ConservativeHome's Seats & Candidates blog

Dennis Skinner finds himself as Labour's new poster boy (at least in Barnsley)

By Jonathan Isaby

Following my account of my campaigning trip to the Barnsley Central by-election at the end of last week, I thought I'd share a little of the literature being published by the other parties.

The glossy Labour election address makes much of the fact that their candidate, Dan Jarvis, has spent the last 15 years of his life serving Queen and country in the Parachute Regiment:

But most interesting to me on the Labour literature was the appearance of veteran Left-wing MP for Bolsover, Dennis Skinner, who has not to my knowledge officially been sanctioned as a Labour Party poster boy anytime recently:

Labour set for massive victory in Barnsley Central and No2AV campaign launches anti-Clegg poster

Tim Montgomerie

The Mail on Sunday surveyed 507 Barnsley Central voters on Thursday and Friday aof last week and it reports today that Labour is going to romp home in the Barnsley Central by-election. Labour is on 63% in the MoS poll, the Conservatives are on just 13% and the Lib Dems on 6%.

The No2AV campaign are set to take advantage of the Liberal Democrats' unpopularity by unveiling the first of a series of anti-Clegg posters (as ConHome has recommended):

The text under the poster reads: Under the Alternative Voting system Nick Clegg would have the power to choose the government, NOT you. Say NO to spending £250 million on AV.

There are lots of Conservatives in Barnsley... but they won't all be voting Conservative next week

By Jonathan Isaby

After a stopover in my beloved university city of York on Wednesday night, I travelled to Barnsley Central yesterday - site of the latest parliamentary by-election - with three of the current York Tories joining me in the Isabymobile for the trip.

The by-election - caused by the resignation of the disgraced (and now jailed) ex-Labour MP Eric Illsley - takes place next Thursday and James Hockney (with whom I am pictured here) is donning the blue rosette in a seat which has been a Labour stronghold for over 75 years.

James stood next door in Barnsley East at last year's general election - the only candidate from any of the three main parties to have a track record of campaigning in the area - and has been heartened by the number of MPs and activists coming to lend him a hand.  Yesterday MPs Michael Fallon, Guy Opperman and Martin Vickers were among those doing their bit and there will be an especially big push tomorrow, the final Saturday of the campaign. Details of how to get involved are at the bottom of this post.

So what did we find as we knocked on doors in what is, on paper, such a safe Labour seat?

Well, apart from a slightly higher than average count of menacing dogs (with one such example pictured on the left), the reaction we got from voters to whom we spoke was, on one level, rather encouraging.

There was much discontent about the number of people who now seem to be happily better off on benefits than in work and a crackdown on this was felt to be needed.

People spoke in highly sceptical tones about the amount of power which has been ceded to Brussels.

There was anger about how immigration has got out of control over recent years.

The local council was castigated for an appalling record of failing to keep the roads in a good state of repair (I, and my car, can vouch for that) and for wasting money on new offices and vanity projects of no interest to most residents.

James Hockney: Help me hold Labour to account for failing the people of Barnsley Central

James Hockney is Conservative candidate for next week's Barnsley Central by-election.

We have been having a great campaign so far here in Barnsley Central and it has been fantastic to meet so many local residents whether it is on their doorstep, in the town centre or out and about in Barnsley market.  The team and I are working hard to canvas across the constituency and we’ve welcomed many activists coming from all over the country to help the campaign. 

Last Thursday we were joined by the Party Chairman, Baroness Warsi, for a walkabout in the town centre where we met and chatted with many local people about their concerns and issues.  And on Saturday, despite the cold weather and even a few brief snow showers, our street stall at the local Asda was well supported.

For what is supposed to be a Labour stronghold, I have been met with a great deal of Conservative support.   Many Labour voters feel let down and have told me that they are likely to stay at home in protest at Labour’s record.   After all, not only have they left the country paying £120 million each day just on the interest on their debt, but locally the Labour council has more than doubled council tax since 1997.  And as well as these hikes, the council has wasted money on a number of things – like the £32,000 they spent on a giant ‘art’ clock that no-one can read.

I believe, however, that in these tough times Barnsley Council should be doing all it can to help out families and pensioners by bringing in a council tax freeze – that would be a real aid to people here.

I know Barnsley, having campaigned here previously, and I have a real understanding of the issues and concerns that affect people here.  I run my own small business and launched the 'shop local' campaign last year so I understand first hand what it takes to get the local economy moving again.  That’s why I’m fighting for jobs and investment here in Barnsley.

While it’s a hard road to a better Britain, this Government has started to get us back on the right track. Barnsley deserves better than Labour, so do what you can to help us hold them to account.

Anyone wishing to assist James's campaign should email [email protected]. The campaign centre is situated at The Coach House, Berneslai Close (Off Churchfield), Barnsley, S70 2BQ, which is ten minutes from Barnsley railway station and easily accessible from the M1. Should you not be able to make the trip, you can also email to offer to do telephone canvassing from wherever you happen to be.

