ConservativeHome's Seats & Candidates blog

Former Conservative MP defects to Labour

By Jonathan Isaby

It has emerged this morning that Andrew Pelling, the former Conservative MP for Croydon Central and ex-London Assembly Member for Croydon and Sutton has joined the Labour Party.

A Croydon councillor between 1982 and 2006 and a GLA Member between 2000 and 2008, he was elected Conservative MP for Croydon Central in 2005, but after difficulties in his personal life was suspended from the Tory whip in 2007.

He then went on to stand as an Independent in the constituency at the 2010 general election (polling a little over 3,000 votes), claiming that being an Independent meant he was "now just a politician who ‘takes up local issues’, which is no bad thing".

But he has now joined Labour, which, as the Croydon Guardian reports, will "come as no surprise, as Mr Pelling has been rubbing shoulders with Labour since becoming an outcast from the Conservatives".

He tells the paper:

"I may have endured a difficult journey to get to this point but it has not been a difficult decision to join Labour. On a national level, the Labour Party have got it right on the economy. The Conservatives are cutting too deep and too fast.

"I found the Conservative Party in Parliament to be a party of privilege with little empathy for Croydon. With a few notable individual exceptions in the Conservative Party it was the Labour Party who showed compassion and concern for me in difficult times for me personally. I was very touched by this."

Andrew Pelling MP confirms he is standing as an independent in Croydon Central

He was elected as a Conservative but was suspended from the party while he was investigated regarding allegations made by his wife. At the end of 2007 he announced that he would not be seeking re-election - a decision he has today reversed.

Gavin Barwell, the Tory candidate for the seat, has responded to the news:

"I am obviously disappointed at his decision, though it is hardly a surprise (someone purporting to be his election agent attended the recent election agents' meeting and has distributed a letter in parts of the constituency asking for £20,000 to pay for his campaign).

Being an MP shouldn't be a career, it should be about championing the things you believe in. Sadly Andrew has clearly decided that the job is more important to him than the Conservative values he has championed so effectively for the last 30 years.

My message to people who want more police on our streets, who want to keep an A&E Department at Mayday, who want action to control immigration is clear: voting for Andrew won't achieve any of these things. It will simply split the anti-Labour vote and risks getting you a Labour MP and five more years of Gordon Brown. There will only be a change of government after the election if another party has more MPs than Labour. The Conservative Party is the only party with a realistic chance of doing that. So if you're not happy with things at the moment, if you want change, you need to vote Conservaitve."

The seat has a projected Labour majority of 317. Mr Pelling's selfish decision will make it harder to see Gavin Barwell elected.

Bob Spink MP is another ex-Tory MP who is standing in his own seat - Castle Point - against the official Conservative candidate.

Tim Montgomerie

The battle for the London marginals

A YouGov poll published in yesterday's Evening Standard looked at the likelihood of Conservative gains in London at the general election.

The poll, conducted across the capital during the last week or so of February (Anthony Wells has a note on the methodology), put the Conservatives on 39%, Labour on 35% and the Lib Dems on 17%.

This equates to a swing to the Conservatives from Labour of 5.5% since 2005 and if the seats fell in the order in which they appear on the target list (as compiled by Profs Rallings and Thrasher), those in bold on the lists below would be gained as of today.

However, given that I understand the poll to have been taken across the whole of London rather than just in the battleground seats, I suspect that - as is the case in national polls - the Conservatives are doing even better in the seats that count.

The Wandsworth factor and demographic change go in favour of making Tooting a Tory gain for Mark Clarke and the loss of Labour votes to the BNP looks like going to aid Simon Jones' campaign to oust Jon Cruddas in Dagenham and Rainham; "Mr Expenses", Alan Keen, is more vulnerable than the figures suggest in Feltham and Heston (the current projection shows his wife, Ann, being defeated in neighbouring Brentford and Isleworth); Tory candidate Ed Northover wrote only this week about his efforts to win Leyton and Wanstead from Labour, whilst ConservativeHome has previously noted the energetic campaign being waged by Chris Philp in the redrawn Hampstead and Kilburn seat where he is now in genuine contention.

The Labour seats on the Conservative target list in London (those in bold would be gained based on the results of yesterday's YouGov poll)

NB: Both Enfield North and Finchley & Golders Green are deemed to be notionally Conservative held seats already after boundary changes, which is why they were not included on the below list.

