 606 (assuming AfD not represented). CDU increase in vote was a stunning 8.5 per cent. The past CDU leader who secured an increase larger than that was one Konrad Adenauer in 1953.
In the Hessen state parliament, it looks like CDU is short of majority, and needs Greens or SPD. At a state level there have been CDU-Green coalitions, with some success, and core voters seem less likely to punish their parties for entering unusual coalitions than at a federal level.
6pm Noting some of the comments below - the 6pm German time exit poll was 50,000 people, and we are now getting estimates which are increasingly based on sampling of actual votes being counted, and increasingly local partial results. The percentages will not change massively.
6pm Merkel on stage at Konrad Adenauer Haus. Can't get the applause to stop. Possible long term successor Ursula von der Leyen standing with others nearby. Merkel now thanks all her colleagues, and mentions her husband standing in the back, who gets a huge cheer. Her speech, like the election campaign, doesn't add much or say anything about coalitions. But she's up there with Adenauer and Kohl.
Latest estimates could give CDU/CSU 303 out of 606 seats - when the AfD doesn't get 5 per cent (it's now 4.9 per cent). FDP is definitely out.
SPD leaders appear in Willy Brandt Haus, seeking to look united. Steinbruck moves off into retirement, party leader Sigmar Gabriel speaks first - he now needs to work out a strategy for the party, and fight off others in the party who question his style and suitablity to be the next chancellor candidate.
The CSU looks to have got 50 per cent in Bavaria. However a grand coalition is never good for influence of CSU in the cabinet - fewer cabinet members to give them.
5.45pm Left leader Gregor Gysi delighted that the Left party is now the third strongest political force in Germany. The fact the Left has become established as a major party in the former DDR is something that the SPD no doubt will feel it has to tackle in the coming period. (Interestingly, the CDU was much more practical in taking in local leaders and activists with history in the old DDR CDU, which was part of the SED power machine - whereas the SPD was in the early 1990s rather more purist in not accepting people with questionable backgrounds. And perhaps now paying the price in that the Left party is deeply established in eastern Germany.)
AfD leader Bernd Lucke speaks to his supporters, telling them they've made a difference and can do more. But fact remains that when a new party doesn't get into the Bundestag, it is difficult to build a base. In the past, parties like the NPD and Republikaner (though different from the AfD) have tried and failed to crack the 5 per cent to secure parliamentary seats. So far the CDU/CSU have fought off any challengers on their right - the next four years will be fascinating.
Exit polls show 22 per cent of AfD voters came from the CDU, with 26 per cent previous non voters, other parties smaller.
5.30pm CDU Saarland Minister President Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer saying party will need to discuss coalition options, not ruling out CDU-Green but stressing differences with Greens. Green general secretary Steffi Lemke not quite ruling out coalition, but also emphasising difficulties.
Estimates looking like they are stabilising, not much hope for either FDP or AfD of getting to 5 per cent.
5.15pm Happy scenes at anti-Euro AfD election party, in a Berlin hotel (no HQ as yet), even though the first estimate keeps it at 4.8 per cent, so just out of the Bundestag.
5.10am SPD General Secretary Andrea Nahles puts a brave fact on a 3 per cent increase in the SPD's vote. Still the second worst result for the SPD in the history of the Federal Republic.
Christian Lindner, the 34 year old likely future leader of the FDP, outlining how the party can continue to work for free market economics and a liberal society, after being thrown out of the Bundestag for the first time ever.
5.07pm CDU leader in North Rhein Westphalia Armin Laschet: fantastic result for Merkel and the CDU, much bigger than SPD and Greens together, amazing we are just short of absolute majority. Still hopeful that the FDP might end up at 5 per cent.
5.05pm Hessen state exit poll: FDP also out of state parliament, CDU largest party but will need SPD or Greens in coalition.
5.00pm Exit poll: CDU/CSU 42.5 per cent; SPD 26.5 per cent; Greens 8 per cent; FDP 4.5 per cent; Left 8.6 per cent; AfD 4.8 per cent. Stunning result for Merkel, just short of absolute majority, but with FDP out of Bundestag could be a grand coalition with CDU and SPD. AfD not so far from the 5 per cent to get seats. Very disappointing for Greens, and SPD were hoping for a bit more.
4.40pm Live coverage under way on public broadcasters ARD and ZDF, have got both of those running on internet. ZDF filling in time with interviews of political leaders by school children. Merkel expected momentarily at CDU HQ at Konrad Adenauer Haus in Berlin.
4pm In terms of the constituency seats (the list seats forming the other half) at present the CDU/CSU has 218, the SPD 64, the Left 16 and the Greens 1. The liberal FDP has none, hasn't had any in fact since the early 1950s.
