ConservativeHome's Seats & Candidates blog

Academic study demonstrates how AV benefits the Lib Dems

By Jonathan Isaby

Five weeks before referendum day, tonight's Evening Standard has picked up on some academic research which seeks to demonstrate how the political map would have looked different if the last election had been fought under AV.

It finds that the following constituencies across London and the South East would have been won by different parties:  

Conservative seats which Labour would have won

• Brentford and Isleworth
• Hendon

Conservative seats which the Lib Dems would have won

• Oxford West and Abingdon
• Reading East
• St Albans
• Watford

Labour seats which the Lib Dems would have won

• Islington South and Finsbury
• Lewisham West
• Oxford East
• Streatham

Jane Hunt selected as Conservative candidate for Leicester South by-election

By Jonathan Isaby

At the end of last week I expained that there will be four ballot papers issued to voters in Leicester South on May 5th, one of which will be for the parliamentary by-election.

And on Saturday Jane Hunt was selected as Conservative candidate for the contest.

Jane contested neighbouring Leicester East at last year's general election, where she attained a 4.8% swing in her favour from Labour's sitting MP, Keith Vaz.

She has lived in Leicestershire since 1995 and is a member of Charnwood Borough Council, where she has previously served as Cabinet Member for Change Management and Youth Sport as well as Champion for Children and Young People and Champion for Play.

She is also a Governor of a High School and sits on several charities as a Trustee. Married with two children, she has worked as a civil servant, a senior manager in commercial business, for a national charity and is currently caseworker for an MP.

Jackie Whiteley announced as Conservative Parliamentary Spokesman for Rotherham

By Jonathan Isaby

In the last few days, Jackie Whiteley has been announced as Conservative Parliamentary Spokesman for Rotherham in South Yorkshire.

She contested the seat at the 2010 general election, increasing the Conservative vote to 16.7% and leap-frogging the Lib Dems to take second place.

There is no by-election immediately in the offing, but the man who retained the seat for Labour at the general election, Denis MacShane, has been without his party's whip since last October after the parliamentary Standards watchdog referred him to the police over his use of parliamentary alowances.

Jackie Whiteley said:

“It is a real privilege to be the Parliamentary Spokesman for Rotherham. Having previously campaigned in the seat at the general election and as the owner of a small business, I have got a real understanding of the issues and concerns of Rotherham’s residents and local businesses.  I will continue to campaign passionately for jobs, investment and a brighter future for the community.”

By-election candidate shortlist announced for Leicester South, where voters will have four votes on May 5th

By Jonathan Isaby

Voters in Leicester South are going to be deluged with ballot papers as they go to the polls on May 5th. They will be taking part in:

1. The AV referendum;
2. Local council elections;
3. Voting for the first elected Mayor for the city of Leicester; and
4. A by-election in the Leicester South parliamentary constituency.

The by-election has been caused by the decision of Labour MP Sir Peter Soulsby to resign and concentrate on his campaign to become the aforementoned elected Mayor.

Leicester Conservatives will select a candidate this Saturday from the following shortlist:

• Cllr Peter Bedford
• Cllr Jane Hunt
• Dr Teck Khong

Nick Bryars, the chairman of City of Leicester Conservative Association, tells ConHome:

"In Leicester we are currently fighting four election campaigns. These are the by-election in Leicester South, the Mayoral election, elections to Leicester City Council and the AV referendum. We are fighting against the Alternative Vote hard; we have excellent candidates in the local elections, a superb mayoral candidate in popular local councillor Ross Grant, and a brilliant parliamentary candidate shortlist.

"Come and help us in our fight against the domination of our city by Labour. We are organising extensive canvassing and leafleting right up until polling day on 5th May. Email me at [email protected] for details."

Leicester South was the scene of a by-election in 2004 when the Lib Dems temporarily snatched the seat from Labour, only for Sir Peter Soulsby to take it back in 2005. He held it last May with a majority of 8,808 over the Lib Dems. The full result was:

Labour - Sir Peter Soulsby                    21,479  45.6% (+6.2)
Liberal Democrat - Parmjit Singh Gill    12,671  26.9% (-3.7)
Conservative - Ross Grant                    10,066  21.4% (+3.6)
BNP - Adrian Waudby                             1,418    3.0% (+3.0)
Green - Dave Dixey                                    770   1.6% (-1.6)
UKIP - Christopher Lucas                           720   1.5% (+1.5)

Labour have already selected Jonathan Ashworth as their candidate, whilst the ex-Lib Dem MP Parmjit Singh Gill yesterday curiously stood down as their candidate five days after being reselected, according to Lib Dem Voice, and the yellow rosette will instead be donned by one Zuffar Haq.

Boundary Commission confirms that seat reductions will be greater in Labour-dominated regions

Tim Montgomerie

Two weeks ago I wrote that the Conservative Party had, at an optimistic estimate, gained 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, TWENTY new MPs because of the passage of the Parliamentary Voting and Constituencies Bill.