Former Conservative MP defects to Labour

By Jonathan Isaby

It has emerged this morning that Andrew Pelling, the former Conservative MP for Croydon Central and ex-London Assembly Member for Croydon and Sutton has joined the Labour Party.

A Croydon councillor between 1982 and 2006 and a GLA Member between 2000 and 2008, he was elected Conservative MP for Croydon Central in 2005, but after difficulties in his personal life was suspended from the Tory whip in 2007.

He then went on to stand as an Independent in the constituency at the 2010 general election (polling a little over 3,000 votes), claiming that being an Independent meant he was "now just a politician who ‘takes up local issues’, which is no bad thing".

But he has now joined Labour, which, as the Croydon Guardian reports, will "come as no surprise, as Mr Pelling has been rubbing shoulders with Labour since becoming an outcast from the Conservatives".

He tells the paper:

"I may have endured a difficult journey to get to this point but it has not been a difficult decision to join Labour. On a national level, the Labour Party have got it right on the economy. The Conservatives are cutting too deep and too fast.

"I found the Conservative Party in Parliament to be a party of privilege with little empathy for Croydon. With a few notable individual exceptions in the Conservative Party it was the Labour Party who showed compassion and concern for me in difficult times for me personally. I was very touched by this."

John Bell to fight Alyn and Deeside at the Welsh Assembly election

By Jonathan Isaby

John Bell was recently selected to stand in Alyn and Deeside at May's Welsh Assembly election.

A teacher, he has been highly active in Conservative politics in North Wales over the last few years, having contested Delyn at the 2005 general election and Clwyd South at both the 2007 Assembly election and last year's general election.

He said on his selection:

"I am absolutely proud and delighted to be given the opportunity to offer myself to the people of Alyn and Deeside as their Conservative Assembly Member. As someone who has lived in north east Wales for twenty three years and worked at both the now merged Welsh Collage of Horticulture and Deeside College while also training apprentices at Airbus Industries I obviously know the area well.

"My aim will be to represent Alyn and Deeside in a Conservative Welsh Assembly government that will bring back efficient, common-sense government to Wales and get rid of the incompetent Labour / Plaid Coalition that has taken Wales for granted for far too long. As we take the difficult decisions needed to deal with Labour’s disastrous economic legacy of a massive budget deficit and £1 Trillion debt, my priority will be the protection and expansion of the wealth-creating private sector and their jobs to rebalance the Welsh economy away from Labour’s over-reliance on public spending, borrowing, debt, bureaucracy and welfare dependency.

"As a teacher who believes education is the key to solving many of our social and economic problems, I will work to improve educational standards that lag behind the rest of the UK and, more importantly, our international competitors. Our children deserve no less. I will, of course, also be fighting against Labour’s £1 billion cuts to our health service."

Conservatives spent £39,432 in Oldham, less than Lab £97,085, LDs £94,540, UKIP £43,855

Tim Montgomerie

We already knew this...

IMPACT OF CAMPAIGNS ON VOTERS IN OLDHAM EAST AND SADDLEWORTH

Now Michael Crick has discovered the Conservative Party's low relative spend in the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election:

You can argue that it was a good decision to conserve money... but hopefully Sayeeda Warsi won't continue to treat us all as fools and say CCHQ fought the by-election with everything it had.

Matt Smith selected to contest Cardiff Central at Welsh Assembly election

By Jonathan Isaby

Conservatives in Cardiff Central have selected Matt Smith to contest the seat at the Assembly election taking place in May. He was educated locally and has been been appointed a Special Advisor on Education Policy by Welsh Conservative Party leader Nick Bourne.

He said on his selection:

"There is nothing more important to me than the success of Cardiff Central, the powerhouse of our city and the Welsh economy, whose service industries are the best possible vindication of service-sector revolutions brought in by Conservative governments.

"What draws me to the Conservative party is aspiration. I know how important education is social mobility and progress. It is hard to overestimate how vital it is that the people of Cardiff Central seize the opportunity to vote Conservative so that we can drive forwards reform of education, giving power to teachers, parents and school governors across Wales."

"In education, Wales has cause for recrimination against Labour. In 2001 Labour ditched school league tables and replaced standardised tests with teaching assessments, making comparisons between schools’ performance impossible. Such policies and the lapsed standards that accompany them took almost 2 points a year off GCSE grades per student and poorer students suffered most."

"I’m a Conservative because I believe in people more than I believe in the dead hand of government. In Cardiff Central and across Wales, electors face a choice between another term dominated by Labour-Plaid national decline management, or a fresh approach based on Conservative reform. Let’s not let Labour-Plaid push us over the tipping point, vote for change in Wales".

He is not to be confused with Matt Smith, the Liberal Democrat candidate for the neighbouring Cardiff North constituency...

Labour have failed the people of Barnsley Central - both locally and nationally

Nigel Adams MP is campaign manager for the Conservative candidate, James Hockney, in Barnsley Central.

With the Conservative campaign for the Barnsley Central by-election now well underway, I want to take a look at the impact of Labour on Barnsley.  Under Labour’s plans every man, woman and child in Barnsley would owe £22,300 in national debt.  Labour took the country to the brink of bankruptcy and you don’t have to look far in Barnsley to see why.