3.30pm The respected weekly Die Zeit reports that 27 per cent of German political journalists are Green supporters, 16 per cent SPD, 9 per cent CDU/CSU, 7 per cent FDP and The Left 4 per cent (36 per cent claim to be non-party). But the publication makes the point that this support didn’t help the Greens one jot in the recent paedophilia controversy surrounding the party.
3p, High turnout reported in many Länder (states) – but that’s a very common thing to hear at this point in an election day, not clear if there’s any firm data on that. Meanwhile just to add - there’s no tactical voting in Germany, but some “strategic” voting, given the known views of the different parties about coalitions. Die Zeit, which is a pretty respected and independent-minded weekly, suggests four iron rules for strategic voters:
Andrew Marshall is Managing Director of Cognito Media and a Camden Conservative Councillor
A few historical facts as we wait for results:
Andrew Marshall is Managing Director of Cognito Media and a Camden Conservative Councillor
Many readers of Conservative Home have been following the German election closely, but here are a some points before my live blog for this site this evening that may be of interest:
Coalitions and majorities: There’s a very strong antipathy to minority governments in Germany, dating back to Weimar experience, and reflected in the German consitution (which for example states that a government can only be replaced by a “constructive vote of no confidence” with a named new Chancellor). So if Merkel and her liberal FDP partners are just two or three seats short, don’t expect her to form a minority coalition, as a British leader might. Assume there will be negotiations to form a majority coalition government – there’s never been a minority government in the history of the Federal Republic (in other words a government whose coalition doesn’t have a majority of seats). There are rumours that the Linke might want to “tolerate” a minority SPD-Green coalition, but given the SPD’s vehement denials, this seems virtually inconceivable this time around (though there are wild rumours some Linke moderate MPs from the former DDR might join the SPD post-election if SPD/Greens were just short).
Timing of results: We will no doubt get some rumours of exit polls on Twitter over the course of the afternoon. Then we’ll get the exit polls on public broadcasters ZDF and ARD (and private broadcaster RTL) at 1700 London time. From then on we’ll get updated “estimates” every 15 to 30 minutes for the next three or four hours. These estimates are based on sampling of real votes as they are counted, and as the night goes on they are increasingly accurate. Then at around 1.30-2.30am we’ll get provisional official results. Most of the time, the exit polls are pretty good – in 2009 the CDU started off at 33.5 per cent and ended the evening at 33.8 per cent, while the FDP went from 15 per cent to 14.6 per cent. But if it’s close, things can change over the evening – in 2002 the CDU/SCU/FDP looked to have won at 1800, but in the end Schröder pulled off another term.
It is also worth saying that in 2009 and 2005 the polls, as opposed to the exit polls, were not that accurate, with CDU underperformance of 6 per cent in 2005 and 2 per cent in 2009 compared to the final pre-election day poll averages.
The 5 per cent Clause and the FDP: the FDP is hovering around 5-6 per cent and if it gets under 5 per cent, then for the first time since the founding of the state, it won’t be in the Bundestag, and its survival as a party will be in serious doubt. But the FDP has been close to the 5 per cent hurdle before and has pulled through, sometimes due to “borrowed” votes (“Leihstimmen”) from CDU voters. For real geeks, it’s worth noting that if a party wins three or more constituency seats, it gets seats allocated on the basis of its percentage, even if only 4 per cent say. The FDP hasn’t won a constituency seat since the 50s, so that won’t save them, but the Linke won 16 constituency seat in the former DDR last time, and therefore the 5 per cent clause holds few fears for it as a part (and it’s polling 8-10 per cent)
Overhang and compensatory seats: The actual number of Bundestag members is not fixed, due to the complexities caused by the mixed constituency/list system. If a party in a state wins more direct constituency seats than its share of the second list votes would entitle it to, then it gets to keep these extra “overhang” seats. This led in recent elections, with a fragmenting party system, to the phenomenon of the so-called “negative weight of a vote” – in other words a party is worse off in seats because it got extra votes. This happened to parties in eight Bundesländer in 2009. In Bremen, if the SPD had got 255 votes fewer, it would have got one more seat. And if the CDU in Baden-Württemberg had got 59,253 votes fewer, it would have got one more seat. This bizarre situation led to a successful case before the constitutional court, and so this election is under a slightly revised system, in which “overhang” seats continue to exist, but would also be balanced by “compensatory” seats to avoid any “negative vote weight” phenomenon. I hope that’s all as clear as the Schleswig-Holstein question. Essentially it all matters if the numbers in the Bundestag are very tight.
The Bundesrat and Hessen: The current coalition does not enjoy a majority in the upper house, the Bundesrat, which represents the state or Länder governments, thus necessitating a considerable degree of compromise over many financial and domestic matters. The state of Hessen is also voting today for the state parliament, with votes there being counted after the federal vote. The current CDU/FDP coalition in Hessen might well lose to SPD/Green, but that would not alter the arithmetic in the Bundesrat. But it’s worth noting that a CDU/SPD Grand Coalition would also not have a natural majority in the upper house (largely because some states have got SPD/Green state governments – in the Bundesrat the votes are a block vote by the state government, so in that situation the local SPD would have to negotiate with their Green partners on how to vote the state’s votes in the Bundesrat.) So essentially, no possible federal coalition will have a majority in the Bundesrat.
