Tim Montgomerie
Over at The Spectator David Blackburn writes: "The coalition would have won in Oldham East had it fielded just one candidate."
Really?
Let's just take a look at the numbers...
- Debbie Abrahams for Labour won 14,718 votes.
- Elwyn Watkins for the Liberal Democrats won 11,160 and Conservative Kashif Ali won 4,481 making a total of 15,641.
On the face of it that would translate into a Coalition majority of 923.
But would every Tory voter and every Lib Dem voter support a Coalition candidate?
For David Blackburn's statement to be true you'd need 94% of Tory and LibDem voters to support the Coalition candidate and none of the other 6% to support the Labour candidate. I just don't think that would happen.
Last week an Angus Reid poll found that only 83% of Tory voters would support a Coalition candidate and the number of LibDem voters who would do the same would be even lower.
I've heaped praise on Mark Pritchard for opposing Coalition candidates but he has shot his own argument in the foot in the last 24 hours by backing such candidates in by-elections. We need the Conservative Party to fight every seat in every part of the country. Coalition candidates in by-elections would offend many of our core supporters.