The sad truth is we’re paying £120 million every day just in debt interest. This money is thrown away paying for Labour’s mismanagement of the economy – and it’s the ordinary person who has to pay for it.  Barnsley’s Labour controlled council wants to scrap free swimming for families and is blaming the Government cuts, but they could get their own house in order first.

Let’s take a look at what Barnsley Council has spent money on:

• Over £1 million spent on trade union posts wages with 38 full-time union posts at the council in 2009-10.
• It spent £2 million on publicity while council tax was being doubled under Labour.
• £32,500 on a giant ‘art’ clock that no-one can read.
• Barnsley’s chief executive earns £161,000, considerably more than the Prime Minister.
• Over £6,000 spent on village marker stones in 2010.
• More than £300,000 is being paid out on what some would call “non-jobs” including two European Officers, four Diversity Officers and two Climate Change Officers.

Under Labour, the council tax in Barnsley more than doubled, while the Chief Executive of the council enjoyed a pay packet more than that of the Prime Minister’s and spent nearly £2 million on advertising. The Government has provided the funding for every council to freeze council tax for 2011-12.  In these tough times the Labour-led Barnsley Council should help families and pensioners by freezing the council tax.

In James Hockney, we have a dedicated candidate who hasn’t just been parachuted in for the by-election. James knows Barnsley, having campaigned there previously, and has a real understanding of the issues and concerns that affect people here in the area.  James has experience of running his own small business and knows what it takes to get the local economy moving again - I know he will fight for jobs and investment in Barnsley. 

The people of Barnsley have been badly let down by Labour and the previous MP.  Let’s draw a line underneath that and focus on what’s best for Barnsley.  Ed Miliband refuses to accept that Labour overspent before the boom turned to bust. His message to the British people is simple: vote for me, I’d do it all again.

Barnsley deserves better than Labour, so do what you can to help us hold them to account.

Anyone wishing to assist the campaign should email [email protected]. The campaign centre is situated at The Coach House, Berneslai Close (Off Churchfield), Barnsley, S70 2BQ, which is ten minutes from Barnsley railway station and easily accessible from the M1. Should you not be able to make the trip, you can also email to offer to do telephone canvassing from wherever you happen to be.

Have you offered to help James Hockney in Barnsley Central yet?

By Jonathan Isaby

With the Barnsley Central by-election taking place on Thursday March 3rd, South Yorkshire has seen a steady stream of Conservative activists pouring in to help our candidate, James Hockney.

James is pictured above with campaign manager Nigel Adams MP and many of the senior party volunteers who Emma Pidding took to the constituency on Monday, who included three of the National Convention Officers - Jeremy Middleton (Chairman), Fiona Hodgson (President Elect) and Charles Heslop (Vice President) - and seven Regional Chairman, namely Rob Semple (Yorkshire & Humber); Tiz Baskerville (Eastern); Adrian Mitchell (North West); Ian Galletley (North East); Linda Kirk (East Midlands); Gordon Guild (West Midlands); and Caroline Roberts (London).

I will be making the trip to Yorkshire next week to spend a day flying the blue flag in Barnsley and should you wish to assist, please email [email protected]. The campaign centre is situated at The Coach House, Berneslai Close (Off Churchfield), Barnsley, S70 2BQ, which is ten minutes from Barnsley railway station and easily accessible from the M1.

Should you not be able to make the trip, you can also email to offer to do telephone canvassing from wherever you happen to be.

Hope to see you in Barnsley!

Latest campaign leaflets in Barnsley Central focus on Labour's legacy of debt

By Jonathan Isaby

James Hockney was chosen as Conservative candidate for next month's Barnsley Central by-election last Thursday and teams were out in force over the weekend canvassing and delivering. It was only on Saturday that the Lib Dems chose a candidate, in the form of Dominic Carman, son of the late George Carman QC.

Below are the latest leaflets James is putting out. Should you wish to assist his campaign, please email [email protected]. The campaign centre is situated at The Coach House, Berneslai Close (Off Churchfield), Barnsley, S70 2BQ and is a little over half a mile away from Barnsley railway station.

James Hockney to be Conservative candidate at Barnsley Central by-election

By Jonathan Isaby

Yesterday the Labour Chief Whip moved the writ for the Barnsley Central by-election, meaning that it will take place on Thursday March 3rd - the same day as the referendum in Wales on giving more power to the Welsh Assembly.

The former MP for Barnsley Central, Eric Illsley, formally resigned his Commons seat on Tuesday in advance of his sentencing today for his offences relating to his claims for parliamentary expenses.

I revealed last week that Selby and Ainsty's Tory MP Nigel Adams will be managing the Conservative campaign in Barnsley Central and I hope to have news of our candidate very shortly.

> Today's Sun reports that David Cameron has asked ex-Yorkshire cricketer Darren Gough if he would consider being the Conservative candidate.