By Harry Phibbs
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Congratulations to Erna Solberg who has been elected Norway's second female Prime Minister and the first Conservative Prime Minister since 1990.
She is nicknamed Iron Erna - a comparison, of course, with Margaret Thatcher.
The Norwegian Conservatives are a sister party of the British Conservatives as members of the International Democrat Union.
What can we learn from Norway?
Happily there is an English translation of the Norwegian Conservative Manifesto and it includes a number of themes which British Conservatives would recognise.
It says the new Government will "reduce state ownership of Norwegian industry."
There is a section on tax cuts:
The Conservative Party will progressively reduce direct and indirect taxes that weaken the motivation to work, and that curb investment in Norwegian jobs.
Specifically it calls for "gradually reduce and eventually abolish wealth tax" to "abolish inheritance tax" and to "reduce the tax on low and regular incomes."
It also pledged to:
Make it more financially rewarding to go from state benefits into work, for example by introducing a time-limited job-related tax deduction...
Raise the starting point for higher-rate income tax, so that people on regular incomes do not have to pay tax at the higher rate...
Use the taxation policy to make environmentally friendly performance profitable.
The education policy confirms Goveism as a growing export industry:
Ensure access to establish and run publicly financed private and religious schools as an alternative to state schools, and implement an Independent Schools Act where the goals requirement is replaced by a requirement for content and quality. Schools which meet the conditions shall have the right to accreditation unless, following a full assessment, such accreditation has significant negative consequences for the state- school provision for students. Private and religious schools shall not be permitted to pay a dividend to their owners.
There is a priority placed on tackling drug addiction:
The waiting time for treatment for drug and alcohol abusers is too long. The Conservative Party wants more appropriate and fair treatment for people who suffer from drug or alcohol dependency.
Health policy stresses more choice, more transparency and less bureaucracy:
Close down the regional health authorities and replace them with better national steering of health policy, while at the same time giving the hospitals greater freedom and responsibility within the framework of a national health and hospital plan.
Ensure an efficient flow of information on the individual patient while also exercising adequate protection of privacy.
Carry out extensive investigations of quality at the hospitals – for example mortality rates, re-operations and re-hospitalizations.
Ensure the transparency of quality investigations, and make these investigations publicly available..
Introduce free choice of treatment at the government’s expense so that those who need the required healthcare assistance can be offered treatment as quickly as possible.
The section on railways backs privatisation, competition and a new high speed "if profitable."
Design all new railway lines for 250 km/h or higher speeds and eventually build a high speed railway network if this proves to be profitable.
Introduce competition for the operation of passenger trains on more lines..
There is a bold promise for reducing red tape:
Implement measures that together reduce by 25 per cent the costs to industry of adhering to the requirements set by government.
Raise the audit exemption threshold.
Further develop the public reporting portal Altinn and have an objective that businesses shall only need to report the same information once to the public authorities...
Permit Sunday opening for shops.
The section on "Migration and Inclusion" says:
Ensure integration into Norwegian society as quickly as possible through language and knowledge testing for everyone applying for Norwegian citizenship.
Survey children’s language skills and give language training to children with poor Norwegian language skills before they start school. This service will also encompass children who do not attend kindergarten.
In some respects Norwegian Conservatism is a milder brand than Australian version - which triumphed at the polls just a couple of days earlier.
The Norwegian Conservatives, for instance, accept the orthdoxoes about climate change. There will also be some dismay that the Norwegian Conservatives favour membership of the EU - although this is symbolic as they accept it would require a referendum and that there is no prospect of it being approved.
Yet globalisation does provide opportunities for Conservative policy makers. We can learn from the Norwegians and the Australians just as they can learn from us and from each other.
By Paul Goodman
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Few attempts are made, either on the left or the right, to read across what's happening in the rest of Europe and apply it to Britain. That far more are made when it comes to America or Canada or Australia is a tribute to the spread of English and the power of the Anglosphere - as an idea, at any rate. During the past 25 years or so, the Left has gazed abroad to study the electoral success of Bill Clinton and the Right to ponder that of George W.Bush, at least until the Iraq War. In recent years, we have also had a long look at Stephen Harper's success in Canada: Downing Street aides have visited there to study his success in winning ethnic minority votes. And today, our eyes will turn to Australia. Tony Abbott is an old friend of the site (by which I mean that he's a friend of Tim Montgomerie's: I haven't met him, though I hope to), and ConservativeHome congratulates him warmly on his victory.