• Croydon Central*
• Battersea
• Ealing Central and Acton
• Westminster North
• Harrow East
• Eltham
• Hendon
• Brentford and Isleworth
• Hammersmith
• Poplar and Limehouse
• Tooting
• Dagenham and Rainham
• Harrow West
• Ealing North
• Feltham and Heston
• Dulwich and West Norwood
• Brent North
• Ilford South
• Leyton and Wanstead
• Lewisham East
• Holborn and St Pancras
• Hampstead and Kilburn

* Currently has a Tory MP, but boundary changes suggest to be notionally Labour-held)

The Lib Dem seats on the Conservative target list in London (those in bold would be gained based on the results of yesterday's YouGov poll)

• Carshalton and Wallington
• Sutton and Cheam
• Richmond Park
• Kingston and Surbiton
• Twickenham

Jonathan Isaby

Labour is reportedly aiming to stop Green voters from switching to the Conservatives

One of the many things David Cameron has done during his four years as Tory leader has been to make the party greener and make it more environmentally aware. It is probably best illustrated by the decision to stand for Parliament of former Ecologist editor Zac Goldsmith, who was co-chairman of the party's Quality of Life policy group (not all of whose recommendations were accepted as policy, of course).

And according to today's Independent on Sunday, it would seem that Labour are worried that the Conservatives are now well placed to win the votes of former Green Party backers.

The paper reports that Labour is intending to try and highlight divisions with Conservative Party over climate change in the top Tory target seats where the Green Party won more than 2% of the vote at the last election - in the hope of stopping Green supporters from switching to back the Conservatives and helping to deliver a Tory majority in the Commons.

Labour is apparently planning to use this tactic in the following list of constituencies, according to the Independent, which only covers the seats the Conservatives need to gain to win a majority of one (hence certain seats with a strong Green presence such as Brighton Pavilion and Norwich South are not included):

• Battersea (Lab)
• Birmingham Edgbaston (Lab)
• Bradford West (Lab)
• Brentford & Isleworth (Lab)
• Brighton Kemptown (Lab) 
• Calder Valley (Lab)
• Carshalton & Wallington (LD)
• Cheltenham (LD)
• Colne Valley (Lab)
• Croydon Central (Con held, but notionally Lab under new boundaries)
• Devon North (LD)
• Edinburgh South (Lab) 
• Finchley & Golders Green (Lab) 
• Hastings & Rye (Lab)
• Hereford & South Herefordshire (LD)
• Hove (Lab)
• Leeds North West (LD)
• Milton Keynes North (Con held, but notionally Lab under new boundaries)
• Milton Keynes South (Lab)
• Ochil & South Perthshire (Lab) 
• Oxford West & Abingdon (LD)
• Poplar & Limehouse (Lab)
• Reading West (Lab)
• Richmond Park (LD) 
• Stirling (Lab)
• Stroud (Lab)
• Swindon South (Lab)
• Tooting (Lab)
• Watford (Lab)
• Waveney (Lab)
• Worcester (Lab)

If Labour are seriously intending using their limited campaign budget to try and stop Green sympathisers from voting for Zac Goldsmith in Richmond Park, they have rather more resources at their disposal than I imagined...

Jonathan Isaby 

Gavin Barwell adopted for Croydon Central

Gavin Barwell was adopted yesterday evening for Croydon Central, projected Labour majority of 317.

Gavin is a local councillor and a key aide to Lord Ashcroft's target seats programme.  He beat Lindsay Frost, Lynn Hale and Mimi Harker to the nomination.

***
ConservativeHome has learnt that approximately 48 hours ago, Mimi Harker was instructed by CCHQ to choose between Croydon Central and her place on the South East England MEP candidates' list.  Ms Harker chose to contest Croydon but it is a shame that CCHQ couldn't have waited until 10pm last night.  If Ms Harker had been successful in her Westminster ambitions it wouldn't have been too late to then top up the SE list.  There is nothing in the rules that prevents a candidate pursuing Westminster and European opportunities at the same time.

Finalists for Croydon Central

Three local Croydon councillors - Gavin Barwell, Lindsay Frost and Lynn Hale - plus Mimi Harker have been shortlisted for Croydon Central and its projected Labour majority of 317.  The seat is currently represented by Andrew Pelling, who is stepping down for personal reasons.

Applications open for Croydon Central

Applications are open for the seat being vacated by Andrew Pelling MP - the projected Labour majority (because of boundary changes) is 317.

CCHQ is saying that the closing date for applications is 2pm on Monday 21st January.

'Local candidates' are advised to confirm deadlines, however, because of what Lee Rotherham experienced (noted here).

Andrew Pelling 'chooses' not to stand at next election

The Croydon Advertiser has this exclusive:

"Andrew Pelling has told his party he does not want to stand at the next general election.  The Croydon Central MP was today (Monday) told he was no longer suspended by the Tory party.

But in a letter to his constituency party, he revealed he will not be seeking re-selection as a Conservative candidate.   His decision ends months of speculation since he was suspended from the Tory party in September after his 26-year-old wife, Lucy, told police he had assaulted her.