2pm update:

I can reveal that the Conservative candidate at the by-election will be James Hockney, who contested neighbouring Barnsley East at the general election last year.

The grandson of a coalminer, he is a 32-year-old businessman who is also a Trustee of the children’s charity, the Red Balloon Learner Centre, in South Yorkshire.

He said on his selection:

“It is a real privilege to be standing for Barnsley Central. Having previously campaigned in the seat just next door, I have got a real understanding of the issues and concerns of Barnsley’s residents and local businesses. If elected as the next MP for Barnsley Central I will passionately fight for jobs, investment and a brighter future for the community.”

I am told that the media speculation about Darren Gough being invited to stand as the Tory candidate was rather "blown out of proportion", not least because of his contractual obligations as a radio pundit - but I am reliably told that the former England cricket star will be hitting the campaign trail in support of James.

James will be out campaigning on Saturday and should you wish to assist, please email [email protected].

The new campaign centre is situated at The Coach House, Berneslai Close (Off Churchfield), Barnsley, S70 2BQ and is a little over half a mile away from Barnsley railway station.

Dan Boucher selected to fight Swansea East at the Welsh Assembly election

By Jonathan Isaby

On Thursday night, At the end of last month Swansea East Conservatives selected Dan Boucher as their candidate to fight the Welsh Assembly Election on May 5th.

Dan is a 39-year-old charity worker who has been involved in the voluntary sector in Wales for the past twelve years. He is married to Emma and is a graduate fo Swansea University.

He said on his selection:

"It is a tremendous privilege and responsibility to have been selected to fight for Swansea East at the next election. I very much look forward to the opportunity presented by the election to talk to people about the issues facing our city and nation and to make the case for Welsh Conservative policies.

"The Labour-Plaid Welsh Assembly Government is failing the people of Swansea and the people of Wales through its appalling performance in education. For Wales - a nation with a long-term, proud commitment to education and self-improvement – to be languishing towards the bottom of the PISA League Tables is extraordinary. I’m delighted that the Welsh Conservatives are able to provide the people of Swansea East with a compelling education alternative.

"We must remember the key role played by innovation in informing Swansea’s past economic success and lead the way in Wales, and indeed the UK, in accessing the full economic development opportunities arising out of the potential relationship between our business and university research sectors."

Nigel Adams MP announced as campaign manager in Barnsley Central as further action days take place

By Jonathan Isaby

I can reveal today that Nigel Adams, the Conservative MP for Selby and Ainsty, will be campaign manager for the forthcoming Barnsley Central by-election, which will occur once sitting MP Eric Illsley formally quits his Commons seat. Later this month he will be sentenced after his guilty pleas to false accounting relating to his parliamentary expenses.

Nigel's family hails from the Barnsley area and I know he is looking forward to getting stuck in with the challenge of helping put the Conservative case in a constituency which has not always been natural Tory territory.

He tells me:

"We will be fighting this campaign hard as Labour has failed Barnsley and allowed parties with extreme views to prosper. At the general election we were only a handful of votes behind the Lib Dems: there is no pact and we will be fighting for every vote."

A Conservative candidate will shortly be selected, but already the party is working on the ground.

There are further action days taking place today, tomorrow and on Monday February 7th and if you would like to volunteer to help, please email [email protected].

The campaign centre situated at 9a High Street, Penistone, S36 6BR (Tel: 01226 762155). It is situated half a mile from Penistone railway station.

MPs have thus far had more chance of being promoted if they were an "A-Lister"

By Jonathan Isaby

After the general election last year, I noted that of the original 100 members of the Priority List (A-List), 38 had been elected MPs - equivalent to 26% of the 147 new MPs elected in 2010.

So if these were the people who the party leadership was keenest to see on the green benches, are they similarly being fast-tracked with promotions now they are in the Commons?

The following A-Listers have already been given PPS or party appointments:

1 A-Lister was appointed a party vice-chairman last July

• Andrew Stephenson - Vice-Chairman (Youth)

2 A-Listers were appointed Parliamentary Private Secretaries last September

• Angie Bray - PPS to Francis Maude
• Conor Burns - PPS to Hugo Swire

5 A-Listers were appointed Parliamentary Private Secretaries last November

• Nick Boles - PPS to Nick Gibb
• George Freeman - PPS to Gregory Barker
• Esther McVey - PPS to Chris Grayling
• Mark Menzies - PPS to Charles Hendry
• Anna Soubry - PPS to Simon Burns

That accounts for 8 out of a total of 24 of the new intake who have already been given roles (22 PPSs and 2 vice-chairmen).

In other words, exactly one third of those have been promoted were A-Listers, whilst two thirds of those who have been promoted were not A-Listers.

So, proportionately:

• 8 of the 38 A-List new MPs have received preferment - 21%
• 16 of the 109 non-A-List new MPs have received preferment - 15%

All of which suggests that the A-Listers have thus far been marginally more likely to get a first post - which is not entirely surprising, given the leadership's eagerness to have them in Parliament in the first place.

Later in the week I will investigate whether the A-Listers have been more or less inclined than their colleagues to rebel against the Government.

