By Jonathan Isaby
I'm only just catching up with an opinion poll published north of the border on Sunday in advance of the Scottish Parliament election taking place on May 5th.
According to the Sunday Herald, the Scottish Green Party commissioned YouGov to carry out the survey of 1,258 Scottish adults on February 21st and 22nd, which came up with the following findings among those who are certain to vote:
Constituency vote
- Labour - 41% (+8.8 on 2007)
- SNP - 32% (-0.9)
- Conservatives - 15% (-1.6)
- Lib Dems - 8% (-8.2)
- Others - 4% (+1.9)
Regional list vote
- Labour - 40% (+10.8 on 2007)
- SNP - 26% (-5)
- Conservatives - 15% (+1.1)
- Lib Dems - 7% (-3.3)
- Greens - 6% (+2)
- Others - 5% (-5.6)
The Scotlandvotes.com translates these numbers into a Scottish Parliament comprising:
- Labour - 59 (+13)
- SNP - 35 (-12)
- Conservatives - 19 (+2)
- Lib Dems - 9 (-7)
- Greens - 6 (+4)
- Independent - 1
This would leave Labour six seats short of an overall majority at Holyrood, giving them the option of trying to govern alone as the SNP have done these last four years, or considering forming a coalition with one of more of the smaller parties.