I can add nothing to the comprehensive study of Abbott which Tim published on the site last week, and am thus automatically in the position of many Tory MPs and party members. Perhaps the best answer to my question is: "not much" - but some of those members and MPs will be following the news from Australia, will have done a bit of reading up on Abbott, and will draw three conclusions. First, they will note that, like Harper, Abbott began on the right and moved to the centre (have a look at his parental leave plans), whereas David Cameron is, in important ways, doing the reverse (on immigration, on welfare, on an EU referendum - the so-called "Crosbyisation" of his leadership). Second, they will clock that Abbott is a Christian, specifically Catholic, conservative, with a strong commitment to social justice and, like Harper, a sense of outreach to minority groups. Tim wrote about Abbott's commitment to aboriginal Australians and his wife's to abused women. That looks and sounds a lot like the compassionate conservatism that Tim has done much to propagate here.
Third, British Tories will be struck by how similar the core of Abbott's appeal is to Harper's and Bush's and, moving back in time, to John Howard's and Ronald Reagan's and Margaret Thatcher's. His main pitch is to Australia's equivalent of the latter's C2s and today's strivers - the hard-pressed voters who are well represented, here, in the northern and midlands marginals that Cameron must hold and win next time round. Abbott's no-nonsense message to them - lower taxes, less immigration, better infrastructure and no carbon tax - sounds very like the conservatism for Bolton West which this site is pushing. However, it does sound distinct from parts of the Prime Minister's original programme in opposition, which was more friendly to green taxes and suspicious of infrastructure commitments (which is part of the reason why no decision on airport expansion has been taken).As I say, there's no automatic read-across from one country to another. But if he isn't doing so already, shouldn't Cameron ask himself if there are lessons to be learned from Abbott's heartening victory?
By Tim Montgomerie in Sydney
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I’m jumping the gun a bit. Australia doesn’t even vote until tomorrow but it’ll be one of the biggest shocks in the country’s electoral history if the incumbent Labor prime minister, Kevin Rudd, survives.
Here are ten things you should know about Tony Abbott, leader of the Conservative Party’s sister party in Australia.
1. He will defeat a government that has enjoyed good economic times: In the last year Australia has grown by 2.6% (easily enough to put a smile on George Osborne’s face). That’s the 22nd successive year of growth. Australia isn’t even close to losing its triple A status from ratings agencies. All governments get ejected eventually but, six years ago, Kevin Rudd led Labor to power as one of Australia’s most popular ever leaders. Rudd then boasted he was the prime minister who saved his country from the global recession and this resource-rich country did escape negative growth. But, according to every poll, Labor loses tomorrow’s general election and it will lose badly.
2. He’s a model Leader of the Opposition: Do you remember when David Cameron promised to end Punch and Judy politics? Even before he became leader of Australia’s Liberal Party (the Tories’ sister party, led by John Howard until ’07), Abbott embraced Punch’s pugilism. He ousted Malcolm Turnbull, his Liberal predecessor, who was preparing to back Rudd’s climate change agenda. Since becoming Leader of the Opposition in 2009 he has opposed Labor’s expensive carbon policies and its failure to control immigration. Labor became incredibly unpopular – first dumping Rudd for Gillard and then, hilariously, Gillard for Rudd.
3. His four-fold message has focused on immigration, tax, infrastructure and above all, the carbon tax: Most politicians get bored with repeating the same message. Pundits needing to fill their pages or broadcast slots with ‘new news’ certainly do. Abbott doesn’t get bored. A man famous for his physical fitness he has the stamina to conquer arduous bike journeys and marathons. Knowing that voters only start to hear a message when politicians are sick to death of hearing themselves repeat it for the squillionth time he has stuck relentlessly to four big themes: Scrap the carbon tax; Stop the boats (via which illegal immigrants enter Australia); Cut taxes; and, more recently, Build new roads.
4. He’s a social conservative, not a social reactionary: His Catholicism has led him to take conservative positions on abortion and homosexuality and that frightens social liberals. Abbott’s personal views do not automatically become his political views, however. When he was health minister he did not ban or restrict abortion. Today he opposes gay marriage but his lesbian sister has campaigned for him and testified to his personal support for her. The most obvious fruit of his faith is his compassionate work. Every year he raises funds for charities with his sports activities. He spends a week with aboriginal Australians, undertaking community work. He and his wife support a shelter for abused women.
5. He’s not a shrink-the-state libertarian: If Abbott appeals to traditionalist conservatives on issues like immigration, climate change and tax he worries state minimalists. Ronald Reagan (who actually maintained a pretty sizeable government himself) once joked that one of the biggest ever lies was ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help you’. That’s not Abbott’s view. He has said that market liberalism is not the only conservative value. After announcing a subsidy for a chocolate factory in a hard-pressed part of Australia he insisted that jobs and fairness were also integral to conservatism. His colleagues joke that when he was Health Minister in the Howard government he couldn’t open his mouth without arguing for AUS$10 million of extra spending. In this campaign he has promised one of the most generous parental leave programmes in the world and has defended doing so by arguing that the family deserves steadfast support from conservatives. Joe Hockey, Abbott’s finance minister, is more of an economic liberal and will ensure that an LNP government does move towards budget surplus but few should expect a radical shrinkage of Australian government.