Simon Baynes to contest Dwyfor Meirionnydd at the Welsh Assembly election

By Jonathan Isaby

Simon Baynes has been selected this week to contest Dwyfor Meirionnydd at May's Welsh Assembly election.

The seat was created for the 2007 Welsh Assembly election (being represented by Daffydd Elis-Thomas, the Plaid Cymru Presiding Officer at Cardiff Bay, who also represented much of the area under previous boundaries) and Simon fought the newly-created Westminster seat on the same boundaries at last year's general election. On that occasion he attained an impressive 7.3% swing from Plaid to the Conservatives, overtaking Labour to take second place.

Simon is a Powys County Councillor and a Deputy Chairman of the Welsh Conservatives and you can read more about him on his website.

Gerry Adams is formally appointed to an office of profit under the Crown, disqualifying him from the Commons

By Jonathan Isaby

26th January 3.30pm update:

It's official; David Cameron told the Commons at PMQs and here is the formal notice from the Treasury:

Gerry Adams has been appointed to an office of profit under the Crown* in order that he could vacate the seat he won but never took in the Commons.

Sinn Fein had attempted to avoid this. UTV quoted their spokesman as saying earlier in the week:

"We couldn't give a toss [about these rules]. He's not going to apply for these offices. He has sent in a resignation letter like any ordinary person. We want a byelection in West Belfast. There's no written constitution; they just make it up anyway. It's strange men who parade around in tights. Republicans are not losing any sleep over this."

But as John Bercow told the Commons yesterday:

"There are procedures to be observed, and observed they must be."

The questions now is: who by tradition, moves the writ for a by-election, and when, if there is no sitting MP in the Commons from the party of the outgoing MP? The precedent is the second by-election in Fermanagh and South Tyrone of 1981, following the death of Bobby Sands, but I cannot pinpoint the Hansard reference...

* Nick Watt of the Guardian has a statement from Adams claiming he never applied for the office of profit under the Crown.

---

In what was a busy day politically, it may have ecaped your notice that Gerry Adams - who did of course never take his seat at Westminster - yesterday resigned as MP for Belfast West. This he has done in order to contest a seat at the Irish general election on March 11th, the BBC reported.

Although I'm not sure who will move the writ (given that there is no member of Sinn Fein in the Commons to do so, and usually - though not always - it is someone from the sitting MP's party who does so), it will prompt a by-election in what is one of the safest seats in the United Kingdom.

At the general election, Adam held it with a majority of 17,579 over the SDLP candidate. The DUP trailed in third with 7.6% of the vote, with the UCUNF candidate losing his deposit with 3.1% of the vote.

How to join action days in Barnsley Central ahead of parliamentary by-election

By Jonathan Isaby

I am prompted by Emma Pidding, the National Volunteer By-Election Co-Ordinator, to publicise two action days which are upcoming in Barnsley Central. A parliamentary by-election will be pending there as soon as sitting MP Eric Illsley formally resigns his seat in advance of him being sentenced following his guilty pleas to three counts of false accounting.

The action days will take place on Friday 21st January and Saturday 22nd January, between 10am and 6pm, meeting at the campaign centre situated at 9a High Street, Penistone, S36 6BR (Tel: 01226 762155). It is situated half a mile from Penistone railway station.

If you would like to join one of the action days, please email [email protected].

Owen Meredith selected to fight Caerphilly at the Welsh Assembly election

By Jonathan Isaby

Owen Meredith has been selected this week to fight his home seat of Caerphilly at the Welsh Assembly election in May.

He said on his selection:

"It is a huge honour to have the opportunity to contest Caerphilly in this election. I was born and brought up in Caerphilly and it has been my family home for more than 35 years.

“There is so much potential here, but also a lot of problems we need to work on. I want to see Caerphilly thrive and be an economic centre in South Wales. I am deeply concerned by the state we are in, as a town and a nation. It is amazing to think that after 12 years of devolution, Wales is the worst performing economy in the UK. In the right hands, the Welsh Assembly has the power to do so much more for the people of Caerphilly and the rest of Wales.

“Every day I am struck by how much better things could be. My campaign will be about working together to make the positive changes that so many of us have been waiting for, for so long. Building an enterprising local economy; supporting local young people to gain the right education and skills; and protecting the most vulnerable people in society – this is our chance to make that change happen.”

There is lots more about Owen on his website.

Equalisation of constituency sizes will create unnatural seats like "Devonwall", says report

Tim Montgomerie

The equalisation of constituency sizes - a reform that will significantly address the advantage currently enjoyed by Labour from the division of seats across the UK - will create many unnatural seats. That is the predictable conclusion of a new report written by Lewis Baston for Democratic Audit.

The BBC highlights some of the consequences:

• "Urban seats in cities like Doncaster and Coventry would have to take in countryside wards with few shared interests";
• "One constituency would have to unite areas in the Isle of Wight and Hampshire";
• "The island of Anglesey would be joined to Bangor across the Menai Strait"; and
• "A "Devonwall" seat would give one MP responsibility for parts of Cornwall and Devon."

