ConservativeHome's Seats & Candidates blog

The fragility of many Conservative MPs' majorities should be a cause for concern

By Matthew Barrett
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Reading Dewi at Slugger O'Toole's analysis of the Scottish election results - and the fact the SNP were only a few thousand votes short of an even more stunning victory, such was the small size of the Lab/Con/Lib majority in a number of Holyrood seats - I was reminded of the fragility of a number of Conservative Westminster seats.

When examining our performance in last year's general election, an often over-looked fact is that many, almost certainly the majority, of Conservative MPs who won their seats last year from Labour, have smaller majorities than their Labour predecessors had in 1997.

This should be a cause for concern. If there was an election in a month's time, and even if the parties were level, at, say, 37%/37% and the Lib Dems on 10%, electoral calculators show Labour would win back tens of seats we gained last year.

Simon Reevell uses his PPC Diary to file an update on how his campaign to oust Shahid Malik in Dewsbury is going

Each week a different PPC provides us with an insight into life as a candidate and gives us a flavour of their own campaign and interests. If you are a candidate and are keen to be featured, please email Jonathan Isaby.

This week’s diary is written by Simon Reevell, who was selected in February 2009 for Dewsbury in West Yorkshire. He is a barrister who was chairman of Beverley and Holderness Conservative Association prior to his selection. He is challenging Labour MP Shahid Malik, who will defend a notional majority of 3,999, meaning that Simon needs a swing of 4.5% to win the seat, which last had a Tory MP between 1983 and 1987.

Monday 15th February
The week begins with the newspapers full of talk of an ‘early’ General Election by which they seem to mean March 25th. This seems to be on the back of opinion polls which may not have changed if you allow for their inbuilt margin of error and which certainly ignore the fact that Northern marginal seats are running ahead of the national figures. In Dewsbury we are ready for the election whenever it is called. In fact there is that feeling of having done the revision and just wanting the exam to begin. Spending this afternoon writing to thank people who have offered to display posters brings home the fact that whenever the election is it will be soon!

This evening was the Mirfield Branch’s regular meeting. The Chairman, Patricia, is an ex-Labour councillor who became disillusioned with Labour and joined us. Mirfield provides some really committed volunteers; in the last three weeks they have delivered nearly 8,000 pieces of campaign literature. We discuss the details of a linked General and local election campaign assuming 6th May.

Tuesday 16th February
I spent this afternoon dealing with some delay in compensation payments following a disruption in the gas supply, for up to a week in some cases, in part of the constituency over New Year. It is the usual tale of recorded messages and call centre staff who can only work to their script. Eventually I get to speak to someone who can make a decision and some progress was made.

This evening I attended a presentation by the Army at the Royal Armouries in Leeds. Defence and in particular the way the Armed forces have been treated since 1997 got me into politics (search my name and ‘Blaymire’ on a full web search and see if you still think Chilcot has unearthed anything new!!). The presentation was impressive and it whilst was good to hear re-assuring comments about kit, it is a disgrace that it has taken so long.

The fight for the Yorkshire marginals

Earlier in the week I wrote about how the party is targeting seats in the South West of England.

Today, the Yorkshire Post focuses on the battleground constituencies falling within its jurisdiction, most of which fall within West Yorkshire. The party currently holds just one seat in that county - Shipley, gained by Philip Davies in 2005.

And of the target seats which would deliver a Tory majority of the Commons of around 40, all but three of the thirteen constituencies in the Yorkshire and the Humber Region are in West Yorkshire:

3. York Outer
21. Colne Valley
24. Calder Valley
58. Cleethorpes
69. Brigg and Goole
76. Bradford West
80. Halifax
82. Dewsbury
95. Leeds North West
100. Keighley
107. Elmet and Rothwell
111. Pudsey
133. Batley and Spen

(NB Figures based on notional results calculated by Professors Rallings and Thrasher of the University of Plymouth and including some newly-created seats)

The Yorkshire Post contrasts how the parties are funding their campaigns in these crucial seats:

BNP plan General Election campaign in Labour heartland seats

Two of Britain's leading authorities on the BNP have written for NothingBritish.com about What The BNP Breakthrough Means For British Politics.

Rob Ford and Matthew Goodwin, both of Manchester University, note that the BNP intend to target Labour seats at the next General Election:

"The forthcoming general election will almost certainly see BNP strategists turn their guns with renewed vigour toward Labour’s industrial heartlands. We now know that the BNP performs strongest in economically deprived areas that have - or are close to - large Muslim communities and where there are large numbers of less skilled and less educated working class males (in other words, traditional Labour Party supporters). The BNP will have been emboldened by their ability to make gains at Labour’s expense, will take comfort from the fact that UKIP have no ‘ground game’ and seldom perform as well in national elections, and so the party will look toward constituencies such as Barking (where they polled 17% in 2005), Burnley, Dagenham, Dewsbury, Dudley North and those around Stoke-on-Trent as prospective sites for a second place finish or, quite possibly, the election of the first BNP Member of Parliament.

Griffin will seek to learn from the mistakes of the earlier National Front (NF), which in the general election of 1979 got ahead of itself by standing over 300 candidates (polling a meagre 1.3 per cent). The BNP are more likely to run a smaller but more targeted campaign focusing on areas where they know they will do well, and drafting in footsoldiers from other areas in an attempt to exploit Labour’s disarray at the grassroots."

Read the full piece here.

Simon Reevell selected for Dewsbury

Simon Reevell, a Yorkshire-based barrister, was selected at an open primary last night to contest Dewsbury at the next general election. He is currently chairman of Beverley and Holderness Conservative Associaiton.

After considerable boundary changes, the sitting Labour MP, Shahid Malik, will be defending a notional majority of only 3,999 (based on the Rallings and Thrasher figures), meaning that Simon needs a swing of 4.5% to win the seat. Along with Colne Valley, Calder Valley, Bradford West, Halifax, Leeds North West, Keighley, Elmet & Rothwell and Pudsey, it is one of a number of West Yorkshire marginals all of which - on paper - the party needs to win if it is to form a government after the next election. Dewsbury last had a Tory MP between 1983 and 1987 in the form of John Whitfield.

Simon said on his selection:

“I am delighted to have been selected as the Parliamentary Candidate for Dewsbury and look forward to working across the constituency in the coming months. I’ve already heard that residents and businesses are fed-up with Labour’s twelve years of ignoring the needs of Dewsbury and of West Yorkshire. I’ll be listening to what people really want improved and setting out our plan for change.”

The previously selected Conservative candidate, Kevin Hollinrake, resigned last October to concentrate on his business affairs.

Kevin Hollinrake resigns as candidate for Dewsbury

The Conservative selected to fight Dewsbury at the next General Election has resigned to concentrate on his business. Kevin Hollinrake is founder and head of the Yorkshire estate agents Hunters Property Group. He was was selected to fight the seat last July.

Labour MP Shahid Malik's notional majority in the constituency is slightly less than 5,000, and Hollinrake stated as he resigned that it is a seat the Conservatives should win.

Kevin Hollinrake adopted for Dewsbury

Kevin Hollinrake was selected at last night's Dewsbury open primary - beating Karen Woods for the opportunity to overturn Shahid Malik's projected Labour majority of 4,924.

Dewsbury open primary

Kevin Hollinrake and Karen Woods were selected from the shortlist to go through to the open primary on July 6th.

Deputy Editor

Dewsbury shortlist

Jo Barker, Mark Brooks, Kevin Hollinrake, Andrew Lee, Robert Light and Karen Woods have been shortlisted for Dewsbury, which has a notional Labour majority of just under 5000.

Deputy Editor