6. He’ll be an Anglosphere prime minister: Rudd attacked Abbott for his obsession with Britain and the Anglosphere in his autobiographical book, ‘Battlelines’. During the campaign Abbott has attempted to combat this by promising to visit all of the Asian region’s capitals before visiting London or Washington, notably Beijing. Few doubt where Abbott’s heart lies, however. Educated at Oxford and a devotee of Margaret Thatcher he’s a monarchist and Eurosceptic. He reportedly hates Theodore Dalrymple’s books because he hates their gloomy portrait of a Britain that he so loves. Australia is a medium-sized power but Abbott promises to restore defence spending to 2% of national income and maintain – without increasing – aid spending.
7. He has learnt pragmatism: He’s nicknamed the ‘Mad Monk’ – partly because he once pursued the idea of a Catholic vocation but also because of his combative style and his strongly-held views on social policy. In his earlier life he was heavily influenced by the Catholic thinker "Bob" Santamaria. His immersion in Catholic Social Teaching almost led him into the Labor party and in his support for government-funded solidarity policies that influence is still evident. If Abbott was ever ‘Mad’ he’s less mad today! Close observers say he has learnt pragmatism – partly from his career’s mistakes. He is close to Mark Textor, the polling half of the Crosby-Textor agency, and carefully studies public opinion.
8. No, he isn’t stoopid: Abbott is well known for his streetwise talk and aggressive parliamentary style. Some interpret his populist streak as a sign of limited intelligence and take his occasional Bushisms as proof of their suspicions. Abbott is no fool, however. This Oxford-educated Rhodes scholar writes nearly all of his big speeches – a rare thing for a contemporary politician. Unable to fault his grasp of policy in parliament his opponents have resorted to cheap sliming. He has been accused of misogyny, a charge that caught the British media’s attention but failed to gain traction in Australia.
9. He devotes enormous time to party management: Additional to the last point, one of his great skills is party management. Modern party leaders have to be good on the telly, masters of strategy and policy and possess charisma. Because of fracturing on the Right and Left, increasingly important is party management. He manages a party with enormous breadth. There’s Malcolm Turnbull and the economic and social liberals on one side and Barnaby Joyce and the economic nationalists and social traditionalists on the other. He also tolerates difference. When state premiers from his own party take a different view his response, to use an Ozzy colloquialism, is ‘no dramas’. His internal coalition has been incredibly disciplined over the last few years. Even when Rudd ousted Julia Gillard in June and Abbott’s opinion poll lead (temporarily) evaporated there was no panic. Abbott follows John Howard’s 50/50 rule – spend at least as much time looking after your existing supporters as wooing floating voters.
10. We don’t exactly know what kind of prime minister he’ll be: Abbott has no great plan to reverse Australia’s declining productivity or growth in entitlements. He will aim, like his mentor John Howard, to be boringly competent rather than revolutionary. He will also have to remain or become even more collegiate. Many colleagues still resent the way they feel they were bounced into the expensive parental leave policy. Rudd ultimately failed because he thought he knew it all and failed to be collegiate. Tony Abbott can’t afford to make the same mistake. My hunch is that he won’t.
By Andrew Gimson
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Angela Merkel is taking emergency action to try to avert the rise of Germany's new eurosceptic party. Allies of the Chancellor last night indicated via Bloomberg News that if elected to a third term on 22 September, she will "curtail the reach of European Union rulemakers" and align herself "with British Prime David Cameron's fight to claw back powers".
Bloomberg cites "officials and lawmakers in Berlin and Brussels" who say Merkel is "likely to air proposals to return some commission powers to national capitals and streamline others" once the German general election on 22 September, in which she is expected to win a third term in office, is "out of the way".
According to Markus Ferber, an MEP from the Chancellor's Bavarian allies, the Christian Social Union, "Merkel's playing a new tune. It's about keeping the UK in the EU by returning some commission powers and that overlaps with Germany's aim to forge a stronger euro area."
All this is good news for Cameron: it makes his European strategy more convincing if he can say that he will be doing it in alliance with Berlin. And it delights the Fresh Start group of British eurosceptic MPs.
One of Fresh Start's members, Andrea Leadsom, who led a recent delegation to Berlin, told me the Germans had told her there was "nothing we won't do to try to keep Britain in the EU" - though they did also say they are not prepared to reopen the EU treaties.Leadsom believes Merkel is very much "in the market for reform", and has signalled a willingness to agree to "absolutely game-changing" and "really quite momentous" reforms including the introduction of a double majority lock, which will prevent non-euro members from being outvoted by euro members.