Many small conservatives will object to these unnatural seats but they are a necessary consequence of eliminating the disparity whereby "the Conservative MP for the Isle of Wight, Andrew Turner, was elected by 103,480 voters, while the member for Arfon in north Wales, Plaid Cymru's Hywel Williams, answers to 42,998 people."

"The coalition would have won in Oldham East had it fielded just one candidate"

Tim Montgomerie

Over at The Spectator David Blackburn writes: "The coalition would have won in Oldham East had it fielded just one candidate."

Really?

Let's just take a look at the numbers...

• Debbie Abrahams for Labour won 14,718 votes.
• Elwyn Watkins for the Liberal Democrats won 11,160 and Conservative Kashif Ali won 4,481 making a total of 15,641.

On the face of it that would translate into a Coalition majority of 923.

But would every Tory voter and every Lib Dem voter support a Coalition candidate?

For David Blackburn's statement to be true you'd need 94% of Tory and LibDem voters to support the Coalition candidate and none of the other 6% to support the Labour candidate. I just don't think that would happen.

Last week an Angus Reid poll found that only 83% of Tory voters would support a Coalition candidate and the number of LibDem voters who would do the same would be even lower.

I've heaped praise on Mark Pritchard for opposing Coalition candidates but he has shot his own argument in the foot in the last 24 hours by backing such candidates in by-elections. We need the Conservative Party to fight every seat in every part of the country. Coalition candidates in by-elections would offend many of our core supporters.

Labour hold Oldham East and Saddleworth

By Jonathan Isaby

1.53am RESULT - LAB HOLD

Debbie Abrahams (Labour) - 14,718 (42.1%; +10.3%)
Elwyn Watkins (Liberal Democrat) - 11,160 (32.0%; +0.3%)
Kashif Ali (Conservative) - 4,481 (12.8%; -13.6%)
Paul Nuttall (UKIP) - 2,029 (5.8%; +2.0%)
Derek Adams (BNP) - 1,560 (4.5%; -1.3%)
Peter Allen (Green) - 530 (1.5%)
The Flying Brick (Monster Raving Loony Party) - 145 (0.4%)
Stephen Morris (English Democrats) - 144 (0.4%)
Loz Kaye (Pirate Party) - 96 (0.3%)
David Bishop (Bus-Pass Elvis Party) - 67 (0.2%)

Labour majority: 3,558
Lib Dem to Lab swing of 5.0%
Con to Lab swing of 11.9%
Turnout: 48.1%

-----

The polls closed at 10pm in Oldham East and Saddleworth and with the result expected around 1.30am I will try and pull together the rumours that are doing the rounds about the result.

As of 11.45pm:

• Turnout is said to be between 40% and 45%.
• Labour insider John McTernan is predicting a victory for his candidate by 5,000. 
• Tory campaign manager Andrew Stephenson is quoted by The Guardian's Andrew Sparrow as saying: "Things have not gone as we would have hoped... Whoever starts in third place is going to get squeezed... It appears that our vote has been squeezed quite strongly, particularly by the Lib Dems."

Midnight: LabourList predicts Labour majority of "between 3 and 5,000"

12.10am Tim Farron, Lib Dem President, tells Sky News that they have come "a decent second"

12.12am Joey Jones from Sky News say turnout is "just over 48%"

12.30am Laura Kuenssberg on the BBC says Labour majority could be "up to 3,000"

12.35am Tory Deputy Chairman Michael Fallon on the BBC is singing from the same hymn sheet as Andrew Stephenson: "If you're the third party in a by-election you get squeezed"

12.40am Turnout formally confirmed as 48.06%.

12.41am Andy Burnham still downplaying expectations: "It's looking promising, it's not in the bag yet"

12.50am Andrew Sparrow predicts "a Labour majority of at least 4,500"

1.05am On the BBC, Andrew Stephenson says nine Cabinet ministers visited during the campaign and that there were 300 Tory activists in the seat last Saturday. He says that the Tory position has slipped from the general election but insists the Tories have held a "reasonable third place".

1.12am Debbie Abrahams, Labour candidate and now certain to be the newest MP in the Commons, has arrived at the count. She is greeted with a bouquet of flowers...

1.35am Conservative sources estimate the parties' votes "crudely" as Lab 14,000, Lib Dem 10,000 and Con 4,000, with UKIP in fourth place. They point to the fact that Labour have started third in four by-elections over the last 13 years while they were in government - Winchester, Romsey, Cheadle and Henley - and lost their deposits at all of those contests. The Conservatives tonight are "nowehere close" to losing the deposit like that.

A by-election is now due to take place in Leicester South

By Jonathan Isaby

March 5th update:

LabourList reports that Sir Peter Soulsby, the Labour MP for Leicester South, has (as expected) today been selected as Labour candidate for Mayor of Leicester.

As such, he has announced his intention to resign as an MP to concentrate on the mayoral campaign and it is strongly expected that the by-election will take place on May 5th, coinciding with local elections and the AV referendum.

