ConservativeHome's Seats & Candidates blog

The fight for the Yorkshire marginals

Earlier in the week I wrote about how the party is targeting seats in the South West of England.

Today, the Yorkshire Post focuses on the battleground constituencies falling within its jurisdiction, most of which fall within West Yorkshire. The party currently holds just one seat in that county - Shipley, gained by Philip Davies in 2005.

And of the target seats which would deliver a Tory majority of the Commons of around 40, all but three of the thirteen constituencies in the Yorkshire and the Humber Region are in West Yorkshire:

3. York Outer
21. Colne Valley
24. Calder Valley
58. Cleethorpes
69. Brigg and Goole
76. Bradford West
80. Halifax
82. Dewsbury
95. Leeds North West
100. Keighley
107. Elmet and Rothwell
111. Pudsey
133. Batley and Spen

(NB Figures based on notional results calculated by Professors Rallings and Thrasher of the University of Plymouth and including some newly-created seats)

The Yorkshire Post contrasts how the parties are funding their campaigns in these crucial seats:

Yorkshire prefers local candidate again

Fifty or so local Tories in the new seat of York Outer have just chosen Harrogate councillor Julian Sturdy to be their candidate at the next General Election.   It's the second time that Yorkshire Tories have preferred a local candidate to an A-lister (two weeks ago nearby Tories chose Nigel Adams for Selby and Ainsty).

Cllr Sturdy fought Scunthorpe in 2005 and is the son of Robert Sturdy MEP.  He beat two A-listers - Kevin Hollinrake and Julie Moody - to a seat with a notional LibDem majority of 1,821 according to Anthony Wells:

"After years of preferring to split urban seats into East/West or North/South divisions, York Outer is a surprising return to a 'donut' division - the new York Outer seat entirely encircles York Central. The seat itself will be a LibDem/ Conservative marginal, although there will also be a strong Labour presence. Notional 2005 result – C 13,764 L 9,768 LD 15,585 Oth 1,239 Liberal Democrat Majority 1,821 (4.5%)"

Since the advent of the A-list we have seen local candidates selected in three of eight selections.  Two out of the eight selections are women and one (Chippenham) is an ethnic minority candidate.  Tomorrow morning ConservativeHome will start publish a rolling list of selected candidates - including percentages of women and minority representatives adopted.  If anyone has a list of those candidates fast-tracked before David Cameron was elected please email it to me.  Received it now, thanks!

ConservativeHome can confirm that Vale of York MP Anne McIntosh (who loses her seats in boundary changes) did not apply for this seat.

I was surprised to hear that only fifty to sixty people attended today's York Outer selection.  It would be helpful to hear from other people about the number of members attending other selection meetings...