ConservativeHome's Seats & Candidates blog

Neil Reddin: Can the LibDems take hope from Bromley in the battle for Henley?

Neil Reddin, a Councillor in the London Borough of Bromley, looks at the upcoming LibDem Vs Tory by-election to succeed Boris Johnson.

It is difficult to say this, but one has to give the Lib Dems credit... some of them really are eternal optimists. I guess you’d have to be as a member of that party, forever trying to believe that you really are the third force in British politics, even if that force’s greatest achievement in the last thirty years has been to help keep Mrs Thatcher in power for a decade by splitting the left-wing vote (which proves the LibDems, in their various incarnations over the years, are useful for something).

That optimism has been seen recently on Lib Dem sites such as LibDem Voice, despite their uninspiring result in Crewe and Nantwich, as they look ahead to the Henley by-election. The motto for the activists seems to be “remember Bromley”. Against all the signs that the Conservative by-election machine has now been properly tuned up, and that the political landscape for the Lib Dems has changed, they seem to think that it’ll come right for them. So, are there any grounds for their optimism, or are they more like the outdated generals, comforted by the false hope that the horses of the cavalry will somehow win the battle against the modern tanks and machine guns, just like they used to against muskets and swords.

Firstly, let’s look at the similarities between Bromley & Chislehurst (where my own ward partly lies, currently) and Henley.

Bob Neill wins B&C selection

The London Assembly Member Bob Neill has been chosen to represent the Conservative Party in the Bromley and Chislehurst by-election.  The selection of Mr Neill, who has led the Tory group on the assembly and  represents Bexley and Bromley on the GLA, is a victory for the right of local associations to choose a local, non A-list candidate. 

Although two A-listers of the highest quality reached the final three, there will be some disappointment at Central Office.  CCHQ would have relished the prospect of a woman or an ethnic minority candidate (as telegenic as both Syed and Julia) representing the party in this first big parliamentary contest of the parliament.

Mr Neill will help to counter any suggestion by the LibDems that a candidate has been parachuted into B&C.  Mr Neill's more positive view of European integration might, however, boost Nigel Farage, UKIP's candidate.

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Final three in B&C

This is unconfirmed but ConservativeHome understands that the final three candidates for the Tory nomination for the seat of Bromley and Chislehurst are Bob Neill of the London Assembly and two A-listers: Syed Kamall MEP and Julia Manning.  Confirmed at 1655.

8pm: The selection meeting began at 7pm.  Martyn Lewis, the former newsreader, is hosting a Q&A style event.  There is no big speech (in accordance with the new selection guidelines).

Mrs Eric Forth wants to be B&C's next MP

Caroll Forth, Eric's widow, is one of the surprise contenders for the Bromley and Chislehurst by-election.  Mrs Forth is pictured on the right with Eric at a June 2005 event hosted by Conservative Way Forward.  Her name is revealed in today's London Evening Standard (not online) after some good investigative reporting by Paul Waugh.  Other contenders named in the LES are:

1. Colin Bloom, local councillor
2. Stephen Carr, local councillor
3. Michael Harris, chairman of association
4. Syed Kamall, London MEP
5. Mary Macleod, merchant banker
6. Julia Manning, optometrist
7. Bob Neill, leader of Tory group London Assembly
8. Colin Smith, local councillor

ConservativeHome has been told that former MP Tim Collins is also on the shortlist and has now been told he isn't (14.40).

Mrs Forth - only approved by CCHQ's parliamentary selection process yesterday - leads a strongly localist shortlist.  She joins three local councillors and the Association chairman as representatives of the immediate area.  The Evening Standard writes:

"Widows have succeeded their husbands as MP very rarely over the past century and Tories believe it would be first instance in their own party. Labour's Anne Cryer took on her husband Bob's former Keighley seat three years after he died in 1994. Labour MP Irene Adams took on Paisley in a 1990 by-election after husband Allen died.  Her election would also neatly get Mr Cameron another woman into Parliament, although not through the route he wanted. Mrs Forth is also disabled, suffering from a muscular disease."

"Mrs Forth's lack of campaigning experience makes her an outside bet," according to The Standard.  Forecasting constituency selection meetings is no science but the newspaper identifies Bob Neill and Michael Harris as favourites.

Related link: A-list won't rule in Bromley & Chislehurst.

A-list won't rule in Bromley & Chislehurst

CCHQ has confirmed that standard by-election procedeures will apply in the selection of the Tory candidate to fight for Eric Forth's seat of Bromley and Chislehurst.   The party's candidates committee will present the local party with a shortlist of suitable candidates after extensive consultation with the B&C Conservative Association.  This list will almost certainly include A-list candidates but it may also include local candidates such as GLA member Bob Neill.

CCHQ insist that this involves no climbdown - as has been suggested by today's Times newspaper - and that no precedent has been set for other constituencies to insist upon negotiating their own shortlists.

Nigel Farage is expected to be UKIP's candidate for B&C.

The LibDem campaign got off to a poor start after the party began mobilising its campaign activists ahead of yesterday's funeral for Mr Forth.  Sir Menzies Campbell then promised that no campaigning would begin until after the by-election writ had been moved.  Such a promise, if kept, would severely limit the LibDems' efforts to get a bandwagon of support behind their candidate.  Waiting until after the funeral would have been deemed respectful enough.

Assuming a Tory victory (but expecting some erosion of support given that numerous parties will contest the seat) these are the factors by which ConservativeHome will be judging the contest:

1. Will Team Cameron succeed in persuading the local party to choose a candidate who is in tune with the party leader's 'modern compassionate conservatism'?
2. Will Ming be able to revive his failing leadership by being associated with a campaign that eats into the Tories' share of the vote?
3. How low will Labour go?
4. Will the BNP stand and how will they fare?
5. Will the Greens stand and put in a strong showing on the back of the increasing interest in environmental issues?
6. Can UKIP benefit from any right-wing unhappiness at the Cameron project?

Related link: The battle for Bromley & Chislehurst

The battle for Bromley and Chislehurst

Today's Times reports that local association "allies" of Eric Forth will "attempt to honour Mr Forth’s memory by seeking out another independent thinker to represent them".  Yesterday Guido thought that "it would be something of an insult to select a touchy-feely, tree-hugging A-lister for his seat."  "No doubt," he continued, "his true-blue Bromley and Chislehurst constituency Conservative association will make up their own minds and honour his memory with an appropriately Thatcherite successor."

There are some Thatcherites on the A-list.  Howard Flight stands out. 

Bromley and Chislehurst (Tory majority 13,342 with Labour and LibDems close to each other respective second and third places) may be inclined to seek a local candidate, however, and ignore the A-list.  The Times mentions GLA Bexley and Bromley member Bob Neill.  Mr Neill reportedly has "a strong local following" but he's not on the A-list.  CCHQ, The Times continues, wants a female candidate and Elizabeth Truss’s name is being mentioned.

If you have intelligence on Bromley & Chislehurst and would like to report on the selection race for ConservativeHome please email [email protected].

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