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After today's by-election in Oldham East and Saddleworth, we know another is already on the cards in Barnsley Central, which is being vacated by Eric Illsley.

But Sky News' Jon Craig reveals that there is a high possibility of a third by-election before too long:

Now, I can reveal, there is likely to be a third byelection, in Leicester South, because Labour MP Sir Peter Soulsby is tipped to become his party's candidate for Mayor of Leicester in an election in May and is expected to quit the Commons if he is successful.

The selection of Labour's mayoral candidate in Leicester is due in late February or early March, I'm told, and senior Shadow Cabinet allies of Ed Miliband tell me Labour would like to hold the Barnsley and Leicester South byelections on the same day.

Leicester South was the scene of a by-election in 2004 when the Lib Dems temporarily snatched the seat from Labour, only for Sir Peter to take it back in 2005. He held it last May wit a majority of 8,808 over the Lib Dems. The full result was:

Labour - Sir Peter Soulsby                    21,479  45.6% (+6.2)
Liberal Democrat - Parmjit Singh Gill    12,671  26.9% (-3.7)
Conservative - Ross Grant                    10,066  21.4% (+3.6)
BNP - Adrian Waudby                             1,418    3.0% (+3.0)
Green - Dave Dixey                                    770   1.6% (-1.6)
UKIP - Christopher Lucas                           720   1.5% (+1.5)

Andrew Stephenson MP: Labour’s negative and disingenuous campaign in Oldham East and Saddleworth is based on dodgy claims, shaky statistics and lies

Andrew Stephenson is MP for Pendle, a Conservative Party vice chairman and Campaign Manager for the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election.

As we enter the last few days of the by-election campaign in Oldham East and Saddleworth, it’s no surprise that Labour are resorting to dodgy claims and shaky statistics to hold on to the seat.

In contrast to Kashif Ali’s positive campaign, Labour are misleading voters about public spending and, more specifically, police budget cuts in this by-election.

The first piece of chicanery surrounds what they would do, if they were in government, to deal with their disastrous legacy of debt. Their candidate in Oldham, Debbie Abrahams, has said there is a ‘strong Labour alternative’ to our deficit reduction programme.  But we all know, from Ed Miliband’s admission that Labour’s policies are a blank piece of paper, they haven’t provided a credible alternative at all.  It’s simply wrong to say they have.

The next aspect of their misleading campaign lies in the statement found on much of their literature: ‘wrong cuts, wrong time’.

Let’s deal with ‘wrong cuts’ first. 

Eric Illsley sentenced to a year in jail after his guilty plea to false accounting over his expenses

By Jonathan Isaby

February 10th 4.45pm update:

Illsley has just been sentenced to a year in jail. The BBC has more.

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Eric Illsley, the MP for Barnsley Central, has just pleaded guilty to all three charges of false accounting relating to more than £14,000 of his parliamentary expenses claims, reports the BBC.

Unlike David Chaytor - the ex-Labour MP who was jailed last week - Illsley did not stand down at the election and was returned as a Labour MP last May with a majority of over 11,000. It was only after he was charged - a fortnight after the election - that Labour withdrew the whip from him.

He wil not be sentenced for another four weeks, so it remains to be seen whether he, like Chaytor, is given a custodial sentence. Any MP sentenced to serve 12 months or more in prison is automatically disqualified from retaining their seat.

Even if he is not given that long a custodial sentence, it seems hard to imagine how he could realistically remain an MP in the circumstances.

So a Barnsley Central by-election looks a strong possibility.

The result last May was:

Labour - Eric Illsley                      17,487    47.3%    -10.4%
Liberal Democrat - Chris Wiggin    6,394    17.3%    +0.7
Conservative - Piers Tempest        6,388    17.3%    +2.5
BNP - Ian Sutton                            3,307      8.9%    +4.4
UKIP - David Silver                        1,727      4.7%
Independent - Donald Wood             732      2.0%
Independent - Tony Devoy                610      1.6%
Socialist Labour - Terry Robinson     356      1.0%

> The BBC notes that since the Second World War two sitting MPs have been disqualified after being imprisoned - Captain Peter Baker (Conservative) in 1954, and John Stonehouse (Labour) in 1976. Labour MP Terry Fields was imprisoned for non-payment of community charge in 1991, but only for 60 days, so was not disqualified.

Update: The ever well-informed Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report corrects the BBC assertion:

No MP has ever been disqualified under the law banning people serving sentences over a year. The law was only passed in 1981 following the election and death of Bobby Sands, hence preventing a second hunger striker standing in the second by-election.  Capt Peter Baker was expelled by a resolution of the House at his own request (he wrote to the Speaker after his imprisonment and asked the House to vote to expel him), Stonehouse applied to the Chiltern Hundreds.

7.15pm update:

Pressure is growing on Eric Illsley to resign as an MP from both the Government and his former party.

David Cameron's spokesman said:that:

"If someone has defrauded the people they are there to represent, that is quite an untenable position."

Meanwhile, Ed Miliband said:

"I don't think [Illsley] can be a credible voice for his constituents having pleaded guilty to such a serious offence."

