By Jonathan Isaby
1.53am RESULT - LAB HOLD
Debbie Abrahams (Labour) - 14,718 (42.1%; +10.3%)
Elwyn Watkins (Liberal Democrat) - 11,160 (32.0%; +0.3%)
Kashif Ali (Conservative) - 4,481 (12.8%; -13.6%)
Paul Nuttall (UKIP) - 2,029 (5.8%; +2.0%)
Derek Adams (BNP) - 1,560 (4.5%; -1.3%)
Peter Allen (Green) - 530 (1.5%)
The Flying Brick (Monster Raving Loony Party) - 145 (0.4%)
Stephen Morris (English Democrats) - 144 (0.4%)
Loz Kaye (Pirate Party) - 96 (0.3%)
David Bishop (Bus-Pass Elvis Party) - 67 (0.2%)
Labour majority: 3,558
Lib Dem to Lab swing of 5.0%
Con to Lab swing of 11.9%
Turnout: 48.1%
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The polls closed at 10pm in Oldham East and Saddleworth and with the result expected around 1.30am I will try and pull together the rumours that are doing the rounds about the result.
As of 11.45pm:
- Turnout is said to be between 40% and 45%.
- Labour insider John McTernan is predicting a victory for his candidate by 5,000.
- Tory campaign manager Andrew Stephenson is quoted by The Guardian's Andrew Sparrow as saying: "Things have not gone as we would have hoped... Whoever starts in third place is going to get squeezed... It appears that our vote has been squeezed quite strongly, particularly by the Lib Dems."
Midnight: LabourList predicts Labour majority of "between 3 and 5,000"
12.10am Tim Farron, Lib Dem President, tells Sky News that they have come "a decent second"
12.12am Joey Jones from Sky News say turnout is "just over 48%"
12.30am Laura Kuenssberg on the BBC says Labour majority could be "up to 3,000"
12.35am Tory Deputy Chairman Michael Fallon on the BBC is singing from the same hymn sheet as Andrew Stephenson: "If you're the third party in a by-election you get squeezed"
12.40am Turnout formally confirmed as 48.06%.
12.41am Andy Burnham still downplaying expectations: "It's looking promising, it's not in the bag yet"
12.50am Andrew Sparrow predicts "a Labour majority of at least 4,500"
1.05am On the BBC, Andrew Stephenson says nine Cabinet ministers visited during the campaign and that there were 300 Tory activists in the seat last Saturday. He says that the Tory position has slipped from the general election but insists the Tories have held a "reasonable third place".
1.12am Debbie Abrahams, Labour candidate and now certain to be the newest MP in the Commons, has arrived at the count. She is greeted with a bouquet of flowers...
1.35am Conservative sources estimate the parties' votes "crudely" as Lab 14,000, Lib Dem 10,000 and Con 4,000, with UKIP in fourth place. They point to the fact that Labour have started third in four by-elections over the last 13 years while they were in government - Winchester, Romsey, Cheadle and Henley - and lost their deposits at all of those contests. The Conservatives tonight are "nowehere close" to losing the deposit like that.