But British eurosceptics should be wary of becoming jubilant.
Merkel has clearly done this for domestic reasons. Her aim is not to support British euroscepticism: it is to defeat German euroscepticism. She has become worried that the new eurosceptic party which is contesting the German elections, Alternative für Deutschland (Alternative for Germany, or AfD), will clear the five per cent hurdle and win parliamentary seats.
In its admirably brief manifesto, AfD demands an orderly dissolution of the euro and the reintroduction of national currencies (or else the creation of smaller and more stable currency unions). It calls for a Europe of sovereign states which share a common market.
Merkel will not go anything like as far as that. European politicians often make eurosceptic noises in order to get elected. Merkel's own predecessor, Gerhard Schröder, did this in a very successful way in Germany, as did Jacques Chirac in France.
Neither Schröder nor Chirac then pursued a eurosceptic policy. Nor will Merkel. It would be astonishing if she went much beyond a change of tone supported by token measures.
The real significance of what she is doing is that AfD now has to be taken seriously. Before starting a visit during the last few days to Berlin, I had resolved not to pay too much attention to this new party, which was founded earlier this year and was standing at a mere two or three per cent in the opinion polls. I reminded myself that British eurosceptics often get over-excited by signs that German eurosceptics are at last making headway.
But on my first morning in Berlin, I visited my old friend Tilman Fichter, a veteran Social Democrat and a penetrating observer of German politics. He astonished me by saying: “I think AfD will get into Parliament. I think they will get seven to nine per cent of the vote.”
When I objected that the opinion polls put AfD at around a third of this level, Fichter said: “People don’t tell the pollsters how they will really vote. The lie is the only weapon of a weak people.”The pollsters themselves admit that they may be under-reporting support for AfD. Manfred Güllner, head of Forsa, told Bloomberg: “I’m unsure as to what’s really below the visible tip of the iceberg. We have them at 2-3 percent in the polls right now, but I don’t know what’s below the waterline.”
Güllner explained why he cannot tell what will happen: “The AfD pushes into a segment of German society that has always been somewhat difficult, a segment of the middle class that worries about losing its status, that feels crushed between the top and bottom. Many of them don’t talk to us.” But in Forsa's most recent poll, published on Wednesday of this week, AfD had moved up to four per cent.
I heard of another poll which put AfD on 8 per cent in its raw data: a figure which was then drastically reduced because the party had never stood before.
Nobody knows what will happen on 22 September, by which time opinion may have shifted from wherever it is now. Although many Germans opposed the introduction of the euro, many of them also reckon it is now too late to go back to the mark, and continue to believe that if only the Greeks and others can be subjected to strict enough rules, all may yet be well.
But if I were a German voter, I think I would be infuriated by the refusal of the two main parties even to have a proper debate about Europe, and would be tempted to express my anger by voting AfD.
Part of the trouble is that as far as the euro is concerned, the Christian Democrats, led by Chancellor Angela Merkel, and the Social Democrats, whose candidate for the chancellorship is Peer Steinbrück, are essentially on the same side.
It is fruitless to complain that they have made a tacit agreement not to mention AfD. What is really outrageous is that they refuse to discuss in any but the vaguest terms the measures to support the single currency which are going to be needed during the next four years.
Merkel has made a convincing show of reluctance to bail out the weaker members, and has driven some hard bargains, but in the end she has done whatever is needed to keep Greece and other struggling countries in the euro, and the Social Democrats have voted for these measures.
Bernd Lucke, the economist who leads AfD, is a man without charisma. But he has made with admirable clarity, and evident honesty, the arguments for leaving the euro.
It is impossible to dismiss Lucke as either a demagogue or a comedian. We are not dealing here with a Jörg Haider or a Beppe Grillo.
Lucke himself angrily dismisses any attempt to bracket AfD with Eurosceptic parties in other countries, including UKIP. He does not want Germany to leave the EU, and speaks well of David Cameron rather than Nigel Farage. Studious moderation is Lucke’s thing: he knows that his opponents find his arguments too strong to tackle, and will instead attempt to discredit him personally, by positing links between him and real or supposed extremists. As we reported on Wednesday, AfD has been the target of sustained abuse and indeed of physical attack.
When Handelsblatt, a serious business paper, put it to Lucke in an interview published on 30 August that if the German mark were reintroduced, it would rise in value, which would damage German exports, Lucke replied: “But imports would become cheaper. That would benefit businesses as well as households, which would become richer in real terms. That would increase domestic demand, from which the economy would benefit.”
The notion, often peddled by supporters of the euro, that German industry can only succeed thanks to an artificially low exchange rate, does not survive scrutiny. Month by month the situation becomes more dangerous. Fixed exchange rates, allied to great divergences in economic performance, have already led to intolerable levels of unemployment in the weaker countries. Support from German taxpayers has become indispensible, but German politicians know that to campaign for more help to be sent to Greece and the rest would be electoral suicide. So the politicians lie about the future by keeping quiet about it.