Mr Pelling, 48, told the local party in a letter: "This will bring to an end 28 years of representing Croydon constituents in political office.   "I and my Parliamentary office staff will be looking forward to giving the same high standard of service to constituents in the coming years, up to the general election, as we have given to date."   He adds: "It has been very rewarding to receive so many kind messages of support and thanks from constituents for the work that we have done for them over the past two years."

The letter was today delivered to Croydon Central constituency chairman, Councillor Richard Chatterjee. Cllr Chatterjee told the Advertiser: "We are not looking immediately for a replacement candidate. "The timing will be down to the national party."

The scandal first broke in September, after Lucy told police her husband had beaten her up.  Mr Pelling was arrested at his home in Croham Valley Road, South Croydon, and bailed to return to Croydon police station once officers had completed their investigations.  The Tory party also withdrew the whip from him, effectively suspending him from the party.

However, in October he was informed no charges would be pressed.  Since then, several sources have told the Advertiser the couple are on the brink of a reconciliation.  However, Mr Pelling has refused to speak out since his arrest.   He has also been notable by his absence at several public events, most notably Croydon's Remembrance Sunday service.  And he pulled out of going to the South Norwood Spirit of the Community festival just hours before he was due to open it on November 17.  His many absences have led to growing concerns about his health, which is believed to be one of the reasons why the Tory whips' office has been slow in coming to a decision on his future."

Andrew Pelling MP's suspension still in place

We learnt yesterday that Andrew Pelling will not face charges from the policy after he had been accused of assaulting his wife.  A Metropolitan Police Officer said:

"A 48-year-old man from Croydon who was arrested on September 18 in connection with allegations of assault has been released from police bail with no further action.  A thorough investigation was carried out by the community safety unit at Croydon.  A report was sent to the Crown Prosecution Service, as is routine, and the CPS has taken the decision not to press charges."

This morning's News of the World reports, however, that Mr Pelling remains suspended by the Conservative Party.  Tory Chief Whip Patrick McCloughlin has to complete his own separate enquiry before Mr Pelling can be readmitted to the parliamentary party.

Andrew Pelling is suspended

The Conservative leadership has suspended Andrew Pelling's party membership following his second wife's allegation that the MP for Croydon Central had assaulted her.

Last week ConservativeHome encouraged the Conservative Party to take decisive action and welcome this suspension.

The Daily Mail and Independent have the story.

Andrew Pelling's wife attacks the "Dishonourable Member for Croydon Central"

It gets worse for Andrew Pelling MP.

Lucy Pelling, the Croydon Central MP's second wife who accused him of assault last week, has been interviewed for the News of the World (unpaid) and has made damaging claims about her husband:

• She claims he considered defecting to Labour or the Liberal Democrats;
• She claims that he believes that most "normal" people prefer Gordon Brown to David Cameron and that the party was led by an old Etonian boys club;
• She claims he looks down on his "chav" constituents and refused to have his baby born in the local hospital because it was "not good enough for him".

A leader in the News of the World pours more criticism on Mr Pelling's head.  The newspaper calls him a "super-snob" and a "Dishonourable Member".  If he stands again for election, the newspaper writes, "we trust his constituents will remember what he thinks of them when he goes begging for their votes."

We still do not know Mr Pelling's side of the story but it's clear that the storm surrounding him is not going away.

On Friday ConservativeHome called for the party to mount an Ethics investigation into Mr Pelling's conduct.  It is more vital than ever that that investigation takes place.

Tory HQ must act quickly to establish if Andrew Pelling is fit to remain a Conservative candidate

There's more coverage about Andrew Pelling MP today...

• The Times: Tory's political career in ruins after 'assault' on pregnant wife
• Daily Mail: The Tory love rat accused of beating his pregnant wife
• Telegraph: It's over, says wife of MP in 'assault' claim

This is obviously a sensitive issue because Mr Pelling has not yet been found guilty of anything but CCHQ shouldn't wait for the normal police and legal processes to conclude.  Mr Pelling's parliamentary majority is just 75 and a General Election could be imminent.  There is a real danger that his alleged conduct will not only endanger his own Croydon Central seat but the fortunes of other London Conservatives, too.  Tory failure to act against Neil Hamilton in 1997 produced endless bad publicity for the whole Conservative Party.

The Tory whips and, if necessary, the Conservative Party's Ethics and Integrity Committee, would be wise to act quickly.  It may be that the police will choose not to act but there may still be grounds to believe that Mr Pelling's conduct falls short of the standards that should be expected of a Conservative MP.  If such an investigation does take place and discovers that the case against Mr Pelling has been exaggerated by the media, it will also help to clear Mr Pelling's name more quickly than otherwise - at least in the minds of local Tory activists.

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