The number of seats being lost in each part of the UK has now been confirmed:

• Wales 10
• NW England: 7
• Scotland: 7
• London: 5
• West Midlands: 5
• Yorkshire and Humber: 4
• NE England: 3
• Eastern England: 2
• East Midlands: 2
• Northern Ireland 2
• SE England: 2
• SW England: 2

That's a total reduction of 51.

It's clear why Labour peers fought so hard against this Bill. It means fewer Labour strongholds in the likes of Barnsley. It goes a long way to addressing the pro-Labour bias within the existing electoral geography.

Labour hold Barnsley Central as Lib Dems fall to sixth place and lose deposit

By Jonathan Isaby

In the early hours of this morning the result of yesterday's Barnsley Central by-election came through, with Labour, as widely anticipated, holding the seat with a comfortable majority.

Howvere, the headline on which the media are seizing ("humiliated" is the popular adjecitve of choice) is the fact that the Lib Dems dropped from second place at the general election to sixth place yesterday, behind the BNP, and losing their deposit in the process.

The Conservatives retained the third place attained last year, albeit with UKIP leapfrogging to take second place.

The full result was:

Dan Jarvis (Lab) 14,724 (60.80%, +13.53%)
Jane Collins (UKIP) 2,953 (12.19%, +7.53%)
James Hockney (C) 1,999 (8.25%, -9.01%)
Enis Dalton (BNP) 1,463 (6.04%, -2.90%)
Tony Devoy (Ind) 1,266 (5.23%, +3.58%)
Dominic Carman (LD) 1,012 (4.18%, -13.10%)
Kevin Riddiough (Eng Dem) 544 (2.25%)
Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 198 (0.82%)
Michael Val Davies (Ind) 60 (0.25%)

Lab majority 11,771 (48.60%)
Turnout 24,219 (37.00%, -19.46%)

Nigel Adams MP: Help make Labour pay for their negative, backward-looking, disingenuous campaign in Barnsley Central

Nigel Adams MP is campaign manager for the Conservative candidate, James Hockney, in Barnsley Central.

As we enter the last 48 hours of the by-election campaign in Barnsley Central, it’s no surprise with so little to offer the people of Barnsley that Labour are resorting to the past to hold on to the seat, as the picture on the right shows.

We know that Labour have let Barnsley down. Despite the Labour Council doubling council tax since 1997, it has wasted money on a number of things, including £1.9 million spent on publicity and £30,000 on the arty timepiece on the Civic Centre. And it paid the council’s chief executive £161,000 last year, more than even the Prime Minister.

Labour campaign literature claims the “Labour Party offers a credible alternative to David Cameron” but Ed Miliband has shown since becoming leader that he has no credible polices to deal with the mess his party has left the country in and has admitted himself his policies are a “blank sheet of paper”.  We have all heard his claims of “New Politics. Fresh Ideas” but when it comes down to it, all he can fill his “blank sheet of paper” with is the past whilst offering nothing for the future.

You would have hoped that Ed Miliband’s promise of a ‘new generation’ would have something credible to offer the people of Barnsley that they have so badly let down.  Clearly, that is too much to hope for.

So, please help us hold Labour to account.  Come up to Barnsley Central and help out James Hockney’s campaign in the final push to the close of polls at 10pm tomorrow, and make Labour pay for their negative, disingenuous campaign.

Anyone wishing to assist James's campaign today or on polling day tomorrow should email [email protected]. The campaign centre is situated at The Coach House, Berneslai Close (Off Churchfield), Barnsley, S70 2BQ, which is ten minutes from Barnsley railway station and easily accessible from the M1.

Latest YouGov poll suggests Labour will win the Scottish Parliament election, with the Lib Dems faring especially badly

By Jonathan Isaby

I'm only just catching up with an opinion poll published north of the border on Sunday in advance of the Scottish Parliament election taking place on May 5th.

According to the Sunday Herald, the Scottish Green Party commissioned YouGov to carry out the survey of 1,258 Scottish adults on February 21st and 22nd, which came up with the following findings among those who are certain to vote:

Constituency vote

• Labour - 41% (+8.8 on 2007)
• SNP - 32% (-0.9)
• Conservatives - 15% (-1.6)
• Lib Dems - 8% (-8.2)
• Others - 4% (+1.9)

Regional list vote

• Labour - 40% (+10.8 on 2007)
• SNP - 26% (-5)
• Conservatives - 15% (+1.1)
• Lib Dems - 7% (-3.3)
• Greens - 6% (+2)
• Others - 5% (-5.6)

The Scotlandvotes.com translates these numbers into a Scottish Parliament comprising:

• Labour - 59 (+13)
• SNP - 35 (-12)
• Conservatives - 19 (+2)
• Lib Dems - 9 (-7)
• Greens - 6 (+4)
• Independent - 1

This would leave Labour six seats short of an overall majority at Holyrood, giving them the option of trying to govern alone as the SNP have done these last four years, or considering forming a coalition with one of more of the smaller parties.