Merkel is instead trying to anaesthetise her own people, and is very good at it. She has made this one of the least exciting election campaigns in German history. Many Germans will vote for Merkel precisely because she is the most soothing candidate: the one who makes it easiest to avoid the agony of admitting that they are going to be forced to dig deep into their own pockets in order to bail out a bunch of Mediterranean spendthrifts.
At the top level, AfD is stuffed full of professors. Below that, its membership of 16,000 is a mixed bag. In some regions there has been severe infighting, while in others there is a good level of organisation.
In Berlin, the fourth person on AfD’s party list is Hugh Bronson, who is a British as well as a German citizen. Bronson, 52, has a doctorate in film adaptation from the University of East Anglia and currently teaches at one of Berlin’s language schools. He joined AfD on 10 March this year and was adopted as a candidate on 27 April after giving what he describes as “the speech of my life – I was so angry – there was so much infighting going on”.
While out canvassing, he found himself next to some Greens handing out literature with the words “Here is something green”. Bronson started handing out his literature with the words “Here is something blue”, which enraged the Greens: “I’ve never seen a bunch of people so humourless.”
When accused of being a nationalist or a racist, Bronson enjoys switching from German into English and pointing out that he has two passports. This political beginner will only get into Parliament if AfD polls about 11 or 12 per cent in Berlin, which strikes me as unlikely. Bronson himself says: “I have no doubt the AfD will cross the five per cent hurdle. The word on the street can’t be that wrong. On the one hand this has been the most boring election campaign I’ve ever witnessed. On the other hand it is the most unpredictable.”
While living in Berlin in the 1990s, I came to believe that German euroscepticism, defined as the belief that Germany is better off being ruled by Germans than from a city in Belgium, would in the end prove decisive. But I also recognised that this temperamental preference might take decades to impinge on a ruling class which is terrified of sounding nationalist. Whatever else happens on 22 September, it seems clear that Merkel will remain Chancellor, at the head of some sort of coalition consisting of conventional pro-European politicians.
But if AfD clears the five-per-cent hurdle, the monopoly so long enjoyed by those politicians will at last have been broken, and the long overdue argument can begin about whether the euro is the right way to build Europe.
By Tim Montgomerie in Melbourne
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Kevin Rudd first became Australia’s prime minister in 2007 after a presidential campaign built almost entirely around his then stratospheric popularity. He enjoyed approval ratings of over seventy per cent but the public acclaim went to his head. He started running his country’s government and his Labor party in a dictatorial style. His colleagues came to detest him and three years ago Julia Gillard toppled him and became Australia’s first female leader.
In a play about this political assassination Ms Gillard is portrayed as a brutal killer. She stabs her victim repeatedly in a determination to ensure he can never live to fight another day. At the end of the drama Rudd is laying at the centre of the stage. As the curtain falls the audience sees the bloodied body twitch. Rudd was not so dead after all and earlier this year, on 27th June, he turned the tables on Ms Gillard and toppled her.
Yesterday, at a Brisbane campaign launch (Times £ report), a very lively Mr Rudd presented himself as the comeback kid. ''I have been in tougher spots before,” he said, “and come back from behind.'' Gillard was not at the event. She has hardly said a word since Rudd got his revenge. Her allies won’t stay silent if, as every opinion poll and pundit predicts, Rudd loses.
The experience will be instructive to all politicians in all parts of the world who think that leadership switcheroos equal a winning strategy. A party that was heading for a landslide defeat turned to Rudd in desperation, in the hope that he might recapture the magic of 2007. For a period the election race did tighten but there is now some speculation that Rudd might even lose his own seat. The latest polls suggest a 54% to 46% lead for the conservative opposition.In an article for The Age newspaper Brian Costar attempts to “debunk the myth of the electoral messiah”. He notes how changing the leader has become incredibly fashionable in Australian politics:
“Between 1949 and 1972 the big parties (Liberal, Labor and the Nationals' forerunner, the Country Party) had 11 federal leaders among them, of whom only one, John Gorton, was removed by his own party. But between 1972 and 2013 the same parties had 29 leaders, 15 of whom (or a shade over half) were ousted by party room coups - two of them in the past three years.”
Professor Costar blames the growth of opinion polling and nervous parties use surveys – however fleeting - that question a leader’s qualities to depose them. He quotes research from successive elections which suggest that leadership is not a decisive factor. Australian Labor, he argues, would have been better advised to focus on regeneration of its policy, philosophy and party organisation if it wanted to remain competitive. Instead, he writes, “it went messiah-seeking”.
Back to the current campaign and Labor has fought a poor campaign. Rudd had hoped to frighten voters with fears of big spending cuts if conservative opposition leader Tony Abbott is elected. That scare campaign was torpedoed last week by government civil servants. In an attempt to curry favour with their likely new masters leading Treasury officials disowned Rudd’s use of their research which he had presented as proof that Abbott’s plans didn't add up.