Andrew Sparrow cites Labour sources as indicating that, "if Illsley does not resign, the party will call for a vote in the Commons to have him expelled".

Wednesday 2.15pm update:

Sky News reporting that Eric Illsley says he will quit as an MP before his next court appearance in four weeks' time), causing a by-election in Barnsley Central.

2.30pm Here's his full statement (hat tip Total Politics)

“I would like to apologise to my constituents, family and friends, following my court appearance, for the distress and embarrassment caused by my actions that I deeply, deeply regret. I have begun to wind down my parliamentary office, following which I will resign from Parliament before my next court appearance. I will be making no further comment.”

Lib Dem literature in Oldham East and Saddleworth continues to vilify Phil Woolas

By Jonathan Isaby

Following on from looking at the Conservative and Labour literature being distributed in Oldham East and Saddleworth, below is a selection of that being pumped out by the Liberal Demcrats.

There are several common themes: the oh-so-familiar bar charts and very stongly worded attacks on the seat's former Labour MP Phil Woolas, whose disqualification has caused the by-election. One leaflet below states that "it's time to clean up politics and put an end to Labour's personal American-style negative campaigning" several lines below the statement "Labour and Phil Woolas have brought shame on the area".

There is, as with the other parties' campaigns, quite a bit about crime and policing: the Lib Dems make the point that the police are facing cutbacks due to Gordon Brown's Government spending money it didn't have.

Labour heading for thumping victory in Oldham with two polls showing the Lib Dems 17% behind

Tim Montgomerie

Two polls tonight suggest Labour is heading for a thumping victory in Oldham East and Saddleworth.

• An ICM survey of 504 voters in Oldham East and Saddleworth finds the Labour candidate is on 44% (up 12%) since the election and the Lib Dem candidate is on 27% (down 5%). The Tory vote has been squeezed - falling from 26% last May to 18% now.
• A poll of 1,503 voters in the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election, undertaken by Lord Ashcroft - and published in tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph - suggests that Labour has the support of 46% of voters (up 14% since the General Election) and only 29% will vote Liberal Democrat (-3%). The Conservatives are in third place on 15% (down 11% on last May's result). Only 11% of those surveyed said that they would change their mind.

On the back of these two polls the Lib Dems will undoubtedly be distributing leaflets this week attempting to squeeze the Tory vote further but 17% looks too big a gap to close.

DETAIL FROM THE LORD ASHCROFT/ SUNDAY TELEGRAPH POLL

The biggest factor changing people's votes appears to be the tuition fees vote. 28% said the Lib Dem/ Coalition u-turn was the biggest single factor influencing their vote. The next biggest factor at 10% was "voting tactically/ a Conservative vote is a wasted vote". 5% said "didn't like Phil Woolas" was their primary reason.

Labour's campaign literature in Oldham virtually ignores Ed Miliband and concentrates on attacking "police cuts"

By Jonathan Isaby

After showing you some of the Conservaitve campaign literature being distributed in Oldham East and Saddelworth, here's a look at what Labour have pumped out as their main election address.

In the form of an eight-page A5 booklet, much of it is devoted to fluffy personal details about the candidate, whilst the big political message is the "Save Our Police" campaign, opposing cuts to the police. I reproduce a second flyer on police cuts below the election address.

Most strikingly, there is no reference in the text of the address to Ed Miliband or any national Labour politician. There is just a small picture of the new Labour leader at the bottom of page 7.

The Conservative campaign in Oldham East and Saddleworth turns its fire on Labour

By Jonathan Isaby

As we enter the fnal weekend before the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election, the Conservative campaign enters a new phase, with a new swathe of leaflets turning the fire onto Labour.

In order to volunteer and help deliver some of them, or even to register your desire to do some telephone canvassing from wherever you are, please email the campaign or call 07506 028382 or 07939 622561. Click here to download the map of where to find the campaign HQ.

The new leaflets each feature one side contianing a positive list of Coalition Government achievements thus far:

But the reverse side features one of eight different attacks on Labour, as below:

Kashif Ali's literature shows what a positive campaign the Conservatives are fighting in Oldham East and Saddleworth

By Jonathan Isaby

As promised yesterday, below is a look at the kind of literature the Conservatives are distributing in Oldham East and Saddleworth. In all cases, please click to enlarge.

In order to volunteer and help deliver some of it, or even to register your desire to do some telephone canvassing from wherever you are, please email the campaign or call 07506 028382 or 07939 622561. Click here to download the map of where to find the campaign HQ.

The first electoral address highlighted the main themes of Kashif Ali's positive campaign in terms of the local issues he is championing, as well as including a clean campaign pledge not dissimilar to that used to good effect in Norwich South in 2009:

Below are the pages from an In Touch leaflet being delievered across the constituency. It highlights the first class local credentials of the Conservative candidate; explains why the Spending Review was necessary; includes a piece by Baroness Newlove about the work she is doing to promote active, safer communities; and promotes positive things the "Conservative-led coalition" has already achieved.