It wasn’t the only setback suffered by the Labor leader. His own colleagues questioned promises he made to introduce Hi-Speed rail and move dockland jobs away from Sydney and, conveniently, into electoral battlegrounds. The old Rudd who bypassed his colleagues was back but, this time, they were not accepting the cavalier behaviour quite so meekly.
Most advanced democracies would be delighted to have Australia’s economic record. Boosted by the export of raw materials to China the so-called ‘lucky country’ has enjoyed 22 years of uninterrupted growth. The economy has stuttered somewhat over the last six years but living standards are still up by 15 per cent. Labor is being punished for its Rudd-Gillard soap opera, for failing to deliver a promised budget surplus and for breaking a vow not to introduce a carbon tax.
Rudd needed a game-changing election campaign but voters seem more interested in a drug scandal that is rocking Australian rules football. Against that background Abbott is coasting to victory with his traditional conservative message of budgetary discipline, a tough approach to immigration and support for the family.
When the curtain falls this Saturday we’re unlikely to see any twitch from Rudd’s political corpse. The Gillardites are certainly determined to finish Abbott’s work. After election day many are going to take enormous public pleasure in banging nail after nail into his political coffin.
***
Later this week I'll report on the conservatism of Tony Abbott.
By Mark Wallace
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For a nation famous for bullish straight-talking, Australia's election campaign is proving to be a surprisingly tentative affair.
As Paul reported last week, Tony Abbott has the air of a man playing it safe. His coalition has maintained a poll lead for a long time, and neither Rudd's return nor Abbott's poor personal approval ratings have so far affected that headline voting intention.
It's a measure of what kind of campaign this is that one of the few sources of controversy is a proposal to buy up old fishing boats in Indonesia in order to prevent them being used by asylum seekers. This has not been a titanic clash of radical ideas (though it's worth noting that, unlike us, Australian politicians are able to seriously proposing a return to government surpluses during the next few years).
Perhaps the Opposition don't need to make too many waves, though. The Australian reports Labor MPs privately giving up on Kevin Rudd and instead focusing on saving their own seats, while it's emerged he has been using taxpayer-funded jets to make such crucial appointments as recording a cookery TV show.Abbott's strategy is a calculated gamble, based on the assumption that Rudd is going to flounder his way to polling day. There were hints in the leaders' debate this week that the Prime Minister still has some fire in his belly, but it is hard to see how even a drastic change in form could turn things around for Labor at such a late stage.
By Paul Goodman
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Polling day is two weeks away, but the Liberal Party's Tony Abbott would make it over the finishing line were the election held today, according to two separate polls. One was of the four most marginal sears held by the two main parties, published in the Australian Financial Review, which found that the partt would take at least five seats off Labour. The other, published in the Sydney Morning Herald, found that Labor would lose two other seats in New South Wales.
Those results would take Abbott over the 76 seat-threshold which he needs to win the election outright. The Liberals currently have 72 seats and Labor 71. The latter has been propped up by the Greens and by independents since the 2010 election, and Christian Kerr wrote an entertaining account on this site recently of how Kevin Rudd, Labour's Prime Minister, was first outed by Julia Gillard and then ousted her in turn. Kerr clocked his relative popularity: "Abbott has never been hugely liked. But Rudd – or as ordinary voters greet him, Kevin, is a different matter."
Bloomberg quotes Penny Wong, the Finance Minister, as saying: “There’s no doubt we’re still the underdog, and there’s no doubt that Tony Abbott, if the election was held on the day it was announced would be the prime minister." Voice of Australia reports that Abbott "is on track to comfortably win", and that Labor's support has fallen "to its lowest level since Kevin Rudd's return as Prime Minister". "In two-party terms, the Coalition enjoys a 54-46 per cent lead and, if repeated across the board on election day, Labor would lose 14 seats," it reports.
Abbott is what my Canadian friends and others closer to home would call a "movement Conservative", but I see that according to ABC he has just announced a planned tax rise which wasn't cleared by his party - namely, new paid parental leave provisions to be funded by "big business", as he puts it: that's to say, a 1.5 per cent levy on the 3000 largest firms in Australia. (The Liberal Leader also proposes a 1.5 per cent company tax cut and budget savings, including $2 billion from abolishing existing leave provisions.)
Parallels between one Anglosphere country and another can mislead, but part-funding a tax cut for smaller businesses through a tax rise on larger ones has echoes on the debate here about where any Tory tax cuts would fall - and to what degree the Party should put itself "on the side" of "strivers". Two weeks out, the election looks like Abbott's to lose. I enclose a clip of his opening remarks at the recent election debate with Rudd, reportedly an indecisive affair, in which the opposition leader is clearly